以下文章来源于中金公司CICC ，作者中金公司 中金公司副董事长、总裁、管理委员会成员王曙光在欢迎致辞中表示，世界百年变局加速演进，全球新一轮科技革命与产业变革加快发展，正重塑全球竞 争版图。国家各部委密集出台一揽子逆周期调节政策，市场预期得到显著改善，我国经济也展现出强大韧性与活力，以人工智能、创新药等为代表的新产 业、新叙事不断涌现，内地与香港资本市场走势积极向好。 ▲ 中金公司副董事长、总裁、管理委员会成员王曙光 王曙光指出，从中长期来看，我国经济正处在新旧动能加速迭代转换的关键阶段，以科技创新、绿色发展、智能制造等为代表的新质生产力正在成为驱动 经济增长的核心引擎。尤为值得关注的是，随着人工智能迅猛发展，中国超大规模人口与市场孕育的规模效应，正转化为技术创新的独特竞争优势，为经 济高质量发展持续注入强劲的内生动力。 围绕资本市场支持技术创新、助力经济转型的功能，王曙光表示，中金公司始终以服务国家战略、服务实体经济为己任，充分发挥"投资+投行+研究"一体 化协同优势，积极助力高水平科技自立自强与产业转型升级。中金研究近年来相继推出了《碳中和经济学》《大国产业链》《AI经济学》等取得广泛社会 影响的深度研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new phase of China-US economic and trade relations, highlighting the transition from conflict to a more balanced dialogue, which may have significant implications for global governance and the international monetary order [2][3]. Group 1: New Phase of China-US Economic Relations - The economic relationship between China and the US has evolved through three distinct phases: "coexistence and win-win" (2005-2016), increasing trade friction (2017-2024), and a new phase of equal dialogue starting in 2025 [4][5][12]. - The "coexistence and win-win" phase was characterized by strong economic interdependence, with China providing cheap labor and the US benefiting from low inflation and financial prosperity [5][7]. - The increasing trade friction phase saw the US imposing tariffs, with the effective tariff rate on China remaining high at 19.3% even after some easing in 2020 [11][12]. Group 2: Characteristics and Policy Implications of the New Phase - The new phase is marked by a balance of power, allowing for negotiations that could lead to mutually beneficial agreements, such as adjustments in tariffs on agricultural products and strategic resources [20][21]. - The US's reliance on China for certain exports and the need for China to maintain its economic growth create a scenario where both countries have incentives to engage in dialogue [20][22]. - The potential for currency adjustments, such as the appreciation of the yuan and the reduction of US tariffs, could help rebalance trade and improve consumer purchasing power in both countries [21][22]. Group 3: International Monetary Order and Asset Implications - The new phase may reinforce the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order, with a shift away from dollar dominance towards a more fragmented and diversified system [26][28]. - The trend of capital returning to domestic markets, particularly in China, indicates a growing preference for local investments amid global uncertainties [28][30]. - The long-term competition between the US and China is likely to drive increased investment in research and development, impacting various asset classes differently, with strategic resources like rare earths gaining importance [54][55].