Core Viewpoint - The significant downward revision of June non-farm payroll data indicates substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy caused by tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains certain [5][9]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 110,000, with the previous month's figure revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from 4.1% in the previous month [4]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.8% [4]. Group 2: Employment Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities sector added 15,000 jobs, education and healthcare added 79,000 jobs, and retail added 16,000 jobs, all showing improvement compared to previous values [6]. - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating a lack of production willingness among companies [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, indicating a significant decline in employment willingness among the younger demographic [8]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2% [8]. - There was an increase in temporary unemployment by 80,000 and a rise in those completing temporary jobs by 31,000, suggesting an uptick in layoffs [8]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Cumulative downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June, along with the July job addition of 73,000, indicate a clear weakening trend in non-farm employment [9]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability of the first cut occurring in September [9].

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 104,000, with the previous month's value revised down to 14,000[6] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor participation rate fell for the third consecutive month to 62.2%[6][9] - The average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, indicating rising core service inflation pressures[9][10] Economic Outlook - The softening job market provides ample justification for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 37.7% to 78.7%[9][30] - The recent acceleration in U.S. trade negotiations and the reduction of tariff uncertainties contribute to a clearer inflation outlook, suggesting that if inflation does not exceed expectations, a rate cut in September is highly likely[9][10] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to implement rate cuts, especially with upcoming tariff adjustments that may impact prices[7][33]

美东时间8月1日，美国三大股指全线暴跌，单日市值蒸发超1万亿美元。 刚刚公布的美国7月非农就业数据不及预期，使交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注，9月降息概率直线飙升，逼近90%。特朗普下令，立即解雇劳 工统计局局长Erika McEntarfer。此外，美联储理事库格勒提出辞职，特朗普迎来任命先机。 特朗普下令免职 在非农就业报告出炉几小时后，美国总统特朗普下令，立即解雇劳工统计局局长Erika McEntarfer。其副手William Wiatrowski将担任代理局长。 据AXIOS报道，白宫高级经济学家Stephen Miran称，一个重要的经济统计机构需要"新的视角"，但他没有重复特朗普总统关于周五就业数据存在 政治操纵的说法。 美联储理事库格勒将于下周辞职特朗普迎来任命先机 美联储理事库格勒递交辞呈，这使美联储理事会有空缺，特朗普能够提前任命一位青睐的候选人。 美联储在一份声明中表示，美联储理事库格勒将于下周辞职，目前库格勒已向美国总统特朗普递交辞呈，将于下周五（8月8日）卸任，回到乔治 敦大学担任教授。库格勒没有参加本周的美联储政策会议，理事会称其因个人事务缺席。库格勒曾担任美国劳工部首席经济学 ...

分析师：鲍威尔关注的失业率指标仍处于较低水平 金十数据8月1日讯，分析师评美国非农就业数据：这一组数据可能会让美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的反对票 看起来不那么具有政治意味。他们现在可以指出就业市场明显走弱的迹象作为依据。不过，鲍威尔曾表 示，他最关注的指标是失业率。这个月失业率确实上升到了4.2%，但这个水平仍称不上高。过去十年 的平均失业率为4.6%——而这个平均值还包括了因疫情而导致失业率升高的那两年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6400 points for the first time [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.02% [3] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks mostly gained, with the Wind US Tech Seven Giants Index rising by 0.65%. Tesla's stock increased by over 3%, adding $30.734 billion to its market capitalization, approximately ¥220.605 billion [6][7] - Other tech stocks such as Nvidia, META, Amazon, and Apple also saw increases, while Microsoft and Google experienced slight declines [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.69%, with notable gains in stocks like Yipeng Energy (up over 27%) and Wangban Technology (up over 18%) [8] European Market - All three major European indices declined, with Germany's DAX down 1.02%, France's CAC40 down 0.43%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.43% [9] Commodities - The international gold price decreased, with spot gold trading at $3314.18 per ounce, down 0.66% [10][11] - In contrast, international crude oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.79% and 2.82%, respectively [12] Currency Market - The US dollar index surged by 1.02%, while the euro fell by 1.3% against the dollar, indicating a strong dollar performance [10]

Core Insights - Since 2025, the London and Shanghai gold indices have increased by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively, with recent weekly changes of 1.61% and 1.39% [1] - The U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a downward trend, with a recent CPI of 2.4% in May 2023, slightly below expectations [1] - The balance of gold supply and demand remains tight, with increased investment demand contributing to a reduction in the global gold supply's looseness in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees increased by 0.3% in May 2025, remaining stable for three consecutive months [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential rate cut in September 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term while supporting short-term growth [1] - Central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are anticipated to support gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to factors such as a weakening dollar and geopolitical instability driving central bank purchases [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The previous value of non-farm payroll employment was revised from 139,000 to 144,000, indicating a positive adjustment in employment figures [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]