Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the A-share market, highlighting the fluctuations in major indices and sector performances, particularly in consumer electronics and HBM concepts, while noting the decline in AI applications and certain real estate stocks [3]. Market Performance - As of the midday session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.49%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index initially surged over 2% before settling at a 0.56% gain [3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 466 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,300 stocks rising [4]. Sector Highlights - The consumer electronics sector saw a rise of 2.28%, while the HBM concept led the gains with a 2.62% increase [4]. - The solid-state battery concept also performed well, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the market [3]. - The AI application sector continued to show weakness, indicating potential challenges in this area [3]. Notable Stocks - In the pork concept sector, stocks like Jin Xin Nong and Tian Yu Bio experienced significant gains, with Jin Xin Nong hitting the daily limit [5]. - Semiconductor stocks such as Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC saw increases of over 5% and 3%, respectively, reflecting strong performance in the tech sector [6]. - New Energy and AI concept stocks also showed strength, with New Yi Sheng rising by 7% and Yangguang Electric Power increasing by nearly 5% [7]. Additional Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market opened with a slight increase, with the Hang Seng Technology Index expanding its gains [12]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, indicating ongoing liquidity management [13]. - The Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since October 2024 [14].

2025年收官脚步渐进，A股市场从前期反弹进入4000点附近震荡整固阶段。期间市场结构性特征愈发鲜 明，AI算力产业链成领涨先锋，半导体芯片受AI需求大增、国产替代提速影响，设备、特种材料环节 企业股价走出独立行情。站在当前时点，"AI投资是否过热"、"震荡期该坚守成长还是转向低估值"成为 市场核心关切，嘉实基金李涛表示，AI赛道并非短期概念炒作，而是有真实产业需求与业绩兑现支 撑；盲目从成长主线转向低估值板块易错失产业红利，更应关注成长领域内具备技术壁垒、盈利模式清 晰的优质企业。 李涛认为，当前A股权益资产的长期价值值得期待，而驱动市场向前的核心引擎，始终绕不开AI产业化 掀起的科技浪潮。这轮科技行情与过往有着本质区别，其一，AI是全球化的史诗级技术革命，并非局 部领域的短期热度，它既能重塑人类生产关系，更能在生存发展层面带来颠覆性变革，如今产业应用路 径已愈发清晰，海外多家AI相关企业的营收、利润与市值同步创下历史新高，印证了赛道的长期潜 力。 其二，中国企业在本轮AI浪潮中的参与度与话语权达到前所未有的高度，通过自主创新突破，国内已 构建起从芯片、大模型到云服务、生态系统的完整产业链，企业不仅能在业绩 ...

责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 经过连续几周的调整之后，科技股重拾升势，本周出现连续上攻。周三，创业板指数收涨超过2%，算 力芯片、医药板块表现活跃，特别是算力板块继续大涨引领两市，医药板块也表现强势。这轮行情在四 季度出现了反复震荡的走势，由于前期科技股涨幅较大，累积了较多的获利盘，所以在上证指数突破 4000点之后，多空分歧加大，前期获利较多的资金出现获利了结，也使得科技股一度出现大幅的调整。 在大盘突破4000点出现震荡的时候，建议投资者通过适度的调仓换股或是减仓前期涨幅较大的科技股来 降低持仓成本。 我国综合实力正在逐步提升，对于全球稳定起到更大的作用。我国"十五五"规划建议内容已经公布，重 点强调的是科技创新领域，包括具身智能、芯片半导体、算力算法、低空经济、固态电池、深海装备 等，这些都是未来重点发展的方向，也预计是这轮牛市行情的重要主线。一般来说，一月份信贷投放往 往是全年最大的一个月份，一季度随着春季资金的回流，加上四月份之前处于业绩空窗期，A股市场有 望出现"春季攻势"。市场有望进一步向上实现突破，带来较强的赚钱效应。建议投资者保持信心和耐 心，抓住A股和港股这轮慢牛长牛的机会，争取实现较好的 ...

每天10分钟，拆解新闻背后的逻辑。大家好，今天是2025年的11月25号星期二，我是董小姐。 1、"谷歌新剧本"，会扭转科技颓势吗？ 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、"谷歌新剧本"，会扭转科技颓势吗？ 2、国内资金压力，仍偏好保守打法 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 （文稿为机器转录，如有出入，请以音频为准） 今天A股整体走高，三大指数全线收红，板块呈现普涨，其中芯片、算力等硬件方向更是"跳涨"。如何 辨别这是昙花一现，还是确有坚实支撑？综合来看，国内算力硬件的异动仍需审慎观察，因为其核心推 力源自海外映射。 昨夜，人工智能龙头谷歌抛出一份"野心勃勃"的算力投资蓝图：计划每6个月将AI算力翻倍，4～5年内 提升1 000倍。消息一出，迅速点燃"谷歌链"，美、日、韩相关配套企业集体大涨，A股产业链亦跟随高 收。美股人工智能板块似乎借此摆脱"涨势终结"疑虑——英伟达之后，谷歌接过接力棒，市场开始憧 憬"二次上攻"。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows significant gains, particularly in the technology sector, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2.6% amid strong performances in AI hardware and related concepts [2][4]. Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.6% [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 149.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. Sector Highlights - AI hardware and CPO concepts experienced a broad rebound, with significant gains in glass fiber, liquid cooling, and copper-clad laminate concepts [2]. - The F5G concept led the sector gains with a rise of 5.70%, followed by optical communication and communication equipment sectors, which increased by 4.88% and 4.52%, respectively [3]. - The light communication concept saw a notable expansion, with companies like Guoke Technology and Tengjing Technology hitting historical highs [4]. Notable Stocks - Guoke Technology and Tengjing Technology both achieved maximum gains, with Guoke Technology hitting the daily limit and Tengjing Technology rising over 15% [4]. - Local stocks in Fujian, such as Xunxing Co., experienced a sharp rebound, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [5]. Investor Sentiment - The market sentiment remains positive, with over 4,900 stocks in the market showing gains [2][4].

来源：广发证券研究 我们认为美股短期将迎来修复：原因一：近期AI泡沫担忧、流动性吃紧与宏观不确定性三大利空因素 基本出尽。流动性层面，本周政府重新开门后，美元流动性问题已得到显著缓解。宏观层面，非农数据 的出炉部分扭转了过"鹰"的预期，短期降息预期扰动基本结束。原因二：目前美国"K型"经济和"金发姑 娘"经济情形并存，上述两种形态下，美股表现都不弱。 摘 要 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，预期增加5.2万人，前值修正为增加2.2万人，大超预期。失业率小 幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。从市场表现来看，投资者将该份非农报告解读为中 性偏弱。CME FEDWATCH数据显示，12月降息25bp的概率自39%回升至71%，前期因美联储重要官员 密集的鹰派发言导致市场的降息预期骤减，目前降息预期已回升至较高水平。 参考美国基本面和历史"软着陆"降息情形，12月降息紧迫性并不强：（1）从基本面来看，当前通胀仍 处温和回升的趋势，大幅走高的风险不强；就业方面，10月新增就业和裁员人数激增并存的背景下，就 业市场短期或将处于微妙的平衡，大幅走弱的风险较低；（2）从历史复盘来看，"软着陆"降息的 ...

来源：晨明的策略深度思考 作者：刘晨明/陈振威 报告摘要 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，预期增加5.2万人，前值修正为增加2.2万人，大超预期。失业率小幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。从 市场表现来看，投资者将该份非农报告解读为中性偏弱。CME FEDWATCH数据显示，12月降息25bp的概率自39%回升至71%，前期因美联储重要官员密集 的鹰派发言导致市场的降息预期骤减，目前降息预期已回升至较高水平。 参考美国基本面和历史"软着陆"降息情形，12月降息紧迫性并不强：（1）从基本面来看，当前通胀仍处温和回升的趋势，大幅走高的风险不强；就业方 面，10月新增就业和裁员人数激增并存的背景下，就业市场短期或将处于微妙的平衡，大幅走弱的风险较低；（2）从历史复盘来看，"软着陆"降息的幅度 约75-100bp，当前就业并未出现明显衰退的背景下，美联储可能短期将暂停降息，并为明年降息留足空间。但是从政策倾向来看，美联储官员内部分歧仍 存，在非农数据公布前以鹰派发声为主，但近日约翰威廉姆斯和哈塞特则明确支持12月继续降息。综合来看，12月是否降息仍然存在不确定性。 我们认为美股短期将迎来修复 ...

策 略 研 究 2025 年 11 月 22 日 调整是也只是"怀疑牛市级别" ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/11/17-25/11/22) 相关研究 《牛市两段论——申万宏源 2026 年 A 股投资策略》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、调整是"怀疑牛市级别"：AI 产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"，这神似 2014 年初的创业板、2018 年初的食品饮料、2021 年初的新能源。这种情况下，出现季度级别的"高位震荡"和"调整阶段"符合历史规律。 ⚫ 调整 ...

全球市场正陷入一场危险的集体焦虑，而唯一能打破这种僵局的恐怕只有英伟达。这家市值4.5万亿美元的芯片巨头将于美东时间周三 （北京时间周四凌晨）美股盘后公布三季度财报，这份财报将决定全球市场在今年最后几周的走向。 眼下，市场的紧张情绪正在蔓延：从比特币到科技股，从黄金到国债，从私募市场到企业债券，几乎所有资产类别都遭遇抛售压力。在 这样的背景下，投资者将目光聚焦在英伟达身上，这既是希望也是无奈。这家公司的业绩将直接反映科技巨头们数千亿美元AI投资的真 实回报。 目前，华尔街分析师普遍看好英伟达即将公布的财报，预计净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。 分析人士指出，如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩和四季度指引，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的 调整。正如华尔街人士所言，"这是一份英伟达走向如何，市场就走向如何的报告。" 值得注意的是，在市场高度集中风险下，英伟达作为标普500指数最大权重股和AI交易的中心，其业绩表现的重要性前所未有。但是有 市场人士指出，集中度风险在市场上行时令人兴奋，但在下行时可能变成噩梦。 英伟达：当前市场唯一的救赎者？ 一种更为阴郁的情绪正在市场蔓延，而只有英伟达能 ...

Market Overview - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including external pressures from the Federal Reserve's stance against recent interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions affecting market risk appetite [2][12] - The 4000-point level is not just a psychological barrier but also a significant technical resistance due to historical trapped positions since 2015, leading to market confidence issues [2][12] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a rapid rotation between sectors resulting in a general lack of profit-making opportunities [2][12] Short-term Market Sentiment - Despite the recent three-day decline, the market's risk is gradually being released, indicating that the short-term adjustment may be nearing its end [3][13] - There is no sign of panic selling, suggesting a healthy adjustment rather than a trend reversal [3][13] - Anticipation for two important meetings in December, which will set the economic policy for the next year, is high, potentially serving as a catalyst for market recovery [3][13] Economic Indicators - The October CPI stabilization indicates a recovery in economic momentum [3][13] - The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, with potential for further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions, which could provide ample liquidity support for the market [3][13] Sector Performance - AI application concept stocks have shown resilience, with significant gains in related sectors such as software development and semiconductor industries [8][11] - The cultural media sector, including gaming and entertainment, has also performed well, with a notable increase in stock prices despite broader market declines [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced approach to investment, focusing on sectors with strong performance indicators, including technology growth areas (semiconductors, AI themes) and cyclical industries (solar energy, batteries, chemicals) [4][14] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings support during market dips to optimize investment returns [4][14]