Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

"生产经营活动预期指数为54.1%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续三个月回升，表明制造业企业对近期 市场发展预期向好。从行业看，农副食品加工、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期 指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展信心较强。"霍丽慧说。 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看，邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传 输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业务总量保持较快增长； 同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民出行消费密切相关的餐饮、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数落至 临界点以下。 中国物流信息中心分析师武威说，年末的"年底效应"与"节日效应"将带动投资和消费相关需求集中释 放，建筑业和服务消费景气度均将有所回升。同时，一系列系统性政策举措将逐步显效，市场预期有望 稳步改善，内需潜力将继续释放，为四季度经济回升向好势头巩固提供支撑。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬认为，总体来看，9月份宏观经济稳中向好，多个积极因素累积，市场活 力趋于 ...

2025 年 09 月 30 日 企业生产积极性明显提升，高技术产业领先 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 9 月制造业 PMI 为 49.8，环比继续回升 0.4；非制造业 PMI 为 50.0，环比下降 0.3；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.6，环比上 升 0.1。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：景气度明显改善 生产指数大幅提升提升 1.1 至 51.9，为近 6 个月高点。新订 单指数提升 0.2 至 49.7，其中新出口订单提升 0.6 至 47.8。 企业生产经营活动积极性明显提升：进口指标回升 0.1 至 48.1；原材料库存回升 0.5 至 48.5；生产回升带动采购量大 幅回升 1.2 至 51.6。 从行业看，从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船 舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 54.0， 产需释放较快；木材加工及家具、石油煤炭及其他燃料加 工、非金属矿物制品等行业产需指数低于临界点。 企业盈利持续承压,供大于求的问题仍然比较突出。原材料购 进 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] - Industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and aerospace equipment showed production and new order indices above 54.0%, indicating rapid demand release [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - The procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing production, as companies accelerated raw material purchases [1] - The new export orders index rose to 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, marking two consecutive months of increase, supported by stable performance in traditional export sectors [2] - The production-related indices indicate a steady increase in manufacturing activities since the second half of the year, with supply-side vitality continuing to rise [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in the sector [3] - The service sector business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, with sectors like postal and financial services showing strong growth [3] - The financial sector's business activity index has risen above 60% for two consecutive months, indicating robust performance and support for the real economy [3] Group 4: Future Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for September is 54.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting positive market outlook among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The service sector business activity expectation index is at 56.3%, indicating stable optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future development [4] - Experts anticipate a demand surge in the restaurant and entertainment sectors due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, which may boost industry performance [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

9月中国制造业PMI升至49.8% 企业生产扩张加快 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 54.0%，产需释放较快。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 9月份，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，持续高于临界点，保持平稳扩张态势；中型 企业PMI为48.8%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，景气水平基本平稳；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升 1.6个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业这三大重点行业较快扩张，PMI分别为51.9%、51.6%和 50.6%，均明显高于制造业总体，同时上述重点行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于扩张区间，企业供需 两端较为活跃；高耗能行业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。 9月份，生产经营活动预期指数为54.1%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续三个月回升，表明制造业企业 对近期市场发展预期向好。霍丽慧指出，从行业看，农副食品加工、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行 业生产经营活动预期指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展信心 ...

本报记者 孟珂 9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理 指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百 分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群对《证券日报》记者表示，9月份PMI指数继续小幅回升，表 明稳增长多项政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回 升，显示企业生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求 的情况仍然比较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。 服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看，邮政、 电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业 务总量保持较快增长；同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民 ...

2025年9月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 （二）小型企业PMI回升。大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，持续高于临界点，保持平 稳扩张态势；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，景气水平基本平稳；小型企业PMI为 48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 （一）服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看， 邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量保持较快增长；同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民出行消费密切相关的餐饮、文化体育 娱乐等行业商务活动指数落至临界点以下。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为56.3%，今年以来始终 位于55.0%以上较高景气区间，表明服务业企业对行业发展预期稳定乐观。 （二）建筑业商务活动指数小幅回升。建筑业商务活动指数为49.3%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，建筑业 景气水平小幅回升。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为52. ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for September is 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][4] - The production index reached 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while the new orders index rose to 49.7%, suggesting improved market demand [4] - Small enterprises showed a PMI increase to 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in their economic conditions [4][5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability in the overall business volume of the non-manufacturing sector [6] - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone, with certain industries like postal and financial services showing strong growth [6] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly increased to 49.3%, reflecting a minor recovery in construction activity [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Analysis - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a continued acceleration in overall production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contribute to the comprehensive PMI, standing at 51.9% and 50.0% respectively [7]

9月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 9月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上 月下降0.3个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有 加快。 二、非制造业商务活动指数位于临界点 2025年9月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 一、制造业采购经理指数继续回升 9月份，制造业生产活动加快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善。 （一）企业生产扩张加快。生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，升至近6个月高点，制造业生 产活动较为活跃；新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，市场需求景气度有所改善。从行业 看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于54.0%， 产需释放较快；木材加工及家具、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、非金属矿物制品等行业两个指数均低于临 界点。受制造业生产回升带动，企业加快原材料采购，采购量指数升至51.6%。 （二）小型企业PM ...