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美一票否决安理会加沙决议草案 对中东局势有何影响?
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-09-19 10:26
Group 1 - The U.S. veto of the UN Security Council resolution on Gaza indicates strong diplomatic support for Israel, likely leading to an escalation of military actions in Gaza City [1] - The veto may result in increased regional instability, as Israel's military actions could provoke further conflicts in the Middle East [2] - The U.S. veto contributes to a growing divide in the international community regarding the Israeli-Palestinian issue, with a split emerging between nations supporting Palestinian statehood and those aligned with Israel [3] Group 2 - The veto reflects a broader trend of U.S. unilateral actions that undermine the two-state solution and Palestinian aspirations for statehood [3] - The current geopolitical climate, characterized by a new Cold War and fragmentation, exacerbates the challenges of global governance and international cooperation [3]
策略周专题(2025年6月第2期):中东局势动荡对资产价格有何影响?
EBSCN· 2025-06-15 05:43
Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week due to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by deteriorating geopolitical conditions overseas. Most major indices fell, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 0.2%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index had the largest decline of 1.9%. Currently, the valuation of the Wind All A Index is at a historical medium level since 2010 [1][13][15] - In terms of industry performance, there was a divergence in the performance of the Shenwan first-level industries this week. Non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and agriculture-related sectors performed relatively well, while food and beverage, home appliances, and building materials sectors saw significant declines [1][15][24] Group 2 - Recent turmoil in the Middle East, particularly Israel's strikes against Iran, is not expected to have a significant impact on the A-share and Hong Kong markets. Historically, the impact of Middle Eastern tensions on these markets has been minimal. The low share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade also contributes to the limited effect on the domestic economy [2][3][21] - The short-term impact of the Middle East situation on industry performance is expected to be minimal. In the long term, the effect will depend on the duration of the conflict. A shorter conflict may benefit growth sectors, while a longer one could favor resource, transportation, and dividend sectors [2][3][39] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to maintain a consolidation state, with three main lines of focus: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds. The expansion of domestic demand is a key focus of recent domestic policies, which may lead to continued policy catalysts [4][18] - The historical data indicates that the average performance of major assets following conflicts in the Middle East shows that the A-share and Hong Kong markets do not experience significant declines. The average performance of the Wind All A Index and the Hang Seng Index remains stable, with a tendency for narrow fluctuations [24][25][29]