【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 23805 手，成交量 515603 手， 相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3274 元，最高价 3317 元，日内减仓震荡整理， 日均线来看站上 5 日，10 日，20 日均线，表现强势，收于 3294 元/吨，下跌 34 元/吨，跌幅 1.02%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 8 日总库存周环比下降 2.83 万吨至 368.13 万吨（社会 库存增 2.17 万吨，钢厂库存降 5 万吨，总库存降 2.83 万吨），总库存维持去库， 但去库幅度收窄，总库存处于近 5 年高位。库存对价格的压制作用仍然存在。 ■政策面：钢材出口许可证管理新规出台，短期将导致出口波动，供应增加， 价格承压，长期则推动产业升级，结构优化，竞争力提升。12 月召开的中央经 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 济会议宏观面积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 ...

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周三持仓量增仓 63008 手，成交量 696880 手， 相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3302 元，最高价 3348 元，日内震荡运行，洗 盘较为剧烈，日均线来看站上 5 日，10 日，20 日均线，表现强势，收于 3317 元/吨，上涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 0.48%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3320 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 20 元。 3，基差：期现基差 3 元，基差接近平水。 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 8 日热卷周产量环比上升 1 万吨至 305.51 万吨。年同 比上升 1.62 万吨，产量连续三周回升，主要还是钢厂盈利改善，生产积极性有 所提升，叠加部分钢厂铁水从建材向板材调配，且钢厂结束年度检修，复产力度 加大。推动供应回升，后续需要观察回升力度。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 8 日周度表观消费量环比下降 2.43 万吨至 308.34 万吨， 表需小幅回落，年同比上升 7.25 万吨，需求仍然存在韧性， 投资有风险，入市 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周一持仓量增仓 26969 手，成交量 391613 手， 相比上一交易日增量，日内最低价 3243 元，最高价 3277 元，日内增仓下跌，收 于 3248 元/吨，下跌 26 元/吨，跌幅 0.79%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3270 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 22 元，基差接近平水。 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 ■偏多因素：供应端产量下降明显，冬储需求启动预期，抢出口行情，政策托底 （"十五五"规划、基建投资），炉料铁矿偏强 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 31 日热卷周产量环比上升 10.97 万吨至 304.51 万吨。 本周热卷产量连续两周回升，且相比上周大幅回升。主要还是钢厂盈利改善，生 产积极性有所提升，叠加部分钢厂铁水从建材向板材调配，且钢厂结束年度检修， 复产力度加大。推动供应回升，后续需要观察回升力度。 ■需求端：截止 12 月 31 日周度表观消费量环比上升 3.73 万吨至 310.77 万吨，表需回 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周一持仓量增仓 43907 手，成交量 511982 手， 相比上一交易日增量，日内最低价 3280 元，最高价 3308 元，日内震荡整理运行， 收于 3287 元/吨，上涨 18 元/吨，涨幅 0.55%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 20 元。 3，基差：期现基差 3 元，基差接近平水。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 25 日热卷周产量环比上升 1。63 万吨至 293.54 万吨。 公历同比下降 13.60 万吨。本周热卷产量在上周大幅回落后出现回升，目前处于 年内最低水平附近，且处于近 4 年低位，提升价格支撑。减产主要由于利润收缩， 钢厂检修增多，部分钢厂向螺纹钢转产，季节性淡季。 ■需求端：截止 12 月 25 日周度表观消费量环比上升 8.76 万吨至 307.04 万吨，公历同比下降 2.29 万吨。本周表需回升，抢出口行情显现，但后续还要 关注 1 月的冬储行情。 ■库存端：截止 12 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector continued to decline today but rebounded slightly at the end of the session. Steel spot trading was weak overall, with poor speculative interest and mainly刚需 purchases. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five - Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to expand [8]. - The steel market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and a significant drop in demand. Although the short - term market is affected by news and under pressure, the low valuation of the futures market and the rise in thermal coal prices suggest that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3114 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 2970 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan), and RB01 at 3061 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面 profit was - 142 yuan (up 7 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 285 yuan (up 19 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 9 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3180 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng at 3280 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Shandong Shiheng at 3160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3160 yuan/ton. Rebar profits in different regions showed various changes, with East China rebar profit at - 228 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and Tangshan rebar profit at - 319 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3248 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), HC10 at 3442 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3241 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面 profit was - 8 yuan (up 6 yuan), the 10 - contract was 187 yuan (up 40 yuan), and the 01 - contract was 14 yuan (up 11 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was at 3260 - 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 - 30 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil profits in different regions also changed, with Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit at - 341 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan) and East China hot - rolled coil profit at - 227 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3180 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (down 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3220 yuan (down 30 yuan) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Important News** - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, and exports were 10,609 units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [11]. - The Ministry of Transport issued a document on charging port fees for US ships, which has limited impact on iron ore transportation [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil contract basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures market was affected by rising raw material prices, causing finished products to follow suit, but the increase was weak due to lack of demand improvement and negative trading sentiment [2] - According to Steel Union data, the blast furnace operating rate rose 0.15% to 83.98% week - on - week, while the steel mill profitability dropped 1.30% to 58.87%. The production profit of hot - rolled coils was relatively good, so steel mills would adjust production. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in China increased by 1.35 million tons to 3.2649 billion tons, and the total inventory of five major products decreased by 1.78 million tons to 15.1974 billion tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 4.67 million tons, and demand decreased by 4.34 million tons to 3.2182 billion tons, suppressing the rise of spot prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The hot - rolled coil futures price showed a state of rising first, then falling, and finally closing slightly higher. The upward trend was difficult, indicating weak market bullish sentiment [3] - **Variety Market**: As of September 19, the opening price of the HC2601 main contract of hot - rolled coils was 3361 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3374 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3417 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3339 yuan/ton, and it rose 10 yuan/ton this week [6] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The average price of Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coils in major Chinese cities was 3407 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot profit was 150 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. The weekly average trading volume decreased 6.1% week - on - week, but Friday's restocking led to a high - volume trading day [7] - **Basis Data**: The basis between Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot and the futures main contract was 46 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference between East China and North China narrowed by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with weak motivation for northern steel to move south [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: The spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would continue to promote supply - side structural reform in the steel industry and ban new production capacity, with a neutral short - term impact on the market [11] - **Technical Analysis**: For the HC2601 contract, the daily MACD indicator showed that the upward momentum was weakening, the RSI (14 - day) entered the neutral range, and the Bollinger Bands formed a current trading range of 3350 - 3400 yuan/ton [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - From September 15 - 19, the hot - rolled coil futures main contract showed a state of "range - bound trading and long - short game". The core contradiction was the imbalance between high supply and weak demand. In the short term, the hot - rolled coil futures may maintain range - bound trading, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking progress and marginal improvement signals in manufacturing demand [13]