在整个有色大板块里面稀土的占比可能并没有黄金和工业金属那么大，但它在今年的涨幅相对来说是非 常突出的。这里面有很多重要因素的催化，比如说供给端的出口管制。从需求端来看，我们看到下游行 业，比如像新能源等等的需求景气度相对来说比较高，共同驱动了稀土的价格在今年明显上涨。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 从稀土的价格角度上来讲，今年从供给端比较大的影响因素就是我们的出口管制，尤其是10月份我们对 于稀土环节也是出台了更加严厉的管控。除此之外，今年稀土供给端还有比较大的变化就是缅甸国内的 一些突发情况。 当然从需求侧来讲，短期我们能够看到出口的许可证制度相对来说还是在正常运作，并没有说短期的出 口管制使得需求出现了比较明显的下滑。反而可能会出现一些海外补库的需求。短期来讲的话，从下游 的细分方向上来看，像新能源特别是新能源车、风电等等，在四季度还是生产的旺季。所以从供需两端 来看，中期我 ...

Group 1 - Stephen Roach, a prominent economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, has revised his earlier pessimistic view on Hong Kong's economic prospects amid US-China tensions, stating that Hong Kong is benefiting from its unique position as a bridge between mainland China and international financial markets [1][3] - Roach previously claimed in February 2024 that "Hong Kong is finished," but now believes that the city is thriving due to its "Chinese characteristics" and its critical role in connecting with international finance [3] - He noted that Hong Kong's financial success is increasingly dependent on its ties with the mainland and the impact of US pressures leading to a near-complete financial decoupling between the US and China, suggesting that Hong Kong stands to gain from this situation [3] Group 2 - Roach mentioned that recent US policies, such as the cancellation of Chinese student visas and criticism of elite institutions like Harvard, could encourage talent to flow into Hong Kong [3] - The importance of Hong Kong as a "super connector" and "super value creator" has been rising, especially as mainland companies seek to raise funds in the city amid escalating US-China tech competition [3] - The chaotic governance of the Trump administration has also contributed to international capital fleeing from US assets, further enhancing Hong Kong's appeal as a financial hub [3]