研究所 底部区间，持续震荡 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年07月20日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——内外盘主力价格合约走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 镍期货收盘价(主力 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天震荡上行，30 年期品种表现较强，截至 收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.40%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.14%，5 | | | | | 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 985 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 3653 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日实现净回笼 2668 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金 ...

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including their entry into the basic medical insurance drug list and the establishment of a commercial health insurance innovative drug list [1] Group 2 - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June recorded 50.4, an increase of 2.1 points from May, returning above the critical point [2] Group 3 - According to the National Film Administration, the box office for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 29.231 billion yuan, with 641 million viewers, representing year-on-year growth of 22.91% and 16.89% respectively, and domestic films accounting for 91.2% of the box office [3] Group 4 - The domestic fuel surcharge for air routes will increase by 10 yuan starting July 5 [4] Group 5 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.32%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.58% [5]

Group 1 - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from April, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024 [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced a scheduled adjustment of sample stocks for indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index on June 16, 2025 [2] - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce's Automotive Dealers Chamber issued a proposal to firmly resist "involution" competition primarily characterized by "price wars" [3] Group 2 - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the National Immigration Administration reported that border inspection agencies facilitated a total of 5.907 million entries and exits for domestic and foreign personnel, averaging 1.969 million per day, which is a 2.7% increase compared to the same period last year [4] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.73%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.13%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.59% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April dropped to 50.4, marking the lowest level in three months and indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [1] Group 1 - The April PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared to March [1] - The current PMI reading of 50.4 suggests that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a deceleration in growth [1]