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A股:周五大盘怎么走?是大涨还是大跌?我做了一个大胆的预判
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 17:25
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant adjustment after reaching a high point, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3986.90, down 0.73%, indicating a potential turning point for future market direction [1][8]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index peaked at 4025 points, with 3963 points identified as the first support level. A breach of this support could lead to a further decline towards 3936 points, which aligns with the 5-day moving average [2]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The trading volume in the Shanghai market approached 580 billion, a 10% increase from previous days, while net outflows of over 60 billion were observed, particularly in the communication equipment and semiconductor sectors. This indicates a significant selling pressure despite high trading activity [4]. Sector Performance - The market displayed a stark contrast, with quantum technology and battery sectors rising, while technology, computing, brokerage, and media sectors faced declines. Defensive sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals showed resilience, suggesting a shift from aggressive to defensive market sentiment [5]. External Environment - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve did not positively impact the U.S. stock market, which experienced a late-session drop. This negative sentiment is likely to affect the A-share market, especially if the U.S. market continues to decline [6]. Market Structure - The margin trading balance remains high, indicating that leveraged funds have not significantly exited the market. However, if the index continues to weaken, there may be passive selling pressure. Additionally, the end of the month may lead to increased volatility due to institutional rebalancing [7].