Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on hot-rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year performance is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high and there is some pressure, it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be relieved. The 05 contract of hot-rolled coils decreased in position and volume today, and there is still a possibility of further weakening. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low point [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the position of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 15,864 lots, and the trading volume was 471,822 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,307 yuan. It decreased in position and price during the day, breaking below the 5-day and 60-day moving averages, and closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or 0.97% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 4 yuan, close to parity [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. Production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, some steel mills allocating molten iron from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance in steel mills with increased resumption of production. The follow-up increase in supply needs to be observed [4] - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, and year-on-year, it increased by 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production in steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has declined slightly, it remains strong year-on-year. A slight decline in demand during the off-season is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 12,752 lots, and the trading volume was 404,061 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,296 yuan, and the high was 3,323 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated with increased open interest during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -13 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year, and the output has been rising for three consecutive weeks. This is mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the increased resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The follow-up supply increase needs to be observed [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. Although the apparent consumption declined slightly, it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - **Inventory Side**: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a near 5-year high. Inventory still exerts pressure on prices [4]. - **Policy Side**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of being cautiously bullish on hot - rolled coils [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production pressure of hot - rolled coils is not significant. The anti - involution policy provides strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has slightly declined, the year - on - year performance is still strong. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The strong performance of coking coal and coke and the sharp rise of iron ore provide strong cost support. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot - rolled coil market has large fluctuations and is currently near the moving - average support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach and buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Friday decreased compared with the previous trading day. It decreased in position and fluctuated within the day, standing above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, closing at 3294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton or 1.02% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 14 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to spot [2] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared with the previous week, and increased by 16,200 tons year - on - year. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks due to improved profitability of steel mills, iron - water transfer from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after annual maintenance [3] - Demand: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared with the previous week, showing a slight decline. However, it increased by 72,500 tons year - on - year, indicating that demand still has resilience [3] - Inventory: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons. The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a high level in the past five years, exerting pressure on prices [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference in December are beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real - estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron - ore prices [5] - Bearish factors: Exceeding - expected resumption of production of steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and price suppression due to inventory accumulation [5]