11 月经济数据解读 20251216 有较好的生产扩张表现。在服务业方面，总体服务生产指数虽有回落，但现代 服务业如信息传输、租赁和商务服务等维持较强韧性。 11 月份消费情况及 2026 年消费环境展望如何？ 11 月份商品消费因两新需求退坡及需求前置影响出现快速回落，从而带动社零 下行。但餐饮层面在年中低位后反弹明显，尽管本月小幅回落但总体表现可观。 从商品需求结构来看，今年商品需求结构主要围绕三条主线：生活必需品（如 粮油食品）、两新产业（如家电家具、通讯器材）以及部分升级类商品（如金 银珠宝）。其中，两新板块受电商节活动支撑，如手机电脑等消费电子维持较 好韧性，但家电家具、建筑装潢及汽车等其他两新板块需求增速自三季度以来 快速下行。 展望 2026 年，中共中央经济工作会议对两新政策有新的定调，大 概率将继续延续，为 2026 年商品需求提供边际支撑。同时，由于政策中心切 换及需求前置影响，预计 2026 年服务消费将成为新的动能，包括文旅出行、 养老托育及医疗保健等领域可能获得更多政策支持与发展空间。 摘要 11 月实际 GDP 增速约为 4%，与上期持平，但仍处于相对低位，供需 缺口收窄，供强需 ...

Group 1 - The capacity and inventory cycles are expected to bottom out and recover, enhancing the momentum of enterprise profit recovery [1][6][53] - The current capacity cycle has been in a downward trend since the second half of 2021 and is nearing its end, while the inventory cycle is also expected to transition from a bottoming phase to a replenishment phase within the year [1][2][11] - The recovery of the capacity cycle is typically driven by strong fiscal support policies, as seen in previous cycles [8][14] Group 2 - The downstream capacity cycle is approaching a turning point, with upstream capacity utilization still declining and the mining industry requiring more time for capacity reduction [2][15] - The inventory cycle shows significant differentiation across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, primarily due to varying demand improvements [2][15] - Demand improvements are concentrated in sectors with strong policy support, emerging industries, and export-oriented industries, while traditional sectors like real estate remain weak [15][16] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector is currently in a dual bottom phase for both capacity and inventory cycles, with the manufacturing capital expenditure declining significantly since its peak in 2021 [14][40] - The industrial sector is experiencing a passive destocking phase, with inventory levels expected to gradually recover as revenue growth improves [14][17] - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by policy support and increased consumer demand for electronics and vehicles [30][37] Group 4 - The downstream consumer manufacturing sector is also in a destocking phase, with revenue growth rebounding since the beginning of 2024 [40][48] - Specific industries within the downstream sector, such as agricultural and food processing, are entering active replenishment phases, indicating a positive outlook for inventory levels [48][49] - The overall economic recovery will depend on the strength of consumer and investment demand, which will gradually transmit to the production side [53]