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野村首席观点 | 陆挺:新老经济并重,要让消费敢为
野村集团· 2025-11-24 10:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic strategies and challenges facing China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development and structural reforms to achieve the goal of reaching the income levels of moderately developed countries [5][6][8]. Economic Development Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality development rather than specific growth targets, focusing on resolving historical issues, enhancing industrial self-reliance, and promoting inclusive growth [9][10]. - Key conditions for achieving the goal of reaching the income levels of moderately developed countries include increasing industrial added value, promoting inclusive growth, and improving social security systems [8][9]. Manufacturing and Export Growth - China's strong manufacturing sector has been crucial for the rapid growth of exports, with an average annual growth rate of 8% over the past five years, totaling a 45% increase [15]. - The export structure has significantly upgraded, with high-value-added products increasing, making China the world's largest producer and exporter of automobiles [15][16]. Consumption as a Growth Driver - Consumption is identified as a key variable for future economic growth, with government policies like subsidies expected to continue to stimulate consumer spending [11][12]. - Increasing pension income for urban and rural residents, especially low-income groups, is seen as a significant measure to boost consumption and support economic transformation [12][13]. Addressing "Involution" Phenomenon - The article highlights the need for a collaborative approach involving market forces, industry associations, and government guidance to address the "involution" phenomenon in the economy [14][17]. Financial Sector Development in Shenzhen - Shenzhen aims to become a globally influential financial center by leveraging its proximity to Hong Kong, its manufacturing base, and its innovative environment [18][19]. - The city is focusing on integrating financial services with local industries, providing comprehensive financing support, and exploring innovative financial models suitable for emerging industries [19][20].
21专访|陆挺:新老经济并重 要让消费敢为
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-13 15:16
Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development over specific growth targets, focusing on sustainable economic growth and social welfare [1][3][4] Economic Development Goals - The goal of achieving "per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries" requires three core conditions: enhancing industrial value-added, promoting inclusive growth, and improving social security systems [3][4][6] - The government aims to shift from low-value-added production to high-value-added products, necessitating improvements in production efficiency and innovation [3][4] High-Quality Development - High-quality development encompasses addressing historical issues in the economy, strengthening self-reliance in key industries, and ensuring inclusive growth [4][5] - Key sectors for support include real estate, semiconductor, and AI industries, with a focus on avoiding blind investments by local governments [4][5] Consumption as a Growth Driver - Consumption is identified as a critical variable for economic growth, with government policies like subsidies expected to continue to stimulate consumer spending [5][6] - Increasing pension income for urban and rural residents, particularly low-income groups, is seen as a significant measure to boost consumption and support economic balance [6] Export and Trade Dynamics - China's export growth averaged 8% over the past five years, driven by a robust manufacturing sector, with high-value products increasingly dominating the export landscape [7][8] - Future export growth is projected to slow to 2%-4% annually due to high base effects and external economic pressures [8] Addressing "Involution" - To tackle the issue of "involution," a collaborative approach involving market forces, industry associations, and government guidance is necessary [9][10] - The focus should be on market-driven efficiency, eliminating low-efficiency capacities, and establishing fair competition rules to promote sustainable industry development [9][10] Regional Financial Development - Shenzhen aims to become a globally influential financial center by leveraging its proximity to Hong Kong, integrating financial services with local industries, and fostering innovation in financial products [11][12] - The city's unique advantages include its young population and lack of traditional financial system constraints, which can facilitate the development of tailored financial solutions for emerging industries [12]