中日韩自贸协定

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迟福林:应对共同挑战,中日韩应加快签署自贸协定
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 00:22
Core Viewpoint - The signing of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is crucial for addressing common challenges and enhancing regional economic integration, which is a strategic choice in the context of changing global geopolitical and economic landscapes [1][2][3] Economic Cooperation and Trade Dynamics - China, Japan, and South Korea are at a critical juncture in their economic cooperation, with intra-regional trade declining from approximately $850 billion in 2021 to about $737 billion in 2024, a decrease of 13.5% [2] - The trade dependency ratio among the three countries has fallen from 19.4% to 16.5%, significantly lower than that of the EU (65.7%) and North America (40.1%) [2] Importance of FTA Negotiations - Accelerating FTA negotiations is seen as a wise move to avoid the agreement becoming irrelevant, similar to past experiences with the EU [3] - The combined GDP of China, Japan, and South Korea accounts for 24% of the global total, and their trade volume represents about 20% of global trade, contributing 70% of Asia's economic growth and 36% of global economic growth [3] Potential Economic Impact - The FTA could lead to a GDP increase of 0.3% to 1.1% for the three countries [4] - The service trade sector is becoming increasingly important, with the total service trade volume of the three countries exceeding $1.63 trillion, highlighting the need for cooperation in this area [5] Service Trade Opportunities - Digital services are among the fastest-growing sectors, with China's digital service exports reaching $366.6 billion in 2023, a 3.5% increase [6] - There is significant potential for cooperation in areas such as cross-border data processing, digital healthcare, and smart manufacturing services [7] Regional Economic Integration - The FTA is expected to play a leading role in upgrading the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) from its current 1.0 version to a higher level [9][10] - The RCEP is currently at a critical point of transition, with the service trade import and export volumes in the region showing substantial growth from 2011 to 2023 [10] Future Market Dynamics - By 2024, the combined economic scale of China, Japan, and South Korea is projected to reach $24.64 trillion, representing 22.13% of the global economy and 80.43% of the RCEP region [11] - The FTA could facilitate the establishment of high-level economic rules in areas such as digital economy and intellectual property, supporting the creation of a unified regional market [11]