1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The I2601 contract of iron ore may continue to fluctuate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control. The macro - level shows an increased expectation of loose monetary policies in China and the US. On the industrial side, iron ore shipments, arrivals, and port inventories have increased, the spot market remains generally firm, traders have a fair enthusiasm for selling, and steel mills mostly purchase as needed. The resumption of work and production in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei supports the iron ore price to run strongly [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: As of September 5, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 789.5 (+2) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 837 (+9) yuan/dry ton [5]. - **Shipment**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241 million tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141.7 million tons [5]. - **Arrival**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2645.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 182.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2526.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1300.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.8 million tons [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot - metal output was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14425.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1653.23 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8939.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67.32 million tons [5]. - **Profitability**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 56.71 percentage points [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias and was stronger than the I2605 contract. On the 5th, the price difference was 24.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Position**: On September 5, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1900, with no week - on - week change. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 25009, an increase of 3138 compared to the previous week [20]. - **Spot Price**: On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 5th, the basis was 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241 million tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141.7 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2645.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 182.7 million tons [31]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14425.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.70 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 330.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 6017.02 million tons, a decrease of 113.29 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 5492.96 million tons, an increase of 66.20 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 9169.96 million tons, a decrease of 58.06 million tons [34]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8939.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67.32 million tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 280.67 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.43 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.85 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.43 days [34]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of September 4, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day. On September 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1963, a week - on - week decrease of 62 [39]. - **Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 132.5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 69656.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sample mines was 60.55%, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the daily average output of concentrate powder was 38.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 million tons; the inventory was 34.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 million tons [42]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output**: In July 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 8632.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 59591.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In July, the output of iron concentrate powder of 433 iron mines was 2311.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 16087.2 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1070.4 million tons, a decrease of 6.2% [46]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative national crude steel output was 59447 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [49]. - **Steel Import and Export**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, an increase of 15.8 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel export volume was 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China imported 45.2 million tons of steel, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel import volume was 347.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [49]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot - Metal Output**: On September 5, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.77 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With the steel market entering the peak season, there is a possibility of a rebound in hot - metal output in the later stage, which may increase the spot demand for iron ore. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [55].

从企业类型看： 大型企业延续稳定扩张态势。8月份大型企业采购经理指数为50.8%，较上月上升0.5个百分点，大型企 业供需两端较快扩张，较好稳住制造业基本盘。 8月制造业生产经营活动预期指数为53.7%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，显示当前市场预期全面上升，市 场信心较好。 （总台央视记者 王善涛） 责任编辑：韦子蓉 中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心今天（31日）公布8月份中国采购经理指数。其 中，制造业采购经理指数环比小幅回升，向好基础继续巩固。 8月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.4%，较上月上升0.1个百分点。制造业市场需求有所改善，环比小 幅回升。在需求趋稳以及极端天气影响减弱等因素的带动下，企业生产意愿有所释放，生产活动稳定扩 张。8月份，生产指数为50.8%，较上月上升0.3个百分点。 从价格指数来看： 价格指数联动上升，整治"内卷式"竞争效果初显。原材料购进价格指数连续3个月明显上升，且连续2个 月运行在扩张区间，显示原材料价格加快上升。同时，出厂价格指数也连续3个月环比上升，并创下今 年以来的最高点。 另外，新动能加快扩张，支撑引领作用持续增强。8月份， 装备制造业采购经理指数为5 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Nonferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 20, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The market expects the Fed to adjust its monetary policy in the fall, with the US Treasury Secretary suggesting a September rate cut China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing has also increased steadily after the implementation of consumption - promotion policies Although the PPI decline widened in June, prices in some industries are stabilizing and rebounding [36] - Shanghai nickel showed a volatile trend this week. Refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated. Nickel sulfate prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak volatile state, with slow inventory reduction. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract of stainless steel will operate in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The report may have presented the trends of domestic and foreign main price contracts of nickel futures, but specific text descriptions are not provided, only a price chart from 2020/12/31 to 2025/06/30 is shown [7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: A chart of China's nickel ore port inventory and the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines is presented, but no specific text analysis is given [12][13] - **Mid - stream**: Charts of electrolytic nickel prices, nickel sulfate prices, monthly import volume of ferronickel, and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, but no specific text analysis is given [15][16][17][18][19][20] - **Downstream**: Charts of stainless steel prices, stainless steel futures positions, Wuxi stainless steel inventory, power and energy storage battery production, and new energy vehicle production are presented, but no specific text analysis is given [21][22][23][24][25][26][28][29][30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions in July and September are given, with a high probability of maintaining the rate in July and a high probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut in September China's manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs are rising, while the PPI decline widened in June but some industries' prices are stabilizing [36] - Shanghai nickel is in a volatile trend. Refined nickel has a supply surplus, nickel ore supply is loose, nickel sulfate prices are weak, and stainless steel is in a weak volatile state. The expected operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and stainless steel main contracts are provided [36]

今天(31日)，中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心公布5月份中国采购经理指数。其 中，制造业采购经理指数较上月有所回升，制造业景气水平有所改善，经济运行有所回稳。5月份中国 制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，较上月上升0.5个百分点。从分项指数看，生产指数为50.7%，较上月上 升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有所加快。需求方面，5月份新订单指数为49.8%， 较上月上升0.6个百分点。从行业来看，农副食品加工、专用设备、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业的生 产指数和新订单指数都是高于54%，相关行业供需两端较快增长。从进出口指数来看，5月份新出口订 单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，较上月分别上升2.8和3.7个百分点，进出口情况有所改善。从 市场预期看，生产经营活动预期指数为52.5%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信 心总体保持乐观。(央视新闻) ...

5月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.5% 较上月上升0.5个百分点 智通财经5月31日电，今天（31日），中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心公布5月份中国采购经理指数。其中，制造业采购经理指数较上月 有所回升，制造业景气水平有所改善，经济运行有所回稳。5月份中国制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，较上月上升0.5个百分点。从分项指数看，生产指数为 50.7%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有所加快。需求方面，5月份新订单指数为49.8%，较上月上升0.6个百分点。 ...