【冠通期货研究报告】 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 791 手，成交量 277047 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3197 元，最高价 3220 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3215 元/吨， 下跌 8 元，跌幅 0.25%。 热卷日报：震荡整理 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3230 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 3，基差：期现基差 15 元。 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 ■偏多因素：供给收缩，需求韧性，政策托底（"十五五"规划、基建投资）， ■偏空因素：需求兑现慢，原料端拖累，库存累积压制价格，宏观扰动增加 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with inventory accumulation and weak demand pressuring short-term prices, but export profit improvement, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations providing bottom support and limiting the downside space [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 323 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 523,081 lots, showing increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,185 yuan, and the high was 3,242 yuan. It rebounded and rose sharply after a significant reduction in positions in the afternoon. In terms of the moving average, it briefly broke through the 5-day moving average in the short term, but there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term. It closed at 3,236 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan, a 1.19% increase [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The production of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly and remained stable. In the week of February 13, 2026, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.0776 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4] - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory shifted from de-stocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4] - **Inventory**: The stockpiling accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social end. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 787,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing a significant accumulation compared to before the festival. Although the absolute inventory level was still lower than the historical high, the stockpiling speed accelerated, and the market was cautious about the post-festival destocking rhythm [4] - **Policy**: There were internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated the sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and with the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in increased, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6] Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures rebounded sharply with a significant reduction in positions and increased volume in the afternoon, mainly due to the continuous rise in the stock market and the emission reduction control faced by some steel mills in the north with the approaching of the Two Sessions, leading short sellers to choose to leave the market and wait and see. In the short term, it broke through the 5-day moving average, and in the medium term, attention should still be paid to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautious. Fundamentally, the current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View of the Report The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" game. The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, improved export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downside space. The market as a whole maintains a weak oscillating trend [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures had an increase of 18,657 lots in open interest on Tuesday, with a trading volume of 373,301 lots, showing an increase in volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,181 yuan, and the high was 3,230 yuan. It closed at 3,195 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.87%. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages [1]. - The spot price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The basis between futures and spot was 35 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 3.0776 million tons in the week of February 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4]. - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory trend changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social side. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, an increase of 0.0212 million tons from the previous week; the steel mill inventory was 0.7875 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from the previous week; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing an obvious accumulation compared to before the festival [4]. - **Policy**: Domestically, as the "14th Five-Year Plan" is about to start and the Two Sessions are approaching, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in are rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival is unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan 6-month outright repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious and bullish rating on hot - rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures market is oscillating weakly, with supply relatively stable and demand showing strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level mainly because of high - level social inventory, and there is still inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 11,934 lots, and the trading volume was 283,875 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3255 yuan, the high was 3278 yuan, and the market was oscillating weakly. In the short - term, it fell below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving average lines, closing at 3263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.40% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 3 yuan [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 11.03 million tons year - on - year. The current output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintain a high production pace before the Spring Festival and production enthusiasm has increased [4] - **Demand**: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 5.87 million tons to 3.0554 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 8.11 million tons year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand of downstream manufacturing industries has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level in recent years and shows certain resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 3.592 million tons week - on - week (social inventory increased by 2.12 million tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 million tons). The pressure is concentrated in social inventory, and the steel mill inventory is controllable, indicating inventory backlog in the distribution link and insufficient willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The central economic meeting in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the 14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6] 4. Short - term View Summary - The hot - rolled coil futures decreased in volume today. Short - term pressure is near the 30 - day moving average, and the lower support is the previous low. Adopt a cautious and bullish approach. Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and although the demand has declined mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, it still shows strong resilience. The total inventory is at a high level mainly due to high social inventory pressure, and inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures showed a shrinking - volume oscillatory trend today. With the increase in the cost of raw materials (coking coal and coke), there is cost support in the short - term. The short - term pressure is around the 30 - day moving average, and the support below is at the previous low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed and the implementation rhythm of "two major" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday decreased compared to the previous trading day, with an increase of 5,482 in open interest and a trading volume of 285,185 lots. The intraday low was 3,266 yuan and the high was 3,285 yuan. It oscillated within the day, breaking below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages in the short - term, and closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the futures and the spot was - 4 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. The current output is at a medium - to - high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week - on - week, while the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week - on - week, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in the destocking stage [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products were introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the hot-rolled coil futures declined with reduced positions and trading volume, hitting a new low in the past 20 trading days. The daily line broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is expected to remain weak. The short-term pressure is around the 5-day moving average. Fundamentally, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is marginally supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely tracked: first, the inventory depletion speed. If the inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the price may continue to decline. Second, the implementation pace of "dual-focus" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support strength will determine the medium-term rebound space [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its position by 21,563 lots, with a trading volume of 335,114 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,257 yuan, and the high was 3,283 yuan. It declined with reduced positions during the day. From the daily moving average, it short-term broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.34% [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and futures prices is 5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a medium to high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand slightly increased this week and is at a relatively good level in the same period over the years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week-on-week, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in the process of destocking [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on steel export license management was introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, the demand is stable and resilient, and the overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The total inventory in social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally. In general, the tight balance of supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports prices. Although there was an overall decline with increased volume today, it was mainly due to market sentiment. The lower support is near this week's low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Friday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 17,466 lots, with a trading volume of 523,900 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,285 yuan, and the high was 3,325 yuan. There was a decline with reduced open interest during the day. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, closing at 3,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.30% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 2 yuan [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival, and production enthusiasm increased [4] - **Demand side**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - **Inventory side**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking channel [4] - **Policy side**: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Steel mill复产 in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on hot-rolled coils [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stocking is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on mill inventory is controllable, with the overall inventory risk improving marginally but still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious with low volatility due to the tug-of-war between macro loose expectations and pre-holiday weak demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 9,222 lots, with a trading volume of 283,776 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,290 yuan. It showed a weak intraday oscillation, breaking below the 5-day moving average in the short term and closing at 3,280 yuan/ton near the 30-day moving average, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.39% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, basically at par [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22nd, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [3] - **Demand**: As of January 22nd, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although demand declined slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stocking supported demand, indicating strong overall demand resilience [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 22nd, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, the total inventory increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The month-on-month decrease in total inventory alleviated inventory pressure marginally, while the year-on-year increase indicated that the inventory accumulation rate this year was slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk was controllable [3] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put downward pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro aspect, and listed in - depth rectification of involution - type competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for the current demand. The social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on the factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally, but the year-on-year inventory is still relatively high. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In general, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of the post-holiday demand recovery. Technically, in the short term, attention should be paid to the support near the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, and a bullish view should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 27,500 lots, and the trading volume was 391,114 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,298 yuan, the high was 3,320 yuan, and it fluctuated within the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages. If it holds steady, the probability of continued strengthening in the short and medium term is relatively high. It closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.12% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot-futures basis was -2 yuan, and the futures were slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decreased month-on-month and significantly year-on-year, reflecting that the capacity release of steel mills has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, supporting the price [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. The demand decreased slightly month-on-month but maintained growth year-on-year. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was relatively resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). The year-on-year increase was 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase reflected that the inventory accumulation speed this year was slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk was controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]