Group 1: Global Asset Performance - The global major asset performance from August 18 to August 22, 2025, showed a mixed trend, with US stocks experiencing volatility while other markets performed better[38] - The US stock market exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices narrowed their declines amid tech stock volatility[38] Group 2: Commodity Markets - The gold market remains under pressure due to fluctuating investor sentiment and geopolitical risks, impacting demand and pricing[2] - The oil market is influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and global economic recovery signals, with inventory levels affecting price stability[2] Group 3: Bond Market - US Treasury yields are expected to slightly decline in the coming quarters, with current levels facing limited adjustment due to mixed economic signals[18] - The Chinese bond market saw an upward adjustment in yields across various maturities, driven by reduced liquidity expectations and a shift in market sentiment[19] Group 4: Currency Market - The US Dollar Index showed a downward trend, decreasing from 98.15 to 97.72, reflecting a 0.12% decline due to weak retail sales data and market expectations of interest rate cuts[23] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable in the medium to long term, influenced by the Fed's potential rate cuts and China's economic recovery signals[37]

中信建投固收海外 中债徘徊，美债下探？ 美债收益率快速下行背后的直接催化剂是经济数据走弱，包括 12 月份 CPI 持 续高企、新增非农就业人数低于预期、零售额环比大幅萎缩以及消费者信心指 数创一年多新低等。此外，美联储 GDP Now 模型在出口和 PCE 数据公布后， 大幅下调了一季度 GDP 增速预期。这些因素共同导致市场对美国经济衰退或滞 胀的担忧加剧。然而，更深层次的原因是通胀趋势受到打压，再通胀叙事不稳 固，市场重新审视未来通胀压力。 摘要 • 美债收益率受经济数据走弱影响快速下行，市场对美国经济衰退或滞胀的 预期增强，但深层原因是再通胀叙事不稳固，市场重新审视未来通胀压力， 需关注后续通胀数据。 • 二月份核心 CPI 数据超预期，市场对年内降息预期升温，但当前更像是经 济走弱而非滞胀，美债牛市需经济下行和通胀预期下降，降息预期受通胀 数据直接影响。 • 短期内再通胀逻辑松动有技术性原因，如一月份数据存在季节性因素，以 及美联储更关注的 PCE 数据与 CPI 存在权重差异，导致 PCE 数据表现符 合预期。 • 美债收益率短期波动受交易性因素放大，中枢判断应考虑 50-100 个基点 的波动区 ...