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ETO Markets 出入金:英镑兑美元能否稳住涨势,还是将再度回落?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-11 09:51
| GMT | Event | Vol. | Actual | Consensus | Previous | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FRIDAY, OCT 10 | | | | | | n/a | USD CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions | | | | $-172.5K | | n/a | EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions | | | | €114.3K | | n/a | AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions | | | | $-59.6K | | | SATURDAY, OCT 11 | | | | | | 24h | EUR Spanish National Day | | | | | | | SUNDAY, OCT 12 | | | | | | 24h | JPY Health-Sports Day | | | | | | 21:30 | NZD Business NZ PSI | | | | 47.5 | | 21:45 | NZD Visitor Arrival ...
美联储“三把手”威廉姆斯:支持今年进一步降息,并不认为经济处于衰退边缘
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 10:39
美联储"三把手"、纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯明确表态,支持在今年内进一步下调利率,以应对劳 动力市场可能出现的急剧放缓风险。 周四,威廉姆斯表示:"劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他认为,如果经济如预期 发展——通胀率升至3%左右,失业率微升至当前4.3%以上——他将支持"今年降息"。 他还表示,并不认为美国经济处于衰退的边缘。通胀前景不像今年早些时候那么可怕。劳动力市场疲软 将有助于抑制通胀。 威廉姆斯的言论呼应了市场的普遍预期。联邦基金期货的定价显示,投资者预计美联储将在今年余下的 两次会议(10月和12月)中再次降息。今晚20:30,鲍威尔在美联储理事会主办的社区银行会议上有一 场开场录播讲话,届时可能将会释放有关美国经济的信号。 就业市场渐进降温引发政策调整考量 威廉姆斯详细阐述了美联储对当前就业市场状况的评估。他表示,过去一年来劳动力市场呈现渐进式降 温趋势,虽然失业率仅上升了几个十分之一个百分点,但职位空缺持续下降,离职率也降至较低水平。 "我们看到就业市场在过去一年中逐步降温,但这种降温并未引发对即将陷入衰退或急剧放缓的担 忧,"威廉姆斯说。他表示,9月份的最新指标显示,整体就 ...
日本央行加息掀起热潮 日元场外利率衍生品交易量飙升
智通财经网· 2025-09-30 13:45
投资者们预计未来几个月还会进一步加息,这使得日本市场交易活动愈发活跃。周二,日本2年期国债 收益率升至 2008 年以来的最高水平,此前该期限国债的拍卖因市场对加息的担忧加剧而遭遇需求疲软 的局面。 在日本央行 9 月的会议上,有两名政策委员会成员反对维持现有政策不变的决定,这使得人们更加猜测 该行即将迎来下一次加息。而且一位鸽派的日本央行委员会成员在周一的讲话中表示,调整政策利率的 必要性正在增加,同时他也强调了持续存在的海外风险。 自上一次国际清算银行的调查以来,日本的贸易格局已发生了变化,因为通胀再度出现,且日本央行结 束了数十年来将借贷成本维持在接近零水平的政策。央行的关键政策利率从 -0.1% 上调至 0.5%,而日 本政府债券(涵盖短期和长期)的收益率大幅上升,从而缩小了与其他主要市场之间的差距。 智通财经APP获悉,日元场外利率衍生品的交易量较三年前增长了近八倍,这是因为日本央行的货币紧 缩政策引发了交易热潮。据国际清算银行的三年度调查数据,4月份日均日元合约交易额升至 4110 亿美 元,较 2022 年水平增长了 684%。 国际清算银行的研究人员称这一趋势"令人瞩目"。日元已成为交易量第四 ...
瑞银资管唱反调:加息风险正逼近 2/10年期美债收益率利差或扩大至100个基点
智通财经网· 2025-09-19 06:44
Kevin Zhao补充称,美联储在今年年底前再降息两次是"合理的",在他看来,虽然下一任美联储主席可 能最初会抗拒转向货币政策紧缩,但如果更多政策制定者推动加息,降息的前景可能会被推翻。他表 示,一旦更广泛的市场意识到美联储需要加息,两年期与十年期美债收益率利差将扩大至100个基点, 从而带动整体收益率曲线趋陡。 过去几周,这两个期限的美债收益率利差已收窄至约50个基点。Kevin Zhao正等待其收窄至约40个基点 时,再启动一项从收益率曲线趋陡中获利的交易。数据显示,他管理的全球动态债券基金(Global Dynamic Bond Fund)今年以来回报率已超过7%,跑赢了89%的同类基金。 智通财经APP获悉,瑞银资产管理公司全球主权及货币主管Kevin Zhao表示,由于经济增长回升,美联 储明年将不得不转向加息,这将导致美债收益率利差大幅走阔。Kevin Zhao表示:"如果经济增长回 升、失业率下降、而通胀依然居高不下,那么到明年年中,美联储加息的理由将变得显而易见。" 这一大胆预测与市场普遍预期形成鲜明对比。美联储刚刚与当地时间周三进行了2025年以来的首次降 息,且最新的点阵图显示今年还将有 ...
中金:美联储不会因特朗普施压而降息
智通财经网· 2025-07-31 00:26
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in September aligns with market expectations, despite dissent from two board members who advocate for a rate cut due to signs of labor market weakness [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, as two board members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed a collective decision [2] - Powell and the majority of officials prefer to maintain a tightening stance, citing that the inflation effects from tariffs will gradually manifest over the coming months, impacting U.S. businesses and consumers [2][3] - Powell acknowledged that current monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, contributing to downward pressure on the labor market, but believes this is not sufficient to warrant a rate cut at this time [3] Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its independence, despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, emphasizing that monetary policy aims to achieve full employment and stable inflation, not to assist the government in reducing debt costs [3][5] - The structure of the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, which involves a committee of 12 voting members, ensures that even if Trump were to dismiss Powell, the overall direction of monetary policy would remain unchanged [5] Group 3: Future Outlook on Interest Rates - The company predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be prepared for a rate cut in the near term, with future decisions dependent on inflation trends [4] - It is anticipated that inflation may rise in the latter half of the year, driven primarily by tariffs rather than overheating economic demand, suggesting that the Fed may choose to wait for inflation peaks before implementing any easing measures [4] - Given the relatively loose fiscal policy environment, economic growth and inflation are expected to remain sticky, leading to a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy [4]
俄罗斯央行:经济继续回到平衡增长的道路上。货币政策长期将保持紧缩。国内需求增长正在放缓。
news flash· 2025-07-25 10:33
Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that the economy is continuing on the path to balanced growth, while maintaining a tight monetary policy in the long term. Domestic demand growth is showing signs of slowing down [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia emphasizes the ongoing recovery towards balanced economic growth [1] - Long-term monetary policy will remain tight to support economic stability [1] - There is a noticeable slowdown in domestic demand growth, which could impact future economic performance [1]
7月16日上期所沪银期货仓单较上一日减少10170千克
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-16 09:58
Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,212,789 kilograms, with a decrease of 10,170 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures opened at 9,195.00 CNY/kg, reached a high of 9,195.00 CNY/kg, and a low of 9,195.00 CNY/kg, closing at 9,152.00 CNY/kg, reflecting a daily decline of 0.35% [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicated that monetary policy needs to remain tight for some time to curb inflation, with core inflation expected to stay around 3% by year-end [2] - German bank analyst Vincent Stamer reported that France's ambitious plan to reduce fiscal deficit may lead to Prime Minister Borne's downfall due to a divided parliament [2] - The French government aims to cut approximately 44 billion euros in spending to reduce the fiscal deficit from over 5% this year to 4.6% next year, but these measures may face significant public opposition [2]
机构:日本央行加息时机仍然高度不确定
news flash· 2025-07-10 06:16
Core Viewpoint - The timing for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan remains highly uncertain according to Aviva Investors [1] Group 1 - Aviva Investors anticipates that the long end of the Japanese government bond yield curve will flatten [1] - The company suggests that the government may shift its issuance from long-term bonds to short-term bonds [1] - Despite a cautious tightening path in monetary policy, the specific timing for an interest rate increase is still highly uncertain [1]
翁富豪:6.21 美联储鹰派信号打压金价,3380能否成为转折点?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 16:38
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy signals, with interest rate cut expectations reduced from three to two by the end of 2025 [1] - Despite a slight recovery in the dollar index, the tightening monetary policy remains a significant bearish factor for gold prices [1] - Global trade tensions and ongoing Middle East conflicts are boosting safe-haven demand, providing support for gold prices and limiting further declines [1] Group 2 - The current bullish momentum in gold is evident, with clear resistance at the 3380-3385 range, while the price has not breached the upward channel, maintaining a complete medium to long-term upward structure [3] - The daily chart shows a doji candlestick pattern, with prices retracing to the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a continued oscillating downward trend [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold in the 3375-3380 range, with a stop loss at 3388 and a target of 3360-3340 [3]
英国央行:重申货币政策将需要继续保持紧缩状态,直到中期内通胀回归至2%的目标的风险进一步消除,确保这一目标具有持续性。
news flash· 2025-05-08 11:16
Group 1 - The Bank of England reaffirms that monetary policy will need to remain tight until the risks of inflation returning to the 2% target in the medium term are further eliminated, ensuring the sustainability of this target [1]