中小盘投资

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 科创、海外市场策略深度报告:科技龙头震荡蓄力,中小盘接力开启
 ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-10-15 08:54
 Core Insights - The report indicates that since September, the small-cap sectors represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have entered a period of consolidation, while technology-weighted stocks have seen strong gains. Recently, technology stocks have begun to adjust, which is viewed as a correction of strong stocks, characteristic of the later stage of market consolidation. As this period of fluctuation approaches its end, small-cap stocks are expected to stabilize first [1][3][4].   Trend Dimension - The current market is in a small-cap outperformance cycle, which began in 2022 with the rise of the AI industry. This cycle is expected to last 5-7 years, indicating a shift in market style driven by the transition between traditional and emerging industries [2][11].   Wave Dimension - From a wave perspective, small-cap stocks have significantly underperformed technology-weighted stocks since September. The CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 have lagged behind the STAR 50 and ChiNext 50 indices. As technology stocks enter a correction phase, small-cap stocks are anticipated to stabilize as the market moves towards the end of the consolidation period. Additionally, historical data suggests that small-cap stocks have a higher probability of outperforming the broader market in November, following the release of Q3 reports [3][15][23].   Industry Dimension - Potential directions for small-cap technology stocks during the October consolidation period include AI applications (both software and hardware), the expansion of domestic computing power, and the proliferation of innovative drugs. For AI applications, there are notable advancements in large models and vertical applications, while hardware applications are led by robotics and innovations such as autonomous driving and AI glasses. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring technological advancements and new product developments in these areas [4][25][26].   - The report also highlights that leading companies in AI chips, wafer manufacturing, storage, and semiconductor equipment have already seen gains, suggesting that there are opportunities for small-cap stocks to benefit from ongoing technological and market developments. In the innovative drug sector, if the upward trend in market conditions continues, small-cap stocks are expected to follow suit [25][26].
