2 月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 2 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，景气水平较上月下降。从历史数据看，春节所在月份 的 PMI 大多会出现一些波动，尤其今年春节假期有所延长且全部落在 2 月中下旬，企业生产 经营受到一定影响，制造业市场活跃度总体有所下降。 （一）产需两端均有放缓。 生产指数和新订单指数分别为 49.6% 和 48.6% ，比上月下 降 1.0 个和 0.6 个百分点，制造业生产和市场需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、计 算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于临界点以上，产需景气水平保持扩 张；纺织服装服饰、汽车等行业两个指数继续低于临界点，市场活跃度偏弱。 （二）大型企业 PMI 继续扩张。 大型企业 PMI 为 51.5% ，比上月上升 1.2 个百分 点，大型企业生产经营保持扩张；中、小型企业受春节假期影响较大，本月 PMI 分别为 47.5% 和 44.8% ，比上月下降 1.2 个和 2.6 个百分点，景气水平回落。 （三）高技术制造业增长动能持续显现。 高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.5% ，继续位于扩张 区间，明显高于制造 ...

PMI 季节性回落，一季度力争开门稳 ——2026 年 2 月 PMI 分析 2026 年 3 月 4 日 国家统计局 3 月 4 日发布数据：2026 年 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为 48.2%（前值 48.8%）； 服务业商务活动指数为 49.7%（前值 49.5%）。 核心观点：整体来看，2 月 PMI 回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动，供需两 端均出现阶段性放缓，生产活动与订单指标同步回落，但幅度基本符合历史季节性 规律。从结构上看，电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度，而纺织服装、汽车 等传统行业需求仍偏弱，制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方面，上游原材料价格指 数边际回落，出厂价格保持稳定，成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛，若该趋势延续， 将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方面，产成品库存下降而原材料库存小 幅回升，整体库存仍处于波动状态，企业普遍采取"以销定产"的谨慎策略，库存 维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来，随着春节因素逐步消退，3 月制造业生产活动 预计会修复，生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面，OECD ...

3 月 4 日，2 月 PMI 数据公布，结合前期已经公布的 EPMI、BCI 等经济软指标，我们简要点评如下： ⚫ 2 月制造业 PMI 大致吻合季节性。2 月是制造业淡季，历史上春节部分相近年份的 2 月制造业景气度以环比下 行为主，今年叠加长假影响，环比下行 0.3 个点基本符合预期。 据万得数据（下同），2 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0，低于前值的 49.3。 在前期报告《2 月 EPMI 数据带来哪些增量信息》中，我们指出：预计 2 月制造业 PMI 面临继续放缓的压力。 2 月制造业 PMI 季节性特征以环比下行为主，2015、2018、2021 和 2024 年 2 月环比变动分别为+0.1pct、-1.0 pct、-0.7 pct、-0.1 pct。 ⚫ BCI 数据环比也有所回踩，但因为其兼容环同比，所以中枢相对更积极一些，1 月和 2 月绝对值均处于 2025 年 4 月以来的高点，即 2026 年初经济同比意义上有小幅高开特征。在周度报告中，我们估算 1-2 月累计实际同比 增速为 4.86%。 [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 证券研究报告 [ ...

（来源：中国银河宏观） 国家统计局3月4日发布数据：2026年2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.2%（前值 48.8%）；服务业商务活动指数为49.7%（前值49.5%）。 核心观点：整体来看，2月PMI回落主要受春节假期等季节性因素扰动，供需两端均出现阶段性放缓，生产活动与订单指标同步回落，但幅度基本符合历 史季节性规律。从结构上看，电子通信等新动能行业仍保持较强景气度，而纺织服装、汽车等传统行业需求仍偏弱，制造业内部呈现一定分化。价格方 面，上游原材料价格指数边际回落，出厂价格保持稳定，成本与售价之间的缺口有所收敛，若该趋势延续，将对工业企业利润修复形成一定支撑。库存方 面，产成品库存下降而原材料库存小幅回升，整体库存仍处于波动状态，企业普遍采取"以销定产"的谨慎策略，库存维持在相对紧平衡区间。展望未来， 随着春节因素逐步消退，3月制造业生产活动预计会修复，生产指数和新订单指数预计将有所回升。外需方面，OECD综合领先目前指向到6月份我国出口 累计同比延续温和上行，意味着外需仍具有韧性；内需则仍有赖于政策进一步发力以及终端消费和投资需求的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

经常有朋友咨询在海南加工增值30%免税的问题，比如：海南加工增值30%免税是什么意思？2026年海 南加工增值30%政策应用范围有哪些？2026年海南加工增值30%免关税申请流程是什么？下面由海南博 宇的小宇给大家详细解答。 一、海南加工增值30%免税是什么意思？ 核心结论：这是海南自贸港核心贸易政策，依据《海南自由贸易港法》《海南自由贸易港建设总体方 案》及海关总署2025年第158号公告，鼓励类企业在海南把含进口料件的货物加工到增值≥30%，经"二 线"运内地可免进口关税（仍缴增值税、消费税），降低企业成本、推动高附加值加工。 （一）一句话讲清：为啥能免税、免啥税 （二）30%增值怎么算？官方公式+举例 1. 官方计算公式（海关总署2025年第158号公告） 增值率 =（加工后货物总值 - 进口料件+境内采购料件总值）÷（进口料件+境内采购料件总值）×100% ≥30% - 进口料件：含保税、零关税货物，没缴完进口税的境外货。 - 境内采购料件：海南自产且经认定的货物可计入增值，更容易达标。 2. 大白话举例（牛肉加工） - 进口料件：阿根廷生牛肉35.6万元（关税12%，约4.3万元）。 - 加工后：牛 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Changshouhua (Shandong) Food Marketing Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 10 million RMB, fully owned by Changshouhua (Shandong) Food Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Company Information - The legal representative of the company is Yang Jian [1] - The registered capital is 10 million RMB [1] - The company is located at Room 201, No. 10, Sanxing Road, Handian Town, Zouping City, Binzhou, Shandong Province [1] - The company type is a limited liability company (wholly owned by a legal entity) [1] - The business term is from February 14, 2026, to an indefinite period [1] - The registration authority is the Market Supervision Administration of Zouping City, Binzhou [1] Business Scope - The business scope includes food sales, internet food sales, and food management [1] - It also covers marketing planning, sales of pre-packaged food, and sales of health food (pre-packaged) [1] - The company can conduct business activities independently based on its business license, except for projects that require approval [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Bowan Technology (600883) has shown a fluctuating trend, with a slight increase from 8.86 yuan to 8.91 yuan, representing a 0.56% rise over the period [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock experienced a price fluctuation range of 4.85% during the observed period [1] - Trading volume varied significantly, with a peak trading amount of 64.65 million yuan on February 6, decreasing to 42.53 million yuan by February 12 [1] - The stock is currently trading near the middle band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands, with a short-term resistance level at 9.16 yuan [1] Group 2: Recent Events - On February 6, 2026, the net inflow of main funds into Bowan Technology was 2.73 million yuan, accounting for 4.22% of the total trading volume [2] - The company announced the use of 2.0457 million USD of its own funds through a subsidiary to purchase low-risk financial products [2] - There have been no other significant announcements or events recently, with the business focus remaining on the processing of agricultural and sideline products such as edible mushrooms, ham, and coffee [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Institutional interest in Bowan Technology is relatively low, with no new research reports or rating adjustments recently [3] - As of February 13, 2026, market sentiment is neutral, and the frequency of institutional research is ranked low within the industry [3] - The fund holding ratio is only 0.02%, indicating limited institutional participation [3]

宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a decline in CPI and an improvement in PPI due to various factors including seasonal effects and policy implementations [3][5]. CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with a notable decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to December [3][5]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival and a significant drop in energy prices, which fell by 5.0%, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decrease [5][7]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [5][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7][8]. - Key factors driving PPI growth include the ongoing construction of a unified national market and increased demand in certain industries, leading to price increases in sectors such as photovoltaic, power batteries, cement, and steel [7][8]. - Specific price changes include a 0.1% increase in cement and lithium-ion battery manufacturing, a 1.9% increase in photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and a 0.5% increase in computer and communication equipment manufacturing due to rising demand for digital technologies [7][8]. Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that favorable factors for moderate price recovery are accumulating, with expectations for expanded consumer demand supported by fiscal and financial policies [8]. - The emphasis on industry self-discipline and capacity management is expected to continue, contributing to price stabilization and recovery [8].