"7月生产的韧性是带动企业利润降幅收窄的主要动能，同时工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）和利润率边际改善促进利润回升。"中国银河证券首席宏 观分析师张迪告诉智通财经。 记者 王珍 他指出，生产端看，7月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7%，虽然同比增速下滑1.1个百分点，但从历史季节性上来看仍然高于过去5年同期均值。 同时在中美关税谈判还没有预期的情况下，"抢出口"和"抢两新"带动整体工业增加值。7月，我国出口商品增速为7.2%，高于过去十年出口增速同 期均值（3.6%）。 国家统计局数据显示，今年1-7月，规模以上工业企业利润累计同比下跌1.7%，较1-6月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，7月下降1.5%，跌幅较上月大幅 收窄2.8个百分点。 张迪还表示，"反内卷"效果在原材料价格中有所体现，煤炭开采和洗选业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、光伏设备及元器件制造、水泥制造、锂 离子电池制造价格环比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9、1.5、0.8、0.3和0.1个百分点，合计对PPI环比的下拉影响比上月减少0.14个百分点。 从结构上看，在"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策持续发力之下，新动能行业尤其是装备制造业对利润增长贡 ...

Core Insights - The "Two New" initiative, which refers to large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of old consumer goods, is driving significant investment growth and increased consumption in related sectors [1] Investment Growth - In the first half of this year, investments in the consumer goods manufacturing industry closely related to the "Two New" initiative have seen rapid growth [1] - As of July 25, the implementation of the old-for-new policy has led to a cumulative sales figure exceeding 3 trillion yuan, benefiting over 430 million people [1] Consumer Trends - There is a new trend in the replacement of old household appliances, with larger appliances becoming increasingly favored by consumers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the effective implementation of "Two Heavy" projects and the expansion of "Two New" policies, which are crucial for enhancing economic development and stability [1][2][3] - "Two Heavy" projects focus on strategic areas such as technological self-reliance, urban-rural integration, and ecological security, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and agricultural development [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the project list for "Two Heavy" construction by the end of June, ensuring high standards in implementation and efficiency [3] Group 2 - "Two New" initiatives involve large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer product replacements, which have become vital for boosting consumption and investment [4][5] - Retail sales in key categories such as home appliances and furniture have shown substantial growth, contributing to an increase in overall social retail sales [4] - Investment in equipment and tools has risen significantly, with a notable contribution from sectors closely related to "Two New" policies, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing and technological upgrades [4][5] Group 3 - The economic outlook remains stable, with domestic demand expanding and external markets diversifying, as evidenced by a 4.7% year-on-year increase in social retail sales [6][7] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors are experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in production output for servers and industrial robots [6] - The NDRC plans to accelerate fund allocation and improve the efficiency of fund usage to support the ongoing implementation of "Two New" policies [5][6]