记者丨崔文静 编辑丨张星 2025年，凭借独特的产业链、工程师红利与超大规模市场优势，中国正为前沿科技引领全球 竞争蓄势。与此同时，为了有效应对价格低位运行等内在压力，国内宏观政策重心正朝着更 加注重民生保障、人力资本与内需驱动的方向深化调整。如何协同推动科技自立自强与民生 福祉提升，已成为观察中国经济的重要议题。 近日，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时指出， 中国经 济的未来在于实现"星辰大海"式创新与"柴米油盐"民生改善的"双向奔赴"。 他强调，这不仅 需发挥中国在产业链、工程师红利与超大规模市场的既有优势，更依赖于推动一场深刻的财 政资源再配置——从侧重"投资于物"（基建与产能）更多转向"投资于人"（社保与公共服 务）。 邢自强分析，自2024年9月以来，资本市场信心修复源于政策、企业、资金面的三重"觉醒"。 然而，要将市场回暖转化为可持续的"制度牛"，关键在于"十五五"期间能否在夯实全国统一大 市场与深化社保改革上取得清晰进展。这既是打破"内卷"、释放消费潜力的治本之策，也为 科技创新提供了可持续的内需基础。 因此，"柴米油盐"层面的民生改善与内需提振，具有同等重要的战 ...

今年9月，国家医保局印发《长期护理保险护理服务机构定点管理办法（试行）》，进一步明确长护服务机构定点管理的具体要求。 社保第六险—长期护理险再次走进大家的视野。 可是很多人对长期护理险仍然没有一个明确的认知，甚至部分人群都不知道自己已经开始缴纳长期护理险了。 所以今天小编就来系统的给大家讲讲长期护理险，文章内容包括： 大家可以划到自己的感兴趣的地方查看～ 01 2026年1月1日起，又一地区正式执行长期护理险 1.海南 11月18日，海南省人民政府办公厅关于印发《海南省建立长期护理保险制度实施方案》的通知（以下简称《通知》），自2026年1月1日起开始实施。 小编梳理了《办法》中的重点内容，给大家简单阐述： 哪些地区开始执行长期护理险了？缴费标准是什么？ 长期护理险到底是什么？ 如何才能享受长期护理险？ 一、哪些人要缴长期护理险？ 统一覆盖用人单位（包括企业、事业单位、机关、社会组织）及其单位职工、退休人员、参加职工基本医疗保险的灵活就业人员等和参加城乡居民基本医 疗保险的灵活就业人员、非就业城乡居民。 二、长期护理险要缴多少钱？ 职工：①用人单位的缴费费率为0.3％，费率由单位和个人同比例分担，即各为0.1 ...

特朗普重返白宫后，迅速展开了一系列变化，给人一种忙于改变一切的感觉。他一上台就推出多个改革措施，似乎是在急于抹去前任的痕迹。民主党人士认 为，这不仅仅是政策上的调整，更像是直指他们而来。两周内，奥巴马、拜登和克林顿等前总统接连发表公开言论，矛头直指特朗普。前总统们集体发声的 场面，在美国历史上极为罕见。民主党内部早已呼吁这些前总统站出来发声。整个局势要从特朗普上任后说起。 1月末，特朗普开始调整内阁，提名了几位备受争议的人物。民主党在国会中拖延确认，引发了激烈的争议和冲突。到了2月，特朗普团队开始讨论社保改 革，提出削减开支的计划。民主党认为这触及了美国的根本利益，因此他们开始酝酿反击。在媒体上，评论员们纷纷表示，为什么这些前总统还没有站出来 发声？克林顿、奥巴马、拜登和布什一开始都没有表态，民主党支持者对此感到焦急，认为他们应该带头反对特朗普的政策。 到了3月，局势愈加紧张，特朗普公开施压法院，企图绕过一些司法程序。民主党认为这种做法威胁到了宪法和民主制度，而特朗普的支持者则认为这是民 主党在找借口。在4月，局势发生了变化，奥巴马率先打破沉默。4月4日，他在一次公开讲话中指出，特朗普的风格有些像是在霸凌他人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic strategies and challenges facing China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development and structural reforms to achieve the goal of reaching the income levels of moderately developed countries [5][6][8]. Economic Development Strategies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for high-quality development rather than specific growth targets, focusing on resolving historical issues, enhancing industrial self-reliance, and promoting inclusive growth [9][10]. - Key conditions for achieving the goal of reaching the income levels of moderately developed countries include increasing industrial added value, promoting inclusive growth, and improving social security systems [8][9]. Manufacturing and Export Growth - China's strong manufacturing sector has been crucial for the rapid growth of exports, with an average annual growth rate of 8% over the past five years, totaling a 45% increase [15]. - The export structure has significantly upgraded, with high-value-added products increasing, making China the world's largest producer and exporter of automobiles [15][16]. Consumption as a Growth Driver - Consumption is identified as a key variable for future economic growth, with government policies like subsidies expected to continue to stimulate consumer spending [11][12]. - Increasing pension income for urban and rural residents, especially low-income groups, is seen as a significant measure to boost consumption and support economic transformation [12][13]. Addressing "Involution" Phenomenon - The article highlights the need for a collaborative approach involving market forces, industry associations, and government guidance to address the "involution" phenomenon in the economy [14][17]. Financial Sector Development in Shenzhen - Shenzhen aims to become a globally influential financial center by leveraging its proximity to Hong Kong, its manufacturing base, and its innovative environment [18][19]. - The city is focusing on integrating financial services with local industries, providing comprehensive financing support, and exploring innovative financial models suitable for emerging industries [19][20].

Group 1: Public Budget and Social Investment - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Beijing's social investment has consistently accounted for over 80% of the city's general public budget expenditures, with total financial investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1][5] - Specific allocations include 606.1 billion yuan for education, 570.2 billion yuan for social security and employment, 342.7 billion yuan for health care, and 92.7 billion yuan for housing security [1][5] - The city has seen improvements in public services, with preschool enrollment rates and coverage of inclusive kindergartens reaching 94% [1] Group 2: Employment and Entrepreneurship Support - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," Beijing has created an average of 278,000 new urban jobs annually, maintaining an average urban survey unemployment rate of 4.3% [2] - Policies have been implemented to support employment, including the development of over 100,000 job postings annually for graduates and the establishment of a comprehensive support system for entrepreneurship [3] - A total of 76.9 million job seekers have been assisted, and 67.4 million rural laborers have achieved employment insurance [2][3] Group 3: Social Security and Pension Reforms - The basic pension for retirees and urban residents has increased by over 25% during the past five years, with a total of over 200 billion yuan allocated for pension services [6] - The minimum wage has been adjusted from 2,200 yuan to 2,540 yuan, reflecting a 15.5% increase [3] - The city has established a multi-pillar pension insurance system, with 7.716 million personal pension accounts opened and a total contribution of 22.31 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Healthcare and Medical Insurance - Beijing's basic medical insurance covers over 95% of the population, with a stable balance of income and expenditure in the insurance fund [10] - The number of drugs covered by the medical insurance directory has increased from 2,800 to 3,159, with significant adjustments made to medical service prices [11] - The city has improved the convenience of medical services, with 5,481 designated medical institutions and enhanced online and offline service systems [11] Group 5: Child and Elderly Care Services - Over 300 billion yuan has been invested in social assistance, child welfare, and disability services, with the minimum living standard for low-income households increasing from 1,245 yuan to 1,480 yuan per month [7] - The city has implemented a childcare subsidy policy with a total allocation of 1.01 billion yuan, significantly reducing the cost of inclusive childcare services [6] - A network of 122 regional elderly care service centers has been established to provide accessible and professional services to the elderly [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its transition between old and new growth drivers, particularly in the context of **technology innovation** and **economic policies** post the Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Policy Outlook**: The upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan** will emphasize technology independence and innovation, with a detailed proposal expected by late October 2025. The plan will outline mid-term goals including GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization rates, carbon emissions, and social welfare improvements [13][20][60]. 2. **GDP Growth Forecast**: The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around **5%**, with fiscal policies remaining similar to the previous year, contingent on external demand [13][20]. 3. **Social Welfare Reforms**: Social security reforms are deemed crucial for economic rebalancing, with expectations for gradual improvements in social welfare spending to enhance consumption [45][47][50]. 4. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is undergoing a significant adjustment, with new construction activity stabilizing but price adjustments remaining uncertain. The report indicates that the inventory reduction in first- and second-tier cities will require approximately **3 trillion RMB** in funding [53][56][57]. 5. **Investment in Technology**: The Chinese government is increasing its budget for scientific and technological expenditures to **1.2 trillion RMB**, a **8.3%** increase year-on-year, to support innovation and technology-driven industries [21][22]. 6. **AI and Robotics Market Growth**: The humanoid robot market is expected to reach a cumulative application scale of **1 billion units** by 2050, with about **30%** of this demand coming from China [29][33]. 7. **Autonomous Driving Market**: The autonomous vehicle market is projected to grow to **200 billion USD** by 2030, with significant advancements expected in smart driving technologies [35][36]. 8. **Challenges in Technology Development**: There are still significant technological barriers in various sectors, including AI, robotics, and biotechnology, which need to be addressed to enhance competitiveness [37][38]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of AI on Employment**: The report discusses the dual impact of AI on the labor market, highlighting that while AI can enhance productivity in high-complementarity jobs, it poses a risk of complete replacement in low-complementarity roles [40][41][43]. 2. **Fiscal Stimulus Measures**: A fiscal stimulus package of **10 trillion RMB** is anticipated to be rolled out over the next two years, focusing on consumption and social welfare improvements [59][60]. 3. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The report outlines a comprehensive strategy for economic recovery, including structural reforms, increased social spending, and measures to boost consumer confidence [58][59]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese economy, its policy direction, and the implications for various sectors, particularly technology and real estate.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook under the changing dynamics between China and the United States, particularly in the context of the Asia Pacific region [2][3]. Core Economic Insights - The actual GDP growth rate for the year is expected to reach 4.8%, with a decline in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7][8]. - The persistent issue of deflation remains a significant challenge, with nominal GDP weakening affecting wage growth [17][18]. - The fiscal impulse has weakened since August, leading to a rapid decline in infrastructure investment [11][12]. Investment and Consumption Trends - Infrastructure investment growth rates have shown a downward trend across various sectors, including utilities and transportation [13]. - Consumer sentiment has deteriorated, with a notable increase in youth unemployment rates [22][24]. - Retail sales, excluding old-for-new products, have shown a significant decline, particularly in housing-related consumption and automobiles [19]. Export Performance - China's export performance has exceeded expectations, benefiting from supply chain advantages, despite a noticeable decline in exports to the U.S. [26][27]. - Exports to non-U.S. regions have remained strong, indicating resilience in the face of trade tensions [26]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - Recent developments include China's expansion of rare earth controls and the U.S. threatening to impose 100% tariffs [30][31]. - Ongoing bilateral consultations are noted, with both sides expressing the need to avoid new restrictive measures [31][32]. - The potential scenarios for U.S.-China relations range from tactical escalations to long-term economic decoupling [34][36]. Rare Earth and Technology Controls - The tightening of rare earth controls by China may accelerate the global shift away from reliance on Chinese supplies [41]. - The U.S. has intensified technology controls, particularly in the semiconductor sector, where China's self-sufficiency remains low [46]. Structural Economic Challenges - The high savings rate in China reflects deep-seated structural imbalances in the economy, with a significant portion of savings concentrated in bank deposits [83][85]. - The report emphasizes the need for consumption to rebalance the economy, with social security reforms being crucial for increasing consumption's share in GDP [66][63]. Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive fiscal stimulus plan of approximately 10 trillion RMB is proposed to boost consumption and support economic recovery [51]. - Structural reforms are necessary to address the systemic tendencies of overcapacity and improve resource allocation efficiency [108]. Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate sector is still in a phase of adjustment, with new construction activity having largely completed its quantitative adjustments, while price adjustments remain uncertain [78]. - The report suggests that real estate inventory reduction will serve social welfare rather than solely support real estate companies [80]. Conclusion - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with significant challenges posed by deflation, structural imbalances, and geopolitical tensions. The emphasis on reforms and fiscal measures is critical for stabilizing and stimulating the economy moving forward [7][66][51].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic situation in China post the Fourth Plenary Session, highlighting challenges such as persistent deflation and a weakening fiscal impulse affecting infrastructure investment [5][9][13]. Core Economic Insights - **GDP Growth**: The actual GDP growth rate for the year is expected to reach 4.8%, with a decline anticipated in the second half of the year [5]. - **Deflation**: The economy is struggling with persistent deflation, with nominal GDP growth weakening, which in turn affects wage growth [13][14]. - **Fiscal Pulse**: Since August, the fiscal pulse has weakened, leading to a rapid decline in infrastructure investment [9]. Investment and Consumption Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable decline in retail sales growth, particularly in housing-related consumption and automobiles, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [15]. - **High Savings Rate**: China's high savings rate reflects deep structural imbalances in the economy, with excess savings estimated at around 30 trillion RMB [52][54]. Policy Measures and Economic Reforms - **Fiscal Stimulus**: A fiscal stimulus plan of 10 trillion RMB is expected to be introduced over the next two years, focusing on consumption [23]. - **Social Welfare Improvements**: Initiatives include national birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at improving social welfare and boosting consumption [26][36]. - **Rebalancing the Economy**: The report emphasizes the need for the economy to rebalance towards consumption, with social security reform being a key component [33][36]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - **Real Estate Adjustments**: The real estate sector is still in a phase of adjustment, with new construction volume stabilizing but price adjustments remaining unclear [47]. - **Inventory Management**: It is estimated that around 3 trillion RMB will be needed to reduce new housing inventory to healthy levels [50]. Technological Advancements and Future Outlook - **AI and Innovation**: The report highlights the potential of AI and emerging technologies to drive investment and economic growth, with significant government support for tech innovation [94][99]. - **Long-term Projections**: By 2050, the cumulative application scale of humanoid robots is projected to reach 1 billion units, with approximately 30% expected to come from China [112]. Additional Insights - **Youth Unemployment**: The youth unemployment rate remains high, reflecting broader economic pressures and challenges in the labor market [18][20]. - **Structural Challenges**: The report notes that the social security system in China is still inadequate, with significant disparities between urban and rural areas [40][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding China's economic landscape, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investment and growth.

Group 1 - The Fourth Plenary Session reaffirmed the dominant role of technology while signaling a slow economic rebalancing, with low likelihood of unexpected policy announcements [2][4] - The 14th Five-Year Plan suggestions will provide more guidance but will still lack specific numerical targets, focusing on supply-side policies and gradual improvements to the social security system [2][5] - The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with similar fiscal efforts as this year, while real estate measures will progress slowly [2][9] Group 2 - The Fourth Plenary Session will release two important documents regarding the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the first being a general communiqué outlining key tasks for the period from 2026 to 2030 [4] - The subsequent detailed suggestions will explore specific policy areas, including technology and industry policies, domestic demand, environmental protection, and social welfare [5][6] - The gradual rebalancing of the economy is anticipated, with public feedback on living standards acting as a catalyst for this process [8] Group 3 - The performance of the "Golden Week" holiday showed a modest increase in tourism and retail sales, with daily spending per capita declining, indicating potential overestimation of actual demand growth [13] - Retail sales growth for major retail and catering enterprises was 2.7%, lower than the previous month's 3.4% [13] - Despite weak demand, revenue per available room in the hotel industry showed low single-digit growth, suggesting reduced price elasticity of demand [13]

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session will release two important documents regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan, with the first public announcement on October 23 and a more detailed proposal on October 27[3] - The public announcement is expected to outline key tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), focusing on economic growth, structural reforms, social governance, ecological protection, and improving people's livelihoods[3] - The policy tone is anticipated to be balanced, with a low likelihood of significant surprises for the market[8] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December will set the growth target for 2026, likely maintaining a target around 5% to balance short-term employment stability and long-term GDP growth goals[13] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will include specific quantitative targets for GDP growth, R&D intensity, urbanization rate, carbon emissions, and social welfare, to be announced in March 2026[11] - The overall economic strategy will continue to emphasize supply-side reforms while gradually improving the social security system[8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - During the "Golden Week" holiday, daily travel and total spending increased by 1.6% and 1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a 13% decline in per capita daily spending[12] - Retail sales for key retail and catering enterprises grew by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3.4% growth rate in August[14]