Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report indicates that although export demand provides bottom support, the lack of domestic terminal purchasing enthusiasm restricts the upward price space. Considering the continuous reduction of futures positions and technical pressure signs, the market may remain range - bound in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on the steel mill start - up rate and downstream order data to be released tomorrow [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 25, 2026, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 was 3313 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous settlement price. The opening price was 3324 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3340 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3304 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 302,300 lots, and the open interest was 1,003,100 lots, a decrease of 21,200 lots from the previous trading day. The market showed a narrow - range shock consolidation trend with a small outflow of funds [2]. 3.2现货市场 On March 25, the overall spot price of hot - rolled coils in the country was stable. The average national price of hot - rolled coils was 3327 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market showed a stable - to - strong pattern, but the actual transaction follow - up was insufficient [3]. 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: This week, the total domestic hot - rolled coil production was about 3.4175 million tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coil rolling lines was 83.35%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points. The inventory of sample steel mills was about 811,800 tons, a decrease of 39,200 tons from last week. The average number of days of orders on hand for steel mills was 29 days, the same as last week. Hot - rolled coil production has entered a small - scale production increase cycle, and steel mills still have certain marginal profits, with the capacity utilization rate operating at a relatively high level [4]. - **技术分析**: The price is currently running near the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, and the short - term moving average system shows a long - position arrangement but with a gentle slope. The trading volume remains at around 300,000 lots, and the open interest is stable at the 1 - million - lot level, with moderate market participation. From the perspective of volatility, the recent price fluctuation range has narrowed, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment and waiting for a directional breakthrough. The technical side as a whole shows a shock consolidation pattern, and the short - term direction is unclear [5]. 3.4行情展望 In the short term, the market may remain range - bound. Key attention should be paid to the steel mill start - up rate and downstream order data to be released tomorrow [6].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating of the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core Viewpoint - The hot - rolled coil main contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. Although the current situation is one of increasing supply and demand, with the apparent consumption rebounding significantly and the arrival of the seasonal peak season, and the overall output contracting, which supports the price, the high - level inventory restricts the upside space to a certain extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction progress [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract decreased by 31,099 lots, with a trading volume of 253,950 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. In terms of the moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3,312 in the short - term, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3,255, and was running above the medium - term resistance of the 60 - day moving average of around 3,272 [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,300 yuan per ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 24 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The actual weekly output was 300.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 million tons. Steel mills' resumption of production was moderate, and the supply contraction was obvious year - on - year, so the supply side exerted limited pressure on prices [4] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption was 310.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 million tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the future [4] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 376.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 million tons. It was the first weekly inventory reduction, but the absolute quantity was still much higher than last year. Steel mill inventory was 84.96 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 million tons, and the inventory pressure was relieved. The total inventory was 461.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 million tons. It ended the inventory accumulation phase and entered the inventory reduction phase, but the total inventory was still at a high level. The entry into weekly inventory reduction verified the start of demand, but the absolute quantity of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio were still at high levels, suppressing the upside space of prices [4] - **Policy**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "Two New" projects, boosting medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and rising raw material prices [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The main hot-rolled coil contract is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The short - and medium - term moving averages are strengthening, standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The market is currently in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The apparent demand has rebounded significantly recently, and the seasonal peak season is approaching. The overall production has shrunk, which supports the price. However, the high inventory restricts the upside potential to some extent. Now that the de - stocking process has started, attention should be paid to the subsequent de - stocking progress [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: The open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 42,832 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 472,394 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average around 3310 in the short term, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3253 in the medium term, and was running above the medium - term resistance of the 60 - day moving average around 3270 [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 40 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The actual weekly production was 3.0021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 241,200 tons. The resumption of production by steel mills was moderate, and the supply contraction year - on - year was obvious. The supply side exerted limited pressure on prices [4] - **Demand Side**: The apparent consumption was 3.1051 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 151,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 201,400 tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the follow - up [4] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 3.7633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 522,800 tons. The social inventory had its first weekly de - stocking, but the absolute quantity was still much higher than last year. The steel mill inventory was 849,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,200 tons, and the pressure on steel mill inventory was relieved. The total inventory was 4.6129 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 513,900 tons. It ended the inventory accumulation phase and entered the de - stocking phase, but the total inventory was still at a high level. The first weekly de - stocking verified the start of demand, but the absolute social inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upside space of prices [4] - **Policy Side**: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence in the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It would take time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The market is currently in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a significant recent rebound in apparent demand and the arrival of the seasonal peak season. The overall production has contracted, which supports prices. However, the high inventory level restricts the upside space to a certain extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction progress [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: The hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its open interest by 44,974 lots on Friday, with a trading volume of 276,514 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average of around 3,303 in the short term, but is above the 30-day moving average of 3,252 and the 60-day moving average of around 3,270 in the medium term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai is reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between the futures and the spot is -7 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The actual weekly production is 3.0021 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 49,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 241,200 tons. The resumption of production by steel mills is moderate, and the supply contraction compared to the same period last year is obvious, so the supply side exerts limited pressure on prices [4]. - **Demand Side**: The apparent consumption is 3.1051 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 151,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 201,400 tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry has driven the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak compared to the same period last year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory is 3.7633 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year-on-year increase of 522,800 tons. The social inventory has been reduced for the first time on a weekly basis, but the absolute quantity is still much higher than that of last year. The steel mill inventory is 849,600 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,200 tons, and the pressure has been relieved. The total inventory is 4.6129 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 513,900 tons. It has ended the inventory accumulation stage and entered the inventory reduction stage, but the total inventory is still at a high level. The entry into the weekly inventory reduction for the first time verifies the start of demand, but the absolute quantity of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [4]. - **Policy Side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arrange special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and there is no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It still takes time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of high inventory in the short term [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the hot - rolled coil industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to continue to operate in an oscillating and slightly bullish manner. Although the supply pressure is relieved due to production cuts, the demand has not fully recovered, and the high inventory still forms a pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Tuesday decreased compared with the previous trading day, with a reduction of 3908 lots in open interest. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3290 again, the 30 - day moving average was 3251, and the medium - term pressure was around the 60 - day moving average of 3267 [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 33 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 295.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.85 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons. Steel mills actively reduced production, and the supply - side pressure was relieved [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 295.36 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 13.79 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35.99 million tons. The weekly apparent demand rebounded, but it was still weak year - on - year, and the demand had not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 382.31 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 89.28 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons, indicating inventory reduction in the factory. The total inventory was 471.59 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons. The total inventory increased significantly year - on - year, the social inventory accumulated obviously, the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, and the market inventory removal pressure was not fundamentally relieved [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not improved substantially, and it still takes time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [5] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - disturbances [5] Short - term View Summary - The main hot - rolled coil contract oscillated with shrinking volume and closed up on Tuesday. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average, and the pressure should be noted near the previous pressure platform. Fundamentally, affected by the Middle East event, raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal are strong, providing strong cost support. The production decline has relieved the supply pressure, and the apparent demand has continued to rebound after the Spring Festival, but it is still at a low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to its sustainability. The high inventory forms a pressure, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner. The short - and medium - term trends are strengthening, with cost support from raw materials, supply pressure relieved by production decline, and demand showing a post - holiday recovery but still at a low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the subsequent inventory reduction rhythm [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 14,370 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 292,044 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average around 3278, the 30 - day moving average was 3250, and the medium - term pressure was around the 60 - day moving average of 3265 [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 295.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.85 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons. Steel mills actively reduced production, and both the year - on - year and month - on - month production decreased, alleviating the supply - side pressure [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 295.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.79 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35.99 million tons. The weekly apparent demand rebounded, but it was still weak year - on - year, and the demand had not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons, indicating a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 471.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons. The total inventory increased significantly year - on - year, the social inventory accumulated obviously, the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, and the market inventory reduction pressure was not fundamentally relieved [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not improved substantially, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [5] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of game between "weak reality" (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and "strong expectation" (export support, policy benefits). Price increases depend on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. The key in the medium term is the recovery strength of terminal demand [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday was 278,376 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average broke above the 5-day moving average of 3,246 and the 30-day moving average of 3,251. The medium-term resistance is around the 60-day moving average of 3,265. The open interest decreased by 4,576 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,250 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot prices was -19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (-2.75%) from the previous week, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons from the previous week. Post-festival demand recovery was below expectations. In absolute terms, it remains at a relatively low level compared to historical periods, and the weak reality persists. The actual start of work in downstream manufacturing and the automotive industry needs further verification [4] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+6.78%) from the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (-4.96%) from the previous week, indicating a reduction in in-plant inventory. Total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+3.21%) from the previous week, indicating that overall inventory is still increasing. Inventory levels in 2026 are higher than in previous years, and inventory pressure remains [4] - **Policy**: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and allocating 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting medium- and long-term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not improved substantially, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot-rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from raw material prices, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro uncertainties [5] Short-Term Outlook - The main hot-rolled coil contract closed up on Wednesday with a decrease in open interest and trading volume. Short-term support is around the 30-day and 5-day moving averages, and resistance is around this week's high. In the short and medium term, the moving averages are showing signs of strengthening. The market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation." The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed in mid-to-late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply-side production [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of "oscillating weakly" for the hot - rolled coil market [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil market is in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills and policy expectations form the bottom support, and the downward space is limited. The key in the medium - term is the recovery intensity of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The trading volume of the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures on Tuesday was 414,803 lots, a significant reduction compared with the previous trading day. The short - term average daily line broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3235 and the 30 - day moving average of 3251, with the medium - term pressure at the 60 - day moving average of around 3266. The position decreased by 22,947 lots [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 6 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (- 2.75%) compared with the previous week, with a slight contraction in production [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons compared with the previous week, indicating that the post - holiday demand recovery was less than expected. In absolute terms, it was still at a medium - to - low level in the same period of history, and the pattern of weak reality remained unchanged. The actual start - up of downstream manufacturing and automobile terminals still needed to be verified [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+ 6.78%) compared with the previous week, with continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (- 4.96%) compared with the previous week, with a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+ 3.21%) compared with the previous week, and the overall inventory was still increasing. The inventory level in 2026 was higher than in previous years, and the inventory pressure still existed [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence in the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not seen substantial improvement, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6] Short - term View Summary - With the rise and fall of crude oil, the hot - rolled coil market oscillated weakly. In the short term, the support was around the 30 - day and 5 - day moving averages, and the pressure was around the high point of this week. After the sentiment subsided, it would return to the fundamentals, and it was expected to oscillate weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and the realization of orders, and the changes in supply - side production [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the hot-rolled coil futures contract showed a significant reduction in positions and an oscillating upward trend. The short-term support is near the 30-day moving average, and the pressure is near the intraday high. The current hot-rolled coil futures are in a stage of game between "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation, and the downside space is limited. The focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry, order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side output [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Monday had a reduction of 106,185 lots in positions, with a trading volume of 784,875 lots. It significantly increased trading volume compared to the previous trading day. In the short - term, it broke through the 5 - day moving average near 3228, and the medium - term 30 - day moving average was at 3252 and the 60 - day moving average was at 3267. Affected by the sharp rise in the chemical industry, it continued the upward - biased trend [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,260 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot - futures basis was - 10 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous week, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons compared to the previous week, showing that post - holiday demand recovery fell short of expectations. In absolute terms, it was still at a medium - to - low level in the same period of history, and the weak reality pattern remained unchanged. The actual start - up of downstream manufacturing and automobile terminals still needed to be verified [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous week, indicating a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous week. The overall inventory was still increasing, and the inventory level in 2026 was higher than in previous years, with inventory pressure still existing [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not improved substantially, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating and Weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the hot - rolled coil futures decreased in positions and oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue this trend in the short term. The short - term support is near the previous low, and the medium - term pressure is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the hot - rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. However, the improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downward space. Future focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side production [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Thursday was 389,600 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 5,552 lots. The short - term average line fell below the 5 - day moving average of around 3,214, and the medium - term pressure of the 30 - day moving average at 3,256 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,269 still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 21 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 301.11 million tons, a decrease of 8.50 million tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous period, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 281.57 million tons, an increase of 13.20 million tons (+4.92%) compared to the previous period, showing a steady recovery in consumption [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous period, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.70 million tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous period, indicating inventory depletion in mills. The total inventory was 471.69 million tons, an increase of 14.68 million tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous period, showing that the overall inventory was still increasing [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, strengthening infrastructure and "two new" project support, and boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not seen substantial improvement, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - Bearish factors: slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]