广东粤港澳大湾区研究院 . 以下文章来源于广东粤港澳大湾区研究院 ，作者李金萍 以大湾区和自贸区为主要研究对象，以"研究+论坛+传播"为核心业务，致力打造"开放式、国际化、创 新型"的一流高端智库 近日，野村在深圳举办第十七届中国投资年会。野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士接受《 21 世纪经济报 道》专访，以下为专篇报道。 本视频由《21世纪经济报道》和深圳金博会合作发布 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》） 全文公布。《建议》明确提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展指导方针，为做好未来五年经济社会发展工 作指明了前进方向。 陆挺： 要实现这一目标，中国需要完成的任务很多，具体来看，实现中等发达国家目标，中国需满足三大 核心条件。 一是提升产业附加值，必须通过提高生产效率、强化科研研发与自主创新，推动经济持续向 "高附 加值产品生产" 转型——若一直停留在低附加值产品领域，很难达到中等发达国家水平。 二是推进包容性增长，不能只看平均数据而忽视贫富差距，内需（尤其是消费内需）不稳定也难以 支撑持续增长，未来十年要在过往脱贫成就基础上，让更多人共享发展成果，才能实 ...

Group 1: Public Budget and Social Investment - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Beijing's social investment has consistently accounted for over 80% of the city's general public budget expenditures, with total financial investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1][5] - Specific allocations include 606.1 billion yuan for education, 570.2 billion yuan for social security and employment, 342.7 billion yuan for health care, and 92.7 billion yuan for housing security [1][5] - The city has seen improvements in public services, with preschool enrollment rates and coverage of inclusive kindergartens reaching 94% [1] Group 2: Employment and Entrepreneurship Support - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," Beijing has created an average of 278,000 new urban jobs annually, maintaining an average urban survey unemployment rate of 4.3% [2] - Policies have been implemented to support employment, including the development of over 100,000 job postings annually for graduates and the establishment of a comprehensive support system for entrepreneurship [3] - A total of 76.9 million job seekers have been assisted, and 67.4 million rural laborers have achieved employment insurance [2][3] Group 3: Social Security and Pension Reforms - The basic pension for retirees and urban residents has increased by over 25% during the past five years, with a total of over 200 billion yuan allocated for pension services [6] - The minimum wage has been adjusted from 2,200 yuan to 2,540 yuan, reflecting a 15.5% increase [3] - The city has established a multi-pillar pension insurance system, with 7.716 million personal pension accounts opened and a total contribution of 22.31 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Healthcare and Medical Insurance - Beijing's basic medical insurance covers over 95% of the population, with a stable balance of income and expenditure in the insurance fund [10] - The number of drugs covered by the medical insurance directory has increased from 2,800 to 3,159, with significant adjustments made to medical service prices [11] - The city has improved the convenience of medical services, with 5,481 designated medical institutions and enhanced online and offline service systems [11] Group 5: Child and Elderly Care Services - Over 300 billion yuan has been invested in social assistance, child welfare, and disability services, with the minimum living standard for low-income households increasing from 1,245 yuan to 1,480 yuan per month [7] - The city has implemented a childcare subsidy policy with a total allocation of 1.01 billion yuan, significantly reducing the cost of inclusive childcare services [6] - A network of 122 regional elderly care service centers has been established to provide accessible and professional services to the elderly [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its transition between old and new growth drivers, particularly in the context of **technology innovation** and **economic policies** post the Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Policy Outlook**: The upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan** will emphasize technology independence and innovation, with a detailed proposal expected by late October 2025. The plan will outline mid-term goals including GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization rates, carbon emissions, and social welfare improvements [13][20][60]. 2. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around **5%**, with fiscal policies remaining similar to the previous year, contingent on external demand [13][20]. 3. **Social Welfare Reforms**: Social security reforms are deemed crucial for economic rebalancing, with expectations for gradual improvements in social welfare spending to enhance consumption [45][47][50]. 4. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is undergoing a significant adjustment, with new construction activity stabilizing but price adjustments remaining uncertain. The report indicates that the inventory reduction in first- and second-tier cities will require approximately **3 trillion RMB** in funding [53][56][57]. 5. **Investment in Technology**: The Chinese government is increasing its budget for scientific and technological expenditures to **1.2 trillion RMB**, a **8.3%** increase year-on-year, to support innovation and technology-driven industries [21][22]. 6. **AI and Robotics Market Growth**: The humanoid robot market is expected to reach a cumulative application scale of **1 billion units** by 2050, with about **30%** of this demand coming from China [29][33]. 7. **Autonomous Driving Market**: The autonomous vehicle market is projected to grow to **200 billion USD** by 2030, with significant advancements expected in smart driving technologies [35][36]. 8. **Challenges in Technology Development**: There are still significant technological barriers in various sectors, including AI, robotics, and biotechnology, which need to be addressed to enhance competitiveness [37][38]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of AI on Employment**: The report discusses the dual impact of AI on the labor market, highlighting that while AI can enhance productivity in high-complementarity jobs, it poses a risk of complete replacement in low-complementarity roles [40][41][43]. 2. **Fiscal Stimulus Measures**: A fiscal stimulus package of **10 trillion RMB** is anticipated to be rolled out over the next two years, focusing on consumption and social welfare improvements [59][60]. 3. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for economic recovery, including structural reforms, increased social spending, and measures to boost consumer confidence [58][59]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the implications for various sectors, particularly technology and real estate.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook under the changing dynamics between China and the United States, particularly in the context of the Asia Pacific region [2][3]. Core Economic Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for the year is expected to reach 4.8%, with a decline in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7][8]. - The persistent issue of deflation remains a significant challenge, with nominal GDP weakening affecting wage growth [17][18]. - The fiscal impulse has weakened since August, leading to a rapid decline in infrastructure investment [11][12]. Investment and Consumption Trends - Infrastructure investment growth rates have shown a downward trend across various sectors, including utilities and transportation [13]. - Consumer sentiment has deteriorated, with a notable increase in youth unemployment rates [22][24]. - Retail sales, excluding old-for-new products, have shown a significant decline, particularly in housing-related consumption and automobiles [19]. Export Performance - China's export performance has exceeded expectations, benefiting from supply chain advantages, despite a noticeable decline in exports to the U.S. [26][27]. - Exports to non-U.S. regions have remained strong, indicating resilience in the face of trade tensions [26]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - Recent developments include China's expansion of rare earth controls and the U.S. threatening to impose 100% tariffs [30][31]. - Ongoing bilateral consultations are noted, with both sides expressing the need to avoid new restrictive measures [31][32]. - The potential scenarios for U.S.-China relations range from tactical escalations to long-term economic decoupling [34][36]. Rare Earth and Technology Controls - The tightening of rare earth controls by China may accelerate the global shift away from reliance on Chinese supplies [41]. - The U.S. has intensified technology controls, particularly in the semiconductor sector, where China's self-sufficiency remains low [46]. Structural Economic Challenges - The high savings rate in China reflects deep-seated structural imbalances in the economy, with a significant portion of savings concentrated in bank deposits [83][85]. - The report emphasizes the need for consumption to rebalance the economy, with social security reforms being crucial for increasing consumption's share in GDP [66][63]. Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive fiscal stimulus plan of approximately 10 trillion RMB is proposed to boost consumption and support economic recovery [51]. - Structural reforms are necessary to address the systemic tendencies of overcapacity and improve resource allocation efficiency [108]. Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate sector is still in a phase of adjustment, with new construction activity having largely completed its quantitative adjustments, while price adjustments remain uncertain [78]. - The report suggests that real estate inventory reduction will serve social welfare rather than solely support real estate companies [80]. Conclusion - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with significant challenges posed by deflation, structural imbalances, and geopolitical tensions. The emphasis on reforms and fiscal measures is critical for stabilizing and stimulating the economy moving forward [7][66][51].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic situation in China post the Fourth Plenary Session, highlighting challenges such as persistent deflation and a weakening fiscal impulse affecting infrastructure investment [5][9][13]. Core Economic Insights - **GDP Growth**: The actual GDP growth rate for the year is expected to reach 4.8%, with a decline anticipated in the second half of the year [5]. - **Deflation**: The economy is struggling with persistent deflation, with nominal GDP growth weakening, which in turn affects wage growth [13][14]. - **Fiscal Pulse**: Since August, the fiscal pulse has weakened, leading to a rapid decline in infrastructure investment [9]. Investment and Consumption Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable decline in retail sales growth, particularly in housing-related consumption and automobiles, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [15]. - **High Savings Rate**: China's high savings rate reflects deep structural imbalances in the economy, with excess savings estimated at around 30 trillion RMB [52][54]. Policy Measures and Economic Reforms - **Fiscal Stimulus**: A fiscal stimulus plan of 10 trillion RMB is expected to be introduced over the next two years, focusing on consumption [23]. - **Social Welfare Improvements**: Initiatives include national birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at improving social welfare and boosting consumption [26][36]. - **Rebalancing the Economy**: The report emphasizes the need for the economy to rebalance towards consumption, with social security reform being a key component [33][36]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - **Real Estate Adjustments**: The real estate sector is still in a phase of adjustment, with new construction volume stabilizing but price adjustments remaining unclear [47]. - **Inventory Management**: It is estimated that around 3 trillion RMB will be needed to reduce new housing inventory to healthy levels [50]. Technological Advancements and Future Outlook - **AI and Innovation**: The report highlights the potential of AI and emerging technologies to drive investment and economic growth, with significant government support for tech innovation [94][99]. - **Long-term Projections**: By 2050, the cumulative application scale of humanoid robots is projected to reach 1 billion units, with approximately 30% expected to come from China [112]. Additional Insights - **Youth Unemployment**: The youth unemployment rate remains high, reflecting broader economic pressures and challenges in the labor market [18][20]. - **Structural Challenges**: The report notes that the social security system in China is still inadequate, with significant disparities between urban and rural areas [40][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding China's economic landscape, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investment and growth.

Group 1 - The Fourth Plenary Session reaffirmed the dominant role of technology while signaling a slow economic rebalancing, with low likelihood of unexpected policy announcements [2][4] - The 14th Five-Year Plan suggestions will provide more guidance but will still lack specific numerical targets, focusing on supply-side policies and gradual improvements to the social security system [2][5] - The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with similar fiscal efforts as this year, while real estate measures will progress slowly [2][9] Group 2 - The Fourth Plenary Session will release two important documents regarding the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the first being a general communiqué outlining key tasks for the period from 2026 to 2030 [4] - The subsequent detailed suggestions will explore specific policy areas, including technology and industry policies, domestic demand, environmental protection, and social welfare [5][6] - The gradual rebalancing of the economy is anticipated, with public feedback on living standards acting as a catalyst for this process [8] Group 3 - The performance of the "Golden Week" holiday showed a modest increase in tourism and retail sales, with daily spending per capita declining, indicating potential overestimation of actual demand growth [13] - Retail sales growth for major retail and catering enterprises was 2.7%, lower than the previous month's 3.4% [13] - Despite weak demand, revenue per available room in the hotel industry showed low single-digit growth, suggesting reduced price elasticity of demand [13]

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session will release two important documents regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan, with the first public announcement on October 23 and a more detailed proposal on October 27[3] - The public announcement is expected to outline key tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on economic growth, structural reforms, social governance, ecological protection, and improving people's livelihoods[3] - The policy tone is anticipated to be balanced, with a low likelihood of significant surprises for the market[8] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December will set the growth target for 2026, likely maintaining a target around 5% to balance short-term employment stability and long-term GDP growth goals[13] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will include specific quantitative targets for GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization rate, carbon emissions, and social welfare, to be announced in March 2026[11] - The overall economic strategy will continue to emphasize supply-side reforms while gradually improving the social security system[8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - During the "Golden Week" holiday, daily travel and total spending increased by 1.6% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a 13% decline in per capita daily spending[12] - Retail sales for key retail and catering enterprises grew by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3.4% growth rate in August[14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the high household savings rate and low consumption levels, which are indicative of economic imbalance [1][8][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **High Household Savings Rate**: China's household savings rate stands at 35%, significantly higher than other major economies, reflecting structural issues in social security and economic uncertainties since 2018 [2][30]. 2. **Excess Savings Accumulation**: Over the past seven years, households have accumulated approximately 30 trillion RMB in excess savings, with 6-7 trillion RMB allocated to fixed deposits [2][12][37]. 3. **Need for Social Security Reform**: The report emphasizes that social security reform is crucial for releasing excess savings and achieving economic rebalancing, which is necessary to address the challenges of debt and deflation [8][21][30]. 4. **Three-Step Approach to Release Excess Savings**: - **Step 1**: Restore consumer confidence and risk appetite, particularly among high-income groups, to facilitate the transition of excess fixed deposits into equity markets [20][24]. - **Step 2**: Stabilize inflation expectations over the next 6-8 years to convert excess savings into consumption, which will further stimulate economic growth [20][26]. - **Step 3**: Implement comprehensive social security reforms to systematically lower the household savings rate [21][25]. 5. **Projected Economic Impact**: If reforms are effectively implemented, it is estimated that the release of excess savings could increase annual consumption growth by 1-1.4 percentage points over the next five years, potentially raising the consumption-to-GDP ratio by 1.3-1.6 percentage points by 2030 [3][26]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Structural Issues in Social Security**: The current social security system is fragmented and inadequate, leading to increased precautionary savings among households [9][30]. 2. **Impact of Economic Shocks**: Economic shocks since 2018, including trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, have heightened the need for precautionary savings, further entrenching the high savings rate [10][35]. 3. **Potential for Consumption Growth**: Despite the high savings rate, there is significant potential for consumption growth if excess savings can be effectively mobilized [8][30]. 4. **International Comparisons**: The report draws parallels with Japan and the U.S. regarding how to manage excess savings and restore consumer confidence, highlighting the importance of timely policy responses [19][51]. Conclusion - The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for addressing the high savings rate in China through social security reform and economic policy adjustments, emphasizing the potential for increased consumption and economic rebalancing if these measures are successfully implemented [26][30].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant advancements in employment and social security in China, with a focus on high-quality completion of the plan [2] Employment Policies - China has implemented a series of employment support policies during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with total employment assistance funds exceeding 470 billion yuan and stable employment for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [2] - A total of 1.389 billion yuan has been allocated for job retention subsidies, contributing to overall employment stability [2] - Approximately 92 million people have received subsidized vocational skills training, with the total number of skilled workers exceeding 220 million [2] Social Security Reforms - The social security system has been significantly reformed, establishing a system with distinct Chinese characteristics [2] - Basic pension insurance for enterprise employees has achieved national coordination, while unemployment and work injury insurance have been coordinated at the provincial level [2] - The personal pension system has been rolled out nationwide, and pilot programs for occupational injury protection have expanded to 17 provinces, covering over 20 million new employment form workers [2] Insurance Participation and Fund Scale - The number of participants in basic pension insurance has reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] - The number of participants in unemployment and work injury insurance has increased by over 29 million and 34 million, respectively, compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The total scale of the three social insurance funds' income and expenditure has reached 69.27 trillion yuan, with a cumulative surplus of 9.81 trillion yuan [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, government stimulus plans, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global asset prices and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Potential Government Stimulus**: The Chinese government is expected to introduce a supplementary stimulus plan ranging from 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB to address economic downturns, with implementation anticipated by late September or October [3][5][24]. 2. **Focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan**: The plan will emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, promoting high-quality development, enhancing the national unified market, and advancing new productive forces to combat deflation and achieve a virtuous economic cycle [5][24]. 3. **Real Estate Market Intervention**: The central government may intervene by purchasing unsold residential properties to convert them into affordable housing, which would help clear inventory and improve living conditions for urban workers [7][11]. 4. **Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected to increase global liquidity, raise asset prices, and potentially alter capital flows, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation strategies by investors [8][14]. 5. **Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The market for Chinese innovative drugs abroad, particularly in Hong Kong, shows significant potential, although current valuations and growth prospects require careful assessment [9][40]. 6. **Social Security Reform**: Enhancing social security and increasing state-owned enterprise dividend payouts are seen as crucial for improving consumer sentiment and stimulating domestic demand [5][13][24]. 7. **Stock Market Recovery**: The Chinese stock market is showing signs of stabilization and improvement, with a positive impact on earnings expectations, which is crucial for sustainable market performance [26][36]. 8. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: High household savings rates in China, driven by inadequate social security, could be reduced through comprehensive reforms, potentially releasing significant consumer spending power [16][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation Expectations**: There has been limited progress in restoring inflation expectations, with concerns about overcapacity in certain sectors and insufficient demand-side stimulus [22][24]. 2. **Global Chemical Industry Dynamics**: The chemical sector is experiencing changes due to anti-involution policies, which may affect global supply-demand relationships and pricing [42][44]. 3. **Investment Opportunities in Chemicals**: The chemical industry has seen a 10% average increase in stock prices since the introduction of anti-involution policies, indicating potential investment opportunities [49]. 4. **Long-term Economic Reforms**: The success of the 15th Five-Year Plan in implementing social security and fiscal reforms could lead to a gradual exit from deflation starting in 2027 [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the anticipated government actions, market dynamics, and broader economic implications.