【编者按】 今年1月特朗普重返白宫后，很快向包括中国在内的世界各国重新举起了"关税大棒"。经历了数轮交锋 后，如今中美关系处于新的起点之上。10月中美元首在韩国釜山举行会晤，特朗普将之称为"G2会 议"；在11月中美元首通话后，中美双方又基本敲定了对对方元首明年访问的邀请，明年双方各自举办 的多边主场外交也将为元首交往提供更多契机；近日，美国发布的新版《国家安全战略》报告将中美关 系定义为"同一量级"（near-peer）……上述一切不禁让人对中美关系下一阶段的发展充满期待和好奇。 在中美元首釜山会晤前，美国智库战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）发布的一篇文章中，有专家借用"剧透 警告"（Spoiler Alert）这一概念，指出对此次会晤最好事先设定界限和切合实际的预期。事先"剧透"的 预期有助于校准和稳定中美关系。 借用这一思路，在去年推出"寻找'基辛格'"系列报道的基础上，今年智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）国际 新闻中心在年终时刻继续推出"2026中美关系剧透警告"系列报道，与多位不同代际、对中美关系发挥着 一定影响的美方各界人士深度对话，请他们为我们"剧透"下阶段或者说2026年中美关系，并通 ...

【编者按】 今年1月特朗普重返白宫后，很快向包括中国在内的世界各国重新举起了"关税大棒"。经历了数轮交锋 后，如今中美关系处于新的起点之上。10月中美元首在韩国釜山举行会晤，特朗普将之称为"G2会 议"；在11月中美元首通话后，中美双方又基本敲定了对对方元首明年访问的邀请，明年双方各自举办 的多边主场外交也将为元首交往提供更多契机；近日，美国发布的新版《国家安全战略》报告将中美关 系定义为"同一量级"（near-peer）……上述一切不禁让人对中美关系下一阶段的发展充满期待和好奇。 今年5月，郑艺（左一）在上海美国商会成立110周年的庆祝活动上。 在担任商会会长前，郑艺是美资企业美亚保险总裁暨首席执行官，其母公司美国国际集团（AIG）于 1919年在上海成立。如今，美亚保险已成为规模最大的在华外商独资财产保险公司之一，总部依旧选在 上海。 除了企业高管的职业履历，郑艺曾代表美国商务部在美国驻广州领事馆担任首席商务官。政企复合的工 作经历与中美双重文化背景，让郑艺在代表美国企业发声、同中国政府打交道的过程中更得心应手一 些。 郑艺直言不讳地指出，自两国元首釜山会晤后，企业界对当前双边关系的判断短期积极，但中美关 ...

"两国元首已同意举行会晤，双方都表示可能进行多次会晤。"他进一步说，"可以期待的是，由于双方 都希望峰会取得成功，两国都会保持克制。我相信双方会努力避免制造困难或风险局面。" 借用这一思路，在去年推出"寻找'基辛格'"系列报道的基础上，今年智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）国际 新闻中心在年终时刻继续推出"2026中美关系剧透警告"系列报道，与多位不同代际、对中美关系发挥着 一定影响的美方各界人士深度对话，请他们为我们"剧透"下阶段或者说2026年中美关系，并通过他们的 视角去回顾、盘点、发现那些能在中美间发挥桥梁作用，推动两国交流交往的力量。 "目前，印太地区正处于潜在的冲突风险上升的时期。"日前，美国国家亚洲研究局高级研究员、国际知 名安全战略学者季北慈（Bates Gill）在沪接受智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）专访时特别提醒道，在他看 来，2026年的中美关系仍然可能面临变量和挑战，11月举行的美国中期选举是其中之一。他同时提醒要 对其他意外事件潜藏的危机和风险保持警惕，"我们显然需要付出更大努力来管控局势。"他说。 不过，在季北慈看来，最近一次韩国釜山中美元首会晤之后，中美的防务 ...

Core Insights - The nature of US-China competition has changed, with the US now acknowledging China as a competitor, marking a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics [3][4] - The concept of a "G2" world, where the US and China are the two dominant powers, is gaining traction, as highlighted by President Trump's remarks [4] - The long-term resilience of the Chinese economy is emphasized, with a focus on its manufacturing sector's growth and innovation capabilities [5][6] Group 1: US-China Relations - The US has imposed tariffs on over a hundred countries, but China has effectively countered these actions, leading to a balance of power [3] - The perception of China as an unstoppable force is growing among the American intellectual elite, indicating a potential shift towards coexistence [4] - The historical context of China's economic growth is highlighted, with projections showing its share of global manufacturing increasing from 5% in 2000 to 45% by 2030 [5] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - Despite macroeconomic challenges such as low consumption and a sluggish real estate market, China continues to see technological innovations in sectors like AI and electric vehicles [5] - The US dollar remains a powerful tool for the US, and any sanctions involving the dollar would significantly impact China [5] - The unexpected strength of the global economy, despite rising tariffs, suggests that regions outside the US are becoming more trade-oriented [7] Group 3: Innovation and Perception - The belief that Chinese individuals lack innovation is challenged, with evidence suggesting that local talent is increasingly driving innovation [6] - The discussion highlights the contrasting views of stability and harmony in Chinese society versus the Western emphasis on freedom and democracy [5][6] - The response of various Asian countries to US policies indicates a lack of unified retaliation, with smaller nations seeking to enhance trade relationships independently [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new phase of China-US economic and trade relations, highlighting the transition from conflict to a more balanced dialogue, which may have significant implications for global governance and the international monetary order [2][3]. Group 1: New Phase of China-US Economic Relations - The economic relationship between China and the US has evolved through three distinct phases: "coexistence and win-win" (2005-2016), increasing trade friction (2017-2024), and a new phase of equal dialogue starting in 2025 [4][5][12]. - The "coexistence and win-win" phase was characterized by strong economic interdependence, with China providing cheap labor and the US benefiting from low inflation and financial prosperity [5][7]. - The increasing trade friction phase saw the US imposing tariffs, with the effective tariff rate on China remaining high at 19.3% even after some easing in 2020 [11][12]. Group 2: Characteristics and Policy Implications of the New Phase - The new phase is marked by a balance of power, allowing for negotiations that could lead to mutually beneficial agreements, such as adjustments in tariffs on agricultural products and strategic resources [20][21]. - The US's reliance on China for certain exports and the need for China to maintain its economic growth create a scenario where both countries have incentives to engage in dialogue [20][22]. - The potential for currency adjustments, such as the appreciation of the yuan and the reduction of US tariffs, could help rebalance trade and improve consumer purchasing power in both countries [21][22]. Group 3: International Monetary Order and Asset Implications - The new phase may reinforce the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order, with a shift away from dollar dominance towards a more fragmented and diversified system [26][28]. - The trend of capital returning to domestic markets, particularly in China, indicates a growing preference for local investments amid global uncertainties [28][30]. - The long-term competition between the US and China is likely to drive increased investment in research and development, impacting various asset classes differently, with strategic resources like rare earths gaining importance [54][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the implications of recent statements made by Japanese politician Takashi Kawamura regarding Taiwan, and the lack of support from key allies like the United States, particularly from President Trump [1][2][3] - Trump's comments indicate a shift in the U.S. approach towards China and Japan, suggesting a potential easing of tensions and a reevaluation of the U.S.-Japan security alliance [2][5] - The articles highlight the fragility of the U.S.-Japan security framework, with Trump previously expressing dissatisfaction with the one-sided nature of the alliance, questioning the benefits for the U.S. [5][6] Group 2 - Kawamura's remarks have sparked significant controversy, leading to a need for Japan to manage the fallout and clarify its stance on Taiwan, which aligns with historical positions [6][7] - The Japanese government appears to be downplaying the situation, but there are concerns that such statements could embolden pro-independence forces in Taiwan and complicate Japan's security posture [6][7] - The articles suggest that the recent developments could have broader implications for Japan's foreign relations, particularly affecting trust within the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China dynamics [6][7]

Group 1 - China has decided to restore the export qualifications of three American soybean companies, indicating that U.S. soybeans will re-enter China's procurement range [1] - The U.S. has been using trade as a weapon, frequently imposing sanctions on other countries through methods such as raising tariffs and setting trade barriers [1][3] - The U.S. has historically been seen as a proponent of free trade, but it now operates under rules that primarily benefit itself, leveraging its position as the largest consumer market [3] Group 2 - The rise of emerging economies like China is challenging the existing trade rules that were established under U.S. dominance in international institutions [3][5] - The U.S. has reacted to this challenge by employing aggressive tactics, often disregarding international laws and rules to suppress the development of other economies [5] - China's response to U.S. tariffs included halting soybean purchases, which significantly impacted U.S. industries and led to domestic and international criticism of the U.S. government [5] Group 3 - The military capabilities of China have been enhanced, as indicated by the commissioning of the Fujian aircraft carrier, which signifies a new level of military strength [5] - The ongoing tensions and confrontations between the U.S. and China highlight that China has become a formidable opponent that the U.S. can no longer underestimate [5][7] - The intensifying struggle between the two nations suggests that China is growing stronger in the face of U.S. challenges [7]

Group 1 - The meeting between China and the United States in South Korea has attracted global attention, focusing on trade wars and strategic competition [1] - Trump's declaration of the meeting as a "G2 meeting" has sparked significant controversy in Western media [1][3] - The "G2" concept, originally proposed in 2005, aimed to strengthen bilateral relations between the U.S. and key global players, but was set aside after the 2008 financial crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The revival of the "G2" concept by Trump raises concerns among U.S. allies, who fear being sidelined in the improving U.S.-China relations [4][6] - Allies such as the EU, Australia, Japan, and South Korea worry about being excluded from the power structure that the "G2" represents [4] - The understanding of "G2" differs significantly between the U.S. and China, with China aiming for a multipolar world rather than a bipolar one [6][8] Group 3 - The Obama administration's approach to "G2" was to integrate China into the international system, contrasting with Trump's more confrontational stance [6] - China's rise has shifted its position in global affairs, making it a peer to the U.S., which complicates the feasibility of a "G2" framework [6] - China firmly rejects the "G2" concept, as it contradicts its diplomatic principles and commitment to developing countries [8]

I think among all the meetings between the two leaders, this one is perhaps the most important, a really historical why I think fundamentally the most important progress for both sides is for the US to recognize China as equal peer, as the equal partner to talk about things. So in fact, President Trump used the phrase of G2, which was used by President Obama many years ago. So this is a big, big progress.That means two implications. Okay. Number one, there will be bigger talks not only on trade, but also on ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the US-China talks and their impact on global markets, highlighting the transition into a "G2" era and the implications for investment opportunities in China amidst a low-interest-rate environment. Market Reactions - The market experienced significant fluctuations with a drop during the day followed by a recovery towards the end, influenced by the outcomes of the US-China talks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - Following the talks, the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve decreased from over 90% to around 70%, negatively impacting risk assets like Hong Kong stocks [4]. Global Economic Context - The article emphasizes the emergence of a "G2" era, recognizing the strength of both the US and China, and suggests that China's asset attractiveness will continue to grow due to low interest rates and industrial advancements [10]. - A comparison of GDP and market capitalization between the US and China indicates that while the US GDP is 1.5 times that of China, the total market capitalization is three times larger, suggesting potential for narrowing this gap through market reforms [10]. Company Performance Insights - The article reviews the third-quarter performance of several companies, noting that while some companies like X and Y maintained high growth rates, they faced negative growth in revenue compared to the previous quarter, indicating potential challenges ahead [20][21]. - Companies like 招行 (China Merchants Bank) and 茅台 (Moutai) showed minimal growth in net profit, yet 招行's stock price increased slightly, while 茅台's remained stable, reflecting market perceptions of their financial health [21][22]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that in a low-growth economic environment, companies with low valuations and high ROE (Return on Equity) still hold investment value, while high-growth companies may lack sufficient short-term safety margins [20]. - It highlights the importance of dividend policies, particularly for 茅台, which has increased its dividend payout ratio, thereby maintaining a stable ROE despite stagnant net profit growth [24]. Sector-Specific Trends - The article notes that the Hong Kong innovative drug sector continues to decline, with the implication that recent sell-offs may not necessarily be negative for investors, as they could mitigate larger losses [25]. - The wealth management business of 招行 showed significant growth, with a notable increase in trust and fund revenues, indicating a positive trend in this sector despite overall non-interest income declining [36][37].