【弘则FICC 宏观】美国1月非农就业数据点评——医疗、社保托底，美国就业"表强里弱" 1、美国1月非农就业人口增加13万人，大幅超出市场预期的7万人。 失业率略微降低0.1%至4.3%，工时、工资以及劳动参与率均有上升；反映失业率下行主要由需求拉动，1月劳动力 市场出现改善迹象。 2、25年11月和12月的就业人数合计下修1.7万人，而25年QCEW基准大幅下调86.2万 【弘则FICC 宏观】美国1月非农就业数据点评——医疗、社保托底，美国就业"表强里弱" 1、美国1月非农就业人口增加13万人，大幅超出市场预期的7万人。 失业率略微降低0.1%至4.3%，工时、工资以及劳动参与率均有上升；反映失业率下行主要由需求拉动，1月劳动力 市场出现改善迹象。 2、25年11月和12月的就业人数合计下修1.7万人，而25年QCEW基准大幅下调86.2万人后，25年美国月均非农新增 就业人数从4.9万人下调至1.5万人。 在非农数据连续两年被大幅下修后，数据可靠性的问题进一步放大。 并且本期新增就业主要来自医疗和社保行业（约12万人），政府部门就业依然是负增长；反映就业市场结构性分 化，复苏的广度不足。 3、数据公布后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected performance in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, impacting market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1]. Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, significantly exceeding market expectations [1]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March [1]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts have shifted from June to July following the strong employment data [1]. - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach to further rate cuts, with a preference for patience in assessing economic conditions [1]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed a preference for maintaining current rates while evaluating the impact of recent rate cuts [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Esther George emphasized the need to keep rates in a "slightly restrictive" range due to inflation remaining above target levels [1]. - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that despite the strong employment report, the job market remains fragile and susceptible to shocks [2].

Employment Data - In January, non-farm employment increased significantly by 130,000, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since January 2025[7] - Private sector employment added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000[7] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the employment increase, adding 137,000 jobs[8] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, driven by improved job demand[9] - The labor participation rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, primarily due to increases in the 20-54 age group[13] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[19] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 3.7%, remaining stable within the 3.7%-3.9% range since the second half of 2025[19] Market Expectations - Following the strong employment data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March dropped from 21.7% to 7.9%, and the probability of a cut before June decreased from 75% to 59.8%[2] - U.S. stock indices rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.2% before retreating[2]

斯托克600指数上涨0.3%，其中能源和矿业股表现最为突出。 责任编辑：李肇孚 欧洲股市触及盘中高点，此前数据显示美国1月招聘人数超出预期，失业率意外下降。 欧洲股市触及盘中高点，此前数据显示美国1月招聘人数超出预期，失业率意外下降。 斯托克600指数上涨0.3%，其中能源和矿业股表现最为突出。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李肇孚 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the U.S. January non-farm payroll report, which shows an increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing the forecast of 65,000 and the previous value of 50,000 [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate for January is reported at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, compared to the forecast of 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4% [2] - The December non-farm payroll figures were revised to an increase of 48,000, and November's figures were revised to an increase of 41,000 [3] Group 2 - The annual benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment of 862,000 jobs, compared to the forecast reduction of 825,000 [4] - Following the data release, traders reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with full pricing now indicating a cut in July rather than June [4] - U.S. stock index futures rose after the report, with the Nasdaq futures up 0.35%, S&P 500 futures up 0.31%, and Dow futures up 0.24% [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 4 basis points to 4.192% [4] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) initially surged by 50 points to 97.14 before quickly retreating [4] - Non-U.S. currencies experienced a decline, with the euro dropping over 60 points against the dollar, the pound falling over 70 points, and the yen seeing a near 100-point increase against the dollar [4] Group 4 - Spot gold prices fell nearly $40, with the current price at $5,054.46 per ounce, after reaching a high of $5,100 [5] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by over 2% amid geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in gold and silver prices, driven by market anticipation of the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold has reached $5,100 per ounce, marking the first time since January 30, with a daily increase of 1.54% [1] - The market is closely watching the non-farm payroll report, as a significantly weak data release could strengthen bets on an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver experienced a substantial increase of 6%, reaching $85.57 per ounce [1] - The rise in silver prices is also linked to the anticipation surrounding the non-farm payroll data and its potential impact on monetary policy [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is seen as a critical indicator that could either support or pressure gold prices depending on its performance relative to market expectations [1] - A strong report could reinforce expectations for prolonged interest rates, thereby boosting the dollar and applying downward pressure on gold prices [1]

若数据表现强劲，可能强化对美联储维持相对紧缩政策的预期，从而支撑美元；反之，若数据不及预 期，则可能巩固对政策转向的猜测，令美元承压。在数据公布前，这种不确定性令美元指数维持在一周 多以来的低位附近徘徊。 全球市场风险情绪的改善，也在一定程度上降低了美元的避险需求，这对新西兰元等与经济增长关联度 较高的货币构成利好。 这一因素部分抵消了中国近期通胀数据带来的影响。数据显示中国消费者价格涨幅有所放缓，生产者价 格则延续收缩态势，反映出内需仍有待加强，部分领域面临价格下行压力。 新西兰元兑美元汇率在近期交易中呈现反弹走势。周三亚洲时段，汇率升至近两周高位，现货价格交投 于0.6065附近。 当前美元走势偏弱，为新西兰元提供了支撑，但市场参与者的注意力普遍集中于即将公布的美国非农就 业数据，该数据可能为短期汇率方向提供关键指引。 美国月度就业数据受到广泛关注，因其直接影响市场对美联储货币政策路径的预期。目前市场对利率政 策的预期已有所调整，并部分反映在资产价格中。 从新西兰国内因素看，最新公布的劳动力市场数据显示失业率有所上升。这一变化可能使市场对新西兰 储备银行进一步加息的预期减弱，从而在一定程度上限制新西兰元的 ...

尽管加元基本面支撑增强，但上方空间同样面临压制。美元指数整体维持弱势震荡，美联储降息预期虽 有所升温，但官员表态出现明显分化。美联储副主席力挺当前利率水平，暗示暂不降息，而旧金山联储 主席则释放鸽派信号，这种"内讧"式的表态加剧了市场的不确定性。 2月11日，亚洲交易时段，美元兑加元汇率维持窄幅震荡，汇价稳定在1.3550附近，多空双方在这一关 键心理关口展开激烈博弈。尽管市场对美加两国贸易摩擦的担忧情绪一度升温，但并未对汇率水平造成 实质性撼动，投资者焦点已全面转向即将公布的美国非农就业数据，寻求打破当前僵局的明确信号。 近期，围绕底特律-温莎跨境大桥项目的美加贸易争端成为市场关注的焦点。加拿大总理公开表示将妥 善处理与特朗普政府的分歧，有效缓解了市场对两国贸易关系恶化的担忧。投资者普遍认为，此次争端 不会动摇《美墨加协定》(USMCA)的根基，避险情绪的快速消退使得加元得以在1.3550水平企稳。 当前，支撑加元走势的核心逻辑回归到"油价联动"与"货币政策分化"的基本面上。作为主要石油出口 国，加拿大经济与国际油价高度绑定。尽管周二原油价格小幅回调0.8%，但市场对大宗商品投资周期 的预期依然强劲，矿产开 ...

美联储于2025年末启动降息，劳动力市场显露疲态是推动该决策的关键因素之一。当前市场认为美联储 3月会议维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，但对4月会议维持利率不变的预期已降至57.3%，较一周前的70% 出现明显下滑，市场对美联储后续政策走向的犹豫情绪加剧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 2026年2月11日，市场聚焦当日即将公布的美国1月非农就业数据，欧元多头情绪逐步积累，美欧央行之 间的政策差异，成为支撑欧元的重要潜在推力。 美国1月非农就业报告原定于2月6日发布，因部分政府部门停摆推迟至今日。除常规月度新增就业人数 和失业率数据外，本次报告还将包含截至2025年3月的年度就业数据修订，初步估计显示就业人数可能 下修91.1万人。市场预期1月新增非农就业人数6.9万人，失业率维持在4.4%。 ...

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. labor market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] - A weaker-than-expected data release could reignite concerns about labor market momentum and strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing later this year, which would likely pressure the U.S. dollar [1] - Conversely, strong data performance could challenge these expectations, providing support for the dollar and pushing up yields [1]