汪毅、王小琳、王正洁（汪毅长城证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 摘要 2025年9月15日-9月19日，A股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块表现相 对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息25bp靴子落地后 选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看，我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市场强势的科 技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行之中。 热点一：美联储9月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入9月以来，在美联储公布9月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期，以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9月17日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储2025年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市涨幅过快过 高，短期内部分资金趁着降息25bp利好的兑现而选择了获利了结。 9月美联储会议整体基调偏中性，释放了"预防 ...

投资要点： 投资建议：首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级，公司储存芯片+AI算力+能源协同发力，并购金泰克有望打开 AI 存储成长曲线。若假设金泰克并购成功完成，预计2025-2027 年开普云传统主业的收入分别为 7.19/9.53/11.91 亿元，金泰克的收入分别为38.40/72/100 亿元，按照PE 和PS 估值，最终给予公司2025 年传统业务175 倍PE，金泰克存储业务80 倍PE 估值，合理估值为202.23 亿元人民币，按发行股份前的 总股本摊薄对应目标价299.52 元。 25H1 盈利能力显著修复，研发投入筑牢技术护城河。公司2024 年短期业绩承压后，2025 年H1 收入约 1.60 亿元，同比增长2.99%，归母净利润约378 万元，同比大增123%，成功扭亏为盈，前期延迟项目逐 步落地带动恢复。AI 算力及大模型业务表现亮眼，2024 年实现收入1.24 亿元，较上年同比提升 949.4%。 本报告导读： 公司作为国内AI 数智化的行业领先者，收购金泰克切入储存业务，随着储存芯片行业迎来长期景气周 期，叠加公司AI+能源业务协同发力，未来业绩增速有望超预期。 AI 算力与数智能源产品 ...

Group 1 - Nikkei 225 index surged 4.75% to reach a historical high, while Hang Seng Index rose 9.3% during the holiday, indicating strong performance in overseas markets [1] - A-share market has a historical trend of over 70% probability of rising in the first week after National Day, with three main drivers identified for a potential rebound [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November has risen to 94%, leading to a shift of global funds from high-yield assets to emerging markets, with Chinese assets becoming a focal point [3] Group 2 - Domestic policies and liquidity are crucial for stabilizing the A-share market, with the central bank injecting 300 billion yuan in liquidity through reverse repos [5] - Various policy measures have been implemented, including tax refunds for semiconductor equipment purchases and consumer subsidies, creating a supportive environment for market recovery [5] - Industrial profits showed a significant turnaround, with a 20.4% year-on-year increase in August, ending three months of negative growth [5] Group 3 - The AI sector is experiencing growth, with AMD and OpenAI entering a multi-billion dollar partnership, driving global demand for computing power [7] - The penetration rate of domestic AI chips is expected to rise from 12% in 2024 to 28% in 2025, with private equity firms showing strong confidence in the technology sector [7] - Historical data indicates a 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first five trading days after National Day, with an average increase of 1.41% [7] Group 4 - Analysts suggest the market has entered a "fundamentally driven bull market phase," with technology leading the way, while consumer and financial sectors are expected to catch up [9] - Semiconductor equipment companies are likely to benefit from policy subsidies, with firms like North Huachuang and Changchuan Technology showing strong profit growth [9] - The valuation of technology stocks remains low, with the computer industry PE at 38 times, below the 50th percentile since 2015 [9] Group 5 - Consumer sectors such as liquor and new energy are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and foreign capital inflow, supported by fiscal subsidies [11] - Financial sectors, including brokerage firms and banks, are positioned to gain from improved market sentiment and increased trading volumes [11] - Concerns exist regarding whether high valuations in technology stocks have already priced in future growth, especially if foreign capital takes profits [11]

Group 1 - The A-share market is supported by continuous policy benefits and accelerated capital inflow, leading to a strong performance of the index [1][2] - Major public fund institutions believe that the A-share market has a stable operational foundation and reasonable valuation, providing sufficient confidence for medium to long-term growth [1][2][3] - The total market value of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, indicating a significant rise in quality enterprises and active market participation [2] Group 2 - The A-share index has reached a near 10-year high, with structural opportunities becoming more prominent, particularly in the technology sector [2][3] - The market is expected to maintain upward support due to overall economic stabilization and structural reforms, with investors likely to increase equity asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - Consumption and technology stocks, including sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are highlighted as key investment focuses [4] Group 3 - The AI and computing power sectors are seen as significant growth areas, with expectations for clear trends and investment opportunities emerging in the fourth quarter [5] - Investment strategies are focusing on new productivity-related fields, overseas expansion, and cost-effective consumption as the domestic economy improves [4][5]

[Table_Title] 轮动的盛宴 9 月，市场在波折中向上攀登。9 月 2-4 日，市场遭遇大幅调 整，稳市预期博弈&科技抱团松动是主要原因，9 月行情以波动 加剧开局。庆幸的是，资金对牛市的信心仍然坚实，指数随后 企稳回升。结构上，各类题材"百花齐放"，同时轮动加快。 AI 算力和半导体抱团松动后，固态电池、储能、机器人、半导 体材料设备、有色金属等均进入轮动范围。 ►权益：盛宴未散，但轮动参与难度提升 稳市&科技&反内卷底层逻辑的坚实，是牛市延续的原因。9月 2-4 日的大跌并未动摇这三条逻辑的根本，且一条新的线索— —美联储降息，正在酝酿过程中。 不过，当前市场也存在交易过于集中&个股点位普遍偏高的现 象，导致行情波动放大。在此环境下，资金不对指数行情做 预判，而更倾向于博弈题材行情，体现在主题和行业ETF资金 持续净流入。同时，这些题材轮动速度明显加快，且均带有 鲜明的特征，即高弹性&具备中长期叙事&与内需联系不多的 题材更受市场青睐。 [Table_Title2] 类权益月报 [Table_Summary] ►行情回顾：波折不改牛市底色 ►转债：场内外资金心态分歧，但依然具有向上机会 正股行情 ...

从资金面看，中泰证券（600918）认为，"十一"假期前的最后两个交易日，A股两融余额维持较高水 平，市场平均担保比例回升，表明多头资金整体看好节后走势。假期期间，全球各主要经济体股市多数 上涨，A股节后存在一定补涨空间。 明日，A股将迎来10月首个交易日。"十一"假期期间，外围市场普涨，投资者对A股节后表现较为期 待。 综合多家券商最新研判，A股"红十月"可期，背后支撑因素包括全球货币政策和财政政策双宽松、三季 报交易窗口到来提供更多投资机会等。机构认为，在继续坚守以AI为代表的科技成长主线同时，"反内 卷"等投资主题也有望持续带来布局机遇。 A股节后表现可期 回顾"十一"假期期间外围权益市场表现，美股、日股等主要市场整体反弹，提振了市场对A股节后表现 的预期。业内机构研判，A股"红十月"可期。 兴业证券判断，受全球货币政策和财政政策双宽松的政策预期提振，"十一"假期期间全球风险资产表现 亮眼，为节后A股行情演绎创造积极的宏观环境；从产业视角看，假期期间AI产业催化事件密集，显著 提振了市场对AI算力、存储及应用的信心。10月，A股市场进入三季报交易窗口，有望带动市场聚焦景 气线索，提供更多可挖掘的投资机会 ...

报告导读： 具身智能、算力产业链在 2025Q4 有望得到新的催化。 投资建议： 我们认为具身智能、算力供应链将成为汽车行业四季度的重要成长方向，同时欧盟碳排放政策将继续驱动欧洲新能源车市场持续增长。我们维持 行业"增持"评级。 人形机器人零部件等具身智能供应链仍有强催化涌现的潜力。 近年，多家汽车零部件公司已经成功转型为人形机器人供应链上的主力公司。我们认为：如果 特斯拉等头部人形机器人厂商 2025Q4 推出新一代产品，市场将调升 2026 年人形机器人产业链出货预期；如 2026 年全球人形机器人产量达到 10 万台， 预计对应的零部件市场容量将达到合计 100 亿人民币左右；其中核心零部件公司的营收、利润值得重视。 算力供应链部分领域兼有强成长性和供应紧缺性。 根据 AMD ， Open AI 与 AMD 达成战略合作，将在未来几年中投资建设合计达 6GW 的 AI 算力。汽车 工业此前已有多家公司在配套算力的柴发、液冷等领域取得显著进展。我们认为：随着全球算力 Capex 的进一步上调，柴发等紧缺领域的供应链重要性将得 到进一步提升；液冷等新能源车热管理零部件企业有优势的领域，相关企业的优势也将得到 ...

花旗指出，上调后的2026年资本开支增长预期为24%，显著高于目前20%的市场共识。报告预计，各大科技巨头将在第三季度业绩指引中反映这 一增量支出，整个AI基础设施产业链，包括半导体、硬件及其他基础设施供应商，都将从这轮加速投资中受益。 与此同时，花旗强调这轮AI投资浪潮与互联网泡沫存在本质区别。当前企业对AI服务需求的快速增长为投资提供了"明确的外部验证"，为投资循 环创造了关键的"出口"。花旗估计，到2030年AI算力需求将新增55GW全球电力容量，带来2.8万亿美元的增量AI算力支出。 花旗集团最新研究认为，人工智能基础设施的投资与部署正在以远超预期的速度"急剧加速"，这并非是2000年互联网泡沫的重演，其关键区别在 于真实存在的企业级需求为这轮投资热潮提供了"出口"，形成了价值验证的闭环。 据追风交易台消息，基于这一判断，花旗分析师大幅上调了对科技巨头的AI资本开支预测，将2026年的AI资本开支预测从4200亿美元上调至4900 亿美元。同时，到2029年的累计资本开支预测也从2.3万亿美元提升至2.8万亿美元。 花旗报告显示，AI基础设施建设正步入加速期。据Epoch AI数据，自2010年以来， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the debate on whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with many institutions favoring holding stocks due to historical trends indicating a higher probability of market gains post-holiday [1][4][6] - According to the analysis, the probability of the A-share market rising in the five trading days after the National Day holiday is 60%, and in a bull market, the post-holiday gains tend to be more sustained [4][5] - A significant portion of surveyed private equity firms, over 65%, prefer to hold a heavy or full position (over 70% allocation) during the holiday, reflecting a general optimism about market conditions [6][7] Group 2 - Historical data shows that in the last 15 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 10 of those years during the five trading days following the National Day holiday, indicating a trend of positive market performance [4][5] - Analysts suggest that external factors such as policies, liquidity, and market fundamentals will significantly influence the A-share market's performance after the holiday [5][9] - The investment sentiment for the fourth quarter is optimistic, with expectations of continued market challenges and opportunities in new sectors such as AI, robotics, and "anti-involution" themes [9][11] Group 3 - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to see significant changes influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, which may open up new investment opportunities [9][12] - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio, suggesting that investors should manage their positions dynamically based on market conditions and liquidity [7][10] - Specific sectors such as new energy, robotics, and semiconductors are highlighted as having structural growth potential, with recommendations for investors to focus on low-positioned opportunities with upward momentum [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate of whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with a prevailing optimism among institutions favoring stock holdings due to historical trends indicating a higher probability of market gains post-holiday [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Multiple brokerages, including CITIC Securities, suggest a 60% probability of A-share gains in the five trading days following the National Day holiday, particularly in a bull market where such gains tend to be sustained [1][4]. - A survey indicates that over 65% of private equity respondents prefer to hold a heavy or full position (over 70% allocation) during the holiday, reflecting confidence in market opportunities despite recent market fluctuations [1][5]. Group 2: Historical Trends and Analysis - Historical data shows that in the last decade, the probability of the A-share market rising after the National Day holiday is significant, with 10 out of 15 years seeing gains in the five trading days following the holiday [4][5]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a 72.86% probability of rising in the seven trading days post-holiday, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 65.71% [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Market Movements - Key factors affecting post-holiday A-share performance include policy changes, external events, liquidity conditions, and fundamental market conditions [5][6]. - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could support market gains, while tightening could lead to weakness [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Themes for Q4 - Institutions are optimistic about investment opportunities in Q4, with themes such as new sectors, AI, robotics, and "anti-involution" being highlighted as key areas of focus [1][8]. - Analysts predict that the market may challenge new highs, driven by anticipated policy changes and economic expectations related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][9]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - New sectors, including renewable energy, robotics, and semiconductors, are expected to maintain structural growth, presenting investment opportunities [9][10]. - Traditional sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and metals have already seen significant gains but still hold value due to improving demand and supply dynamics [10].