每月第一个周五，全球投资者的目光都聚焦于美国非农就业数据。这一经济"体检报告"不仅反映美国就 业市场健康状况，更直接牵动黄金市场神经。作为黄金交易平台，领峰环球(acetoptg.top/JfSTFg)持有巴 哈马证券监察委员会SCB牌照，并凭借其专业服务与技术实力，力助投资者在非农夜找到更多机遇。 一、非农数据：黄金市场的"风向标" 非农数据包含三大关键指标：新增非农就业人数、失业率及平均时薪增长率。数据表现直接影响美联储 货币政策走向： 数据强劲：加息预期升温，美元走强，黄金通常承压； 数据疲软：避险情绪攀升，黄金作为避险资产迎来上涨契机。 2024年以来，非农公布当日黄金平均波动高达28美元，波动中蕴藏巨大机会，但也需专业策略应对。 二、领峰环球的三大核心优势 1、APP高效交易，抢占先机 非农行情窗口转瞬即逝，领峰环球提供MT5交易系统以及官网自研APP，支持24小时不间断交易。"一 键交易"功能，快如闪电，帮助投资者在数据公布前后快速建仓平仓，避免错失关键点位。 2、非农专题报告，全程护航 领峰环球提供非农专题系列精选内容，全程护航投资者炒黄金。领峰环球直播间实时解读数据，提供参 考策略，在非农日从 ...

阅读此文之前，请您点击一下"关注"，既方便您讨论和分享，又能给您带来不一样的参与感，感谢您的 支持 本文陈述所有内容，皆有可靠来源赘述在文章结尾 美国8月非农报告，引爆市场惊天谜团！ 新增就业远低于预期，但更惊人的是，全职岗位雪崩式消失，兼职却潮水般涌来，劳动力市场呈现出一 种畸形失衡的状态。 美国 8 月非农数据整体概况 是政策的调控，还是行业结构的转型，亦或是其他更深层次的缘由？这一切都值得我们细细去剖析，去 探寻隐藏在数据背后的真相。 劳动力市场的具体表现 就拿工作岗位来说，全职工作岗位数量锐减了 35.7 万个，这一数字仿佛是一个警示信号，暗示着就业 市场的稳定性正面临挑战。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，兼职工作岗位却飙升了 59.7 万个，如此大的反差，不禁让人好奇，是什么促 使人们更多地选择兼职工作，是出于灵活就业的考量，还是全职岗位的稀缺导致的无奈之举呢？ 8 月的美国非农数据，让整个经济领域都为之震动。原本市场预期新增非农会达到 7.5 万之多，可实际 情况却只有 2.2 万，这巨大的落差偏离了 - 2.68x 标准差，着实令人咋舌。 不仅如此，前值的变动也颇为复杂，从 7.3 万修正为 7.9 万 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its relationship with **U.S. economic indicators**, particularly focusing on interest rate expectations and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Drivers**: The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts due to weaker economic data, particularly non-farm payrolls, and manageable inflation risks [2][3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market has largely priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3% by the end of 2025 [3][27]. 3. **Employment Market Analysis**: The decline in non-farm payrolls does not necessarily indicate an impending recession; it reflects a complex interplay of factors including economic slowdown, declining labor participation, and increased AI investments [5][10][11]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: Oil prices are identified as the primary driver of U.S. inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline due to base effects and falling prices in key categories like used cars and rent [15][17][23]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions have historically influenced gold prices, but their impact is currently diminishing as the market stabilizes [37]. 6. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies [31][35]. 7. **ETF Influence**: The relationship between gold prices and ETF holdings is significant; as U.S. Treasury yields decline, ETF purchases of gold are likely to increase, further supporting gold prices [32][42]. 8. **Speculative Indicators**: Speculative long positions in gold can provide some insights into price movements, but their reliability is limited, especially at market peaks [34][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Labor Market Trends**: The U.S. labor market is characterized by a "three lows" balance (low hiring, low employment, low unemployment), which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [11][12]. 2. **Future Economic Outlook**: The potential for a global monetary easing environment could benefit both stocks and gold, although stocks may outperform in such scenarios [41]. 3. **Risks to Gold Market**: Potential risks include short-term volatility around the September FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments that could alter central bank purchasing behavior [40][43]. 4. **Long-term Economic Indicators**: The inversion of the nominal GDP and federal funds rate suggests a need for rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures, historically indicating a recession [28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, interest rate policies, and gold market dynamics, providing a nuanced understanding of current trends and future expectations.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected job growth in August and downward revisions in previous months' data, leading to increased bets on rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting this month [1][2][3] Group 2 - In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs [2] - The previous two months' job growth figures were revised downwards, with June's job additions being adjusted from 14,000 down to -13,000, and July's from 73,000 up to 79,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [3] - Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index fell approximately 40 points, while spot gold prices rose nearly $25, reaching a record high of $3,580 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - Investors are awaiting the critical U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, with gold prices consolidating around $3,550 [1] - Economists expect the U.S. to add 75,000 jobs in August, nearly unchanged from July's 73,000 [2] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [2] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings are expected to grow at a moderate pace of 3.7%, down from 3.9% in July, with a steady monthly increase of 0.3% [3] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.25% to around 98.00 before the non-farm payroll data release, making gold more attractive to investors [3] - Gold prices paused after reaching a historical high of around $3,580, following a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart [3] Group 3 - The recent trend for gold prices is bullish, with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) rising near $3,436.70 [4] - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) surged to around 75.00, indicating potential overbought conditions for gold prices [5] - The 20-day moving average will serve as a key support level, while the $3,600 level will act as a significant resistance point for gold [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The I2601 contract of iron ore may continue to fluctuate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control. The macro - level shows an increased expectation of loose monetary policies in China and the US. On the industrial side, iron ore shipments, arrivals, and port inventories have increased, the spot market remains generally firm, traders have a fair enthusiasm for selling, and steel mills mostly purchase as needed. The resumption of work and production in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei supports the iron ore price to run strongly [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: As of September 5, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 789.5 (+2) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 837 (+9) yuan/dry ton [5]. - **Shipment**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241 million tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141.7 million tons [5]. - **Arrival**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2645.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 182.7 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2526.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1300.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.8 million tons [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot - metal output was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14425.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1653.23 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8939.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67.32 million tons [5]. - **Profitability**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 61.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 56.71 percentage points [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias and was stronger than the I2605 contract. On the 5th, the price difference was 24.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Net Position**: On September 5, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1900, with no week - on - week change. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 25009, an increase of 3138 compared to the previous week [20]. - **Spot Price**: On September 5, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 5th, the basis was 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3556.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 241 million tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2902.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141.7 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2645.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 182.7 million tons [31]. - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14425.72 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.70 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 330.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 6017.02 million tons, a decrease of 113.29 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 5492.96 million tons, an increase of 66.20 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 9169.96 million tons, a decrease of 58.06 million tons [34]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8939.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67.32 million tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 280.67 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.43 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.85 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.43 days [34]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of September 4, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore at large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day. On September 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1963, a week - on - week decrease of 62 [39]. - **Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 132.5 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 69656.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sample mines was 60.55%, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the daily average output of concentrate powder was 38.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33 million tons; the inventory was 34.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 million tons [42]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output**: In July 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 8632.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 59591.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In July, the output of iron concentrate powder of 433 iron mines was 2311.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 16087.2 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1070.4 million tons, a decrease of 6.2% [46]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative national crude steel output was 59447 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [49]. - **Steel Import and Export**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, an increase of 15.8 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel export volume was 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China imported 45.2 million tons of steel, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel import volume was 347.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% [49]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot - Metal Output**: On September 5, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.77 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With the steel market entering the peak season, there is a possibility of a rebound in hot - metal output in the later stage, which may increase the spot demand for iron ore. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options [55].

央广网北京9月4日消息（记者任芳言）据中央广播电视总台经济之声《交易实况》报道，国际金价近期 持续上涨，9月3日纽约黄金期货价格突破每盎司3600美元，创下新高，现货黄金价格首次站上3550美 元/盎司，日内最高报3565.7美元/盎司，也创出历史新高。 多位受访专家认为，投资者避险情绪升温、各国央行增持、美联储降息预期等多重因素共同推动本轮金 价行情。山东齐盛期货高级黄金投资分析师刘旭峰表示，美联储未来降息的进程大概率还将持续，有可 能还会加快。 王骏说："当前形势下，建议大多数投资者以实物黄金、黄金ETF为核心的基础配置，再加一部分资金 用于黄金股以及黄金期货期权衍生品的配置来增强收益。" 刘旭峰提醒，场内期货和现货是杠杆交易，对普通投资者来说风险相对较大，而股票价格和黄金价格在 走势上也存在一定差异。 刘旭峰说："由于上市公司的经营业绩不仅受到金价的影响，还受到企业套期保值以及其他业务的影 响，股票价格的分析会更复杂一些。ETF的价格和金价基本一致，比较适合普通投资者长期持有。" 谈到未来黄金价格走势，市场人士赵相宾建议，短期要关注本周五美国公布的非农就业数据。如果非农 数据弱于预期，投资者将加大对美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper market showed stability around the 80,000 yuan mark but experienced a decline of 0.51% at the close, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and rising precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shanghai copper prices initially rose above 80,000 yuan due to strong macroeconomic sentiment and the performance of precious metals, but later retreated as domestic inventories increased and futures market sentiment weakened [1] - The market's focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence macroeconomic sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - LME copper inventory has remained relatively stable without significant accumulation, while SMM data indicated a 0.85 million ton increase in national copper inventory as of September 4 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures suggests that the macroeconomic factors driving metal prices remain positive, and under the current conditions, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels, with potential for further strength [1] - A potential downside risk is the return of logistics, although the CL price spread remains positive, indicating a slower realization of returns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surpassed $3,500, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, leading to a bullish trend in the gold market [1] - The article emphasizes that the recent price movements in gold are not indicative of a bearish trend, but rather a temporary pause in a long-term bull market [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is not expected to significantly impact gold prices, as employment data is just one of the indicators for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the historical highs in London and New York gold prices do not reflect the returns for domestic gold holders, primarily due to currency fluctuations affecting profit margins [1] - It notes that the recent dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief due to data falsification indicates underlying issues with employment figures, suggesting a weak job market [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has a 10.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in September and an 89.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 47.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 47.9% [1] - Venezuelan President Maduro claims the country faces the greatest threat in a century, citing U.S. military presence as a direct threat [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3557.1 per ounce and silver at $41.64 per ounce [2] - International gold has also hit a new high of $3508.69 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of approximately $875, representing a 33% rise [4] - The market sentiment has shifted positively towards gold due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by comments from Chairman Powell [5] Group 3 - Gold has surpassed historical highs, reaching $3508, and is expected to face some adjustments but remains in a bullish trend [7] - Recent trading patterns show a tendency for gold to dip during Asian trading hours but recover strongly during U.S. trading hours [9] - International silver has reached a 14-year high, with potential for further increases, although caution is advised against chasing prices [9]