国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示,2025年12月份,制造业采购经理指数 (PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%,比上月上升0.9个、0.7 个和1.0个百分点,三大指数均升至扩张区间,我国经济景气水平总体回升。 制造业产需两端 均较上月明显扩张 数据显示,2025年12月份,制造业PMI为50.1%,4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个 行业PMI较上月回升,相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 "产需两端均明显回升,生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和50.8%,比上月上升1.7个和1.6个百分点,特别 是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上,制造业产需两端均较上月明显扩张。"国家统计局服务业 调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从行业看,农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 53.0%,产需两端加快释放；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点, 相关行业仍面临一定压力。在制造业产需回升带动下,企业采购活动加快,采购量指数为51.1%,升至扩张 区 ...

经营范围含许可经营项目：粮食加工食品生产；食品生产；预制菜加工（许可经营项目凭许可证件经 营）一般经营项目：食用农产品批发；租赁服务（不含许可类租赁服务）；农产品的生产、销售、加 工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务；食用农产品初加工（经营范围中的一般经营项目依法自主开展经营活 动，通过国家企业信用信息公示系统（海南）向社会公示） 企业名称海口市粮油经营有限公司法定代表人符燕梅注册资本1000万人民币国标行业制造业>农副食品 加工业>其他农副食品加工地址海南省海口市秀英区长流镇仲韶街9号复兴城国际数字港B座6楼企业类 型有限责任公司（非自然人投资或控股的法人独资）营业期限2025-12-31至无固定期限登记机关海南省 市场监督管理局 来源：市场资讯 天眼查显示，近日，海口市粮油经营有限公司成立，法定代表人为符燕梅，注册资本1000万人民币，由 海口市粮油集团有限公司全资持股。 序号股东名称持股比例1海口市粮油集团有限公司100% ...

同时，他也表示，贸易冲击仍在，国内房地产市场延续调整，2026年初宏观经济仍将面临一定下行压 力，稳增长政策将择机发力。 "中央经济工作会议提出要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，财政政策更加积极、货币政策适度宽松。具 体来看，货币政策会延续适度宽松基调，在传统信贷调控框架的有效性发生变化的背景下，政策传导机 制迎来新的变化。财政政策方面，预计将在'积极'与'可持续'之间寻求平衡，通过温和扩张来支持经济 增长，同时推进深层次的财税体制改革。"方正证券分析师许茹纯表示。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 时隔8个月，制造业PMI重回扩张区间。 12月31日，国家统计局发布数据显示，12月份制造业PMI为50.1%，为今年4月份以来首次升至扩张区 间。非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.2%和50.7%，比上月分别上升0.7个和1.0个百 分点，三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升，超出市场预期。 "整体上看，受稳增长政策发力、出口保持韧性等因素拉动，12月制造业PMI指数大幅回升。不过，当 月服务业PMI指数仅小幅上行，继续处于收缩状态，消费需求偏弱状况有待进一 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 制造业PMI重返扩张区间。 2025年12月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，12月份制造业采 购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，自4月以来首次升至扩张区间；非制造业商务 活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平同步改善。 对于12月制造业PMI明显回升的原因，东方金诚研究发展部总监冯琳对记者表示，这主要受到稳增长政 策持续发力、出口保持韧性等因素拉动。 冯琳分析称，9月末至10月初推出的"两个5000亿"稳增长政策中，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已于10 月投放完毕，对基础设施投资和制造业投资的拉动效应在12月开始显现；与此同时，年底前加发的5000 亿元专项债将补充地方财力，为项目建设提供约2000亿元新增资金，这些因素共同推动了国内市场需求 回暖。 产需两端明显回升成为本月数据的一大亮点。国家统计局数据显示，12月份生产指数和新订单指数分别 为51.7%和50.8%，比上月分别上升1.7个和1.6个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧在解读数据时表示，新订单指数为下半年以来首次 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, with the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month[3] - Manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone for the first time in 8 months, with indices for production and new orders rising by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively[3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing PMI for December shows significant growth, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries reporting an increase[3] - High-tech manufacturing saw the most notable improvement, with a PMI of 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] Construction and Services - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly, with a business activity index at 52.8%, indicating a recovery driven by favorable weather and pre-holiday construction activities[3] - Service sector sentiment showed a slight recovery, but retail and catering industries remain under pressure, with business activity indices in contraction zones[3] Price Indices - The purchasing price index for raw materials fell slightly by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing gap between supply and demand[3] - The PPI year-on-year decline is expected to narrow to between -2.1% and -2% as the PMI remains above negative territory for five consecutive months[3] Risks and Recommendations - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[2][13] - Investment recommendations suggest a strong buy for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[14]

2025 年 12 月 31 日 制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn —固定收益点评报告 12 月制造业 PMI 为 50.1，回升 0.9，4 月份以来首次升至扩 张区间；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2，环比回升 0.7。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：景气度明显改善 生产指数大幅提升 1.7 至 51.7。新订单指数提升 1.6 至 50.8，其中新出口订单提升 1.4 至 49。企业生产经营活动积 极性明显提升：原材料库存回升 0.5 至 47.8；生产回升带动 采购量大幅回升 0.6 至 51.1，生产经营活动预期提升 2.4 至 55.5。从行业看，农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通 信电子设备等行业产需均高于 53；非金属矿物制品、黑色金 属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点. 企业盈利边际改善。原材料购进价格下降 0.5，出厂价格指 数增长 0.7。 大型企业经营状况回升至荣枯线之上。大、中、小型企业 12 月 PMI 分别变动 1.5 ...

Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index for December is 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity[2] - The composite PMI output index is 50.7%, reflecting overall economic activity improvement compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index for December is 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing[3] - The production expectation index for manufacturing is 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, showing increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market development[2] - The new export orders index is 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, suggesting stable development in manufacturing exports[3] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in price increases for raw materials[4] - The factory price index is 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, marking a second consecutive month of increase in finished product prices[4] - Price trends are diverging, with high-energy-consuming industries experiencing a decline in purchasing prices, while equipment and high-tech manufacturing maintain a faster price increase[4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improvement in the non-manufacturing sector[7] - The construction industry business activity index is 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, reflecting a return to expansion in the construction sector[7]

新华社记者王雨萧、魏玉坤 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会12月31日发布数据显示，12月份，制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月 上升0.9个、0.7个和1.0个百分点，三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 新华社北京12月31日电 题：三大指数均升至扩张区间 经济景气水平总体回升——透视12月PMI数 据 制造业PMI升至临界点以上，产需两端明显回升—— 数据显示，12月份，制造业PMI为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16 个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 "产需两端均明显回升，生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和50.8%，比上月上升1.7个和1.6个百 分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业产需两端均较上月明显扩张。"国家 统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从行业看，农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高 于53.0%，产需两端加快释放；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, as indicated by the rise in manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) in December, signaling a recovery in market demand and a more proactive economic policy [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for December stands at 50.1%, marking a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous month, breaking an eight-month streak below 50% and entering the expansion zone [3]. - Among the 13 sub-indices, production, new orders, new export orders, backlogs, finished goods inventory, purchasing volume, ex-factory prices, raw material inventory, supplier delivery times, and production expectations all showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 2.4 percentage points [3]. - The new orders index has risen above the critical point for the first time since the second half of the year, with specific industries like food processing, textiles, and electronics showing production and new orders indices above 53.0% [3]. Industry-Specific Insights - In the 21 manufacturing sectors surveyed, 16 sectors reported a rise in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved operational conditions [5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, indicating expansion [5]. - However, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting remain under pressure, with their indices below the critical point [4]. Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector's business activity index and new orders index both rose for two consecutive months, exceeding 60%, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy [6]. - The construction sector's business activity index increased to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, ending a four-month period below 50% and signaling a rebound in construction activities [6][7]. Business Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose to 55.5%, the highest since April 2024, while the service sector's expectation index reached 56.4% [8]. - The positive outlook is supported by clear policy signals and a stable trade environment, suggesting a solid foundation for the upcoming year [8]. Future Economic Outlook - The economic policies outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to provide strategic direction for the next five years, with the recent Central Economic Work Conference setting clear goals for 2026 [9]. - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to achieve steady growth in both quality and quantity in 2026, driven by multiple positive factors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, as indicated by the rise in manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index, all entering the expansion zone in December [1][3]. Manufacturing PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking its first rise above 50% after eight consecutive months [3]. - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, new export orders index, backlog orders index, finished goods inventory index, purchasing volume index, ex-factory price index, raw materials inventory index, supplier delivery time index, and production and business activity expectation index all showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 2.4 percentage points [3]. - The new orders index rose above the critical point for the first time since the second half of the year, indicating a positive trend in market expectations [3]. Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating a favorable growth trend [4]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both recorded PMIs of 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points respectively, also entering the expansion zone [4]. - High-energy-consuming industries had a PMI of 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points, continuing to show recovery [4]. Financial Sector Activity - The financial sector's business activity index and new orders index both rose for two consecutive months, exceeding 60%, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy [6]. - The construction industry business activity index increased to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, ending a four-month period below 50% [6]. Business Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index reached 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, the highest since April 2024 [8]. - The service industry business activity expectation index rose to 56.4%, up 0.5 percentage points, while construction firms maintained optimistic market expectations with their index above 57% for two consecutive months [8]. Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to average 49.6% in 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, with December's rise indicating a positive end to the year and a solid foundation for the new year [9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" provides strategic direction for economic and social development, with recent policy signals and the Central Economic Work Conference outlining clear deployments for 2026, which are expected to inject momentum into macroeconomic development [9].