9 月非农数据点评 迟来的指引，摇摆的降息 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国劳工部（BLS）补发 9 月非农就业报告。9 月新增非农就业人数 11.9 万，远高 于预期的 5.0 万，失业率小幅上行至 4.4%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 评论： 图1：9 月非农数据总览 | | | | | 2025年9月 非农数据总览表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】9 月美国非农数据点评 就业数据真空或促使联储 12 月不降息 主要观点 9 月美国非农数据简述 1、新增非农回升且好于预期。新增非农 11.9 万，预期 5 万。7 月数据从 7.9 万 下修至 7.2 万，8 月数据从 2.2 万下修至-0.4 万。就业增长主要集中在 2 个行 业，教育保健服务（+5.9 万，前值+4.7 万）、休闲和酒店业（+4.7 万，前值+3.2 万）合计占总新增就业的约 9 成；其次是政府（+2.2 万，前值-2.2 万）、建筑 （+1.9 万，前值-1.4 万）、批发和零售。制造业、专业和商业服务的就业萎缩。 2、失业率超预期上行。失业率录得 4.4%（4.44%），高于预期和前值的 4.3% （4.324%）。失业率超预期上行主要源于劳动力供给回升：劳动参与率回升 0.1 个百分点至 62.4%，高于预期的 62.3%，家庭调查口径的新增就业增长 25.1 万， 劳动力供给增长 47.2 万。 3、时薪增速小幅低于预期。时薪环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%，6 个月 变化的折年率从 3.8%降至 3.6%。同比增速 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月21日 [Table_NewTitle] 9月非农数据的表与里 ——海外观察：美国2025年9月非农数据 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_main] ➢ 事件：当地时间11月20日，美国劳工局公布2025年9月美国非农就业数据。美国9月季调后 非农就业人口新增11.9万人，预期5.0万人，前值由2.2万人下修至-0.4万人。9月失业率从 前值4.3%上升至4.4%，预期4.3%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国9月非农就业新增11.9万人"表面上"大超预期，但拆分来看并不强劲。首 先是就业贡献依然大量依赖于教育健康和休闲酒店，而两者均是高兼职率行业，受兼职扰 动影响较强；其次CPS项下身兼数职人数当月新增1.7万人，或对CES就业新增有高估影 响；最后，9月新增超预期上升或受8 ...

中新社华盛顿11月20日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部20日发布数据称，美国9月非农部门新增就业11.9万 人，失业率为4.4%。这份就业数据报告因政府停摆被推迟了近七周才发布。 美劳工部同时修正此前两月的就业数据：7月的非农新增就业人数由7.9万下调至7.2万；8月由新增2.2万 调整为减少4000人。7月和8月累计减少3.3万人。 美国劳工部20日还在声明中表示，由于联邦政府停摆造成的拨款中断，相关数据未被采集，也不会事后 补采，因此将不会发布10月份的非农就业数据，10月的部分数据将与11月就业报告一并在12月16日发 布。 美联储今年的最后一次货币政策会议将于12月9日至10日举行。这也意味着美联储的决策仍无法获得及 时的重要经济数据参考。 《华盛顿邮报》指出，尽管从许多指标来看，美国经济似乎依然稳健，但出现的压力迹象正在增多。招 聘速度放缓、消费者开始收缩支出、债务负担加重，而与此同时通胀又再度上升。现在经济学家担心， 由于秋季数据断档，未来几个月将更难识别潜在的经济风险。(完) 数据显示，美国9月份在医疗保健、餐饮业、社会援助行业的就业继续上升。运输与仓储业以及联邦政 府的就业下降。其中，9月医疗 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251118 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外降息预期再收敛，国内风险偏好趋弱 海外方面，美联储内部分歧依旧，副主席杰斐逊称利率已逼近中性、后续降息需谨慎， 下任联储主席候选人沃勒则指出就业几乎停滞、工资压力缓和，支持 12 月再降息 25bp，整 体基调从通胀压制转向关注就业走弱，目前市场定价 12 月降息的概率降至 43%。美元指数 回升至 99.5，美股冲高回落，10Y 美债利率震荡回落至 4.13%，金价、铜价、油价均有所调 整，本周重点关注美国非农就业数据及美股科技板块财报。 国内方面，A 股震荡调整，两市成交额回落至 1.93 万亿，中证 2000、北证 50、微盘股 相对占优，锂矿、林木、互联网等板块领涨。两融余额 11 月以来基本横盘，较三季度的扩 张势头明显放缓，显示加杠杆意愿趋弱。在指数于 4000 点附近反复、基本面数据边际走弱、 内外宽松均处观望的背景下，虽不排除年内再创新高的可能，但更需防范阶段性回调风险， 操作上不宜追高。债市方面，资金面偏紧令短端利率下行空间 ...

【摩根士丹利：美9月非农数据或停摆结束后三日左右发布】11月11日，摩根士丹利分析师称，美国9月 非农就业数据可能在政府停摆结束后约三个工作日发布。其他多数关键月度指标公布或还需一到两周。 因资料收集工作受干扰，10月数据公布时间更长，或无法在12月联邦公开市场委员会会议前发布。不 过，该公司学家认为，美联储将掌握足够数据证明再次降息合理。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of U.S. non-farm payroll data as a key indicator for the health of the job market and its direct impact on the gold market [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Farm Data as a Market Indicator - Non-farm payroll data includes three critical indicators: new non-farm jobs added, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage growth [2]. - Strong data typically leads to increased interest rate hike expectations, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold prices, while weak data tends to elevate risk aversion, providing an opportunity for gold to rise [2]. - In 2024, the average volatility of gold on non-farm announcement days reached $28, indicating significant trading opportunities that require professional strategies [2]. Group 2: Core Advantages of the Company - The company offers an efficient trading app that allows investors to capitalize on fleeting non-farm market opportunities with features like one-click trading [3]. - It provides specialized non-farm reports and live analysis to guide investors through the trading process, helping them learn from past experiences and adapt their strategies [4]. - The company implements strict risk control mechanisms, ensuring the separation of client funds from operational funds and providing built-in risk management tools within its trading systems [5]. Group 3: Trading Strategies for Investors - New investors can start with a low entry point of 70 yuan and use a demo account to familiarize themselves with the trading process, employing preset stop-loss and take-profit features to avoid impulsive trades [6]. - Experienced traders can utilize various technical indicators to analyze historical volatility patterns and develop multi-dimensional strategies, with live sessions providing real-time data analysis to support informed decision-making [6]. - The company positions itself as a comprehensive solution provider for gold investors, offering services from data interpretation to trade execution, thereby helping users navigate market volatility effectively [6].

阅读此文之前，请您点击一下"关注"，既方便您讨论和分享，又能给您带来不一样的参与感，感谢您的 支持 本文陈述所有内容，皆有可靠来源赘述在文章结尾 美国8月非农报告，引爆市场惊天谜团！ 新增就业远低于预期，但更惊人的是，全职岗位雪崩式消失，兼职却潮水般涌来，劳动力市场呈现出一 种畸形失衡的状态。 美国 8 月非农数据整体概况 是政策的调控，还是行业结构的转型，亦或是其他更深层次的缘由？这一切都值得我们细细去剖析，去 探寻隐藏在数据背后的真相。 劳动力市场的具体表现 就拿工作岗位来说，全职工作岗位数量锐减了 35.7 万个，这一数字仿佛是一个警示信号，暗示着就业 市场的稳定性正面临挑战。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，兼职工作岗位却飙升了 59.7 万个，如此大的反差，不禁让人好奇，是什么促 使人们更多地选择兼职工作，是出于灵活就业的考量，还是全职岗位的稀缺导致的无奈之举呢？ 8 月的美国非农数据，让整个经济领域都为之震动。原本市场预期新增非农会达到 7.5 万之多，可实际 情况却只有 2.2 万，这巨大的落差偏离了 - 2.68x 标准差，着实令人咋舌。 不仅如此，前值的变动也颇为复杂，从 7.3 万修正为 7.9 万 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its relationship with **U.S. economic indicators**, particularly focusing on interest rate expectations and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Drivers**: The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts due to weaker economic data, particularly non-farm payrolls, and manageable inflation risks [2][3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market has largely priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3% by the end of 2025 [3][27]. 3. **Employment Market Analysis**: The decline in non-farm payrolls does not necessarily indicate an impending recession; it reflects a complex interplay of factors including economic slowdown, declining labor participation, and increased AI investments [5][10][11]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: Oil prices are identified as the primary driver of U.S. inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline due to base effects and falling prices in key categories like used cars and rent [15][17][23]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions have historically influenced gold prices, but their impact is currently diminishing as the market stabilizes [37]. 6. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies [31][35]. 7. **ETF Influence**: The relationship between gold prices and ETF holdings is significant; as U.S. Treasury yields decline, ETF purchases of gold are likely to increase, further supporting gold prices [32][42]. 8. **Speculative Indicators**: Speculative long positions in gold can provide some insights into price movements, but their reliability is limited, especially at market peaks [34][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Labor Market Trends**: The U.S. labor market is characterized by a "three lows" balance (low hiring, low employment, low unemployment), which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [11][12]. 2. **Future Economic Outlook**: The potential for a global monetary easing environment could benefit both stocks and gold, although stocks may outperform in such scenarios [41]. 3. **Risks to Gold Market**: Potential risks include short-term volatility around the September FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments that could alter central bank purchasing behavior [40][43]. 4. **Long-term Economic Indicators**: The inversion of the nominal GDP and federal funds rate suggests a need for rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures, historically indicating a recession [28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, interest rate policies, and gold market dynamics, providing a nuanced understanding of current trends and future expectations.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected job growth in August and downward revisions in previous months' data, leading to increased bets on rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting this month [1][2][3] Group 2 - In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs [2] - The previous two months' job growth figures were revised downwards, with June's job additions being adjusted from 14,000 down to -13,000, and July's from 73,000 up to 79,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [3] - Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index fell approximately 40 points, while spot gold prices rose nearly $25, reaching a record high of $3,580 per ounce [3]