Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new phase of China-US economic and trade relations, highlighting the transition from conflict to a more balanced dialogue, which may have significant implications for global governance and the international monetary order [2][3]. Group 1: New Phase of China-US Economic Relations - The economic relationship between China and the US has evolved through three distinct phases: "coexistence and win-win" (2005-2016), increasing trade friction (2017-2024), and a new phase of equal dialogue starting in 2025 [4][5][12]. - The "coexistence and win-win" phase was characterized by strong economic interdependence, with China providing cheap labor and the US benefiting from low inflation and financial prosperity [5][7]. - The increasing trade friction phase saw the US imposing tariffs, with the effective tariff rate on China remaining high at 19.3% even after some easing in 2020 [11][12]. Group 2: Characteristics and Policy Implications of the New Phase - The new phase is marked by a balance of power, allowing for negotiations that could lead to mutually beneficial agreements, such as adjustments in tariffs on agricultural products and strategic resources [20][21]. - The US's reliance on China for certain exports and the need for China to maintain its economic growth create a scenario where both countries have incentives to engage in dialogue [20][22]. - The potential for currency adjustments, such as the appreciation of the yuan and the reduction of US tariffs, could help rebalance trade and improve consumer purchasing power in both countries [21][22]. Group 3: International Monetary Order and Asset Implications - The new phase may reinforce the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order, with a shift away from dollar dominance towards a more fragmented and diversified system [26][28]. - The trend of capital returning to domestic markets, particularly in China, indicates a growing preference for local investments amid global uncertainties [28][30]. - The long-term competition between the US and China is likely to drive increased investment in research and development, impacting various asset classes differently, with strategic resources like rare earths gaining importance [54][55].

在涉台问题上轻佻启衅、发表危险言论的高市早苗没有得到其最重要盟友的支持。 据中青网新媒体青蜂侠NewsBee报道，当地时间11月10日，美国总统特朗普接受美国福克斯新闻采访， 期间主持人就近期中日两国外交风波提问。主持人提到了中国驻大阪总领事薛剑针对高市早苗涉台言论 发表的批评帖文，并拱火说："这样的人不能算是我们的朋友，对吧？" 特朗普回答："很多盟国也称不上是朋友。在贸易上，他们从我们这里获利比中国更多。"他还强调 说："我与中国的关系很好。" 特朗普没有为他的日本新朋友撑腰，这大约很出乎福克斯主持人的意料。但实际上，从特朗普对中美日 关系的认知变化过程来看，特朗普如此表态实属情理之中。 重提G2显示美国重新评估中国 自2017年以来，中美关系的主轴基本上可以形容为遏制与反遏制的关系。但这种基本面在近期出现了明 显变化。 10月30日，特朗普飞往韩国与中方举行峰会前，发帖写道："G2马上召开!"该帖文当即引发广泛关注。 G2是美国经济学家弗雷德 伯格斯滕2005年就中美两大国提出的关系设想，包含了中美是对等关系的含 义，但美国官方从未正式认可这个概念。特朗普使用G2，被认为是主动缓和两国关系之举。 迹象表 ...

Group 1 - China has decided to restore the export qualifications of three American soybean companies, indicating that U.S. soybeans will re-enter China's procurement range [1] - The U.S. has been using trade as a weapon, frequently imposing sanctions on other countries through methods such as raising tariffs and setting trade barriers [1][3] - The U.S. has historically been seen as a proponent of free trade, but it now operates under rules that primarily benefit itself, leveraging its position as the largest consumer market [3] Group 2 - The rise of emerging economies like China is challenging the existing trade rules that were established under U.S. dominance in international institutions [3][5] - The U.S. has reacted to this challenge by employing aggressive tactics, often disregarding international laws and rules to suppress the development of other economies [5] - China's response to U.S. tariffs included halting soybean purchases, which significantly impacted U.S. industries and led to domestic and international criticism of the U.S. government [5] Group 3 - The military capabilities of China have been enhanced, as indicated by the commissioning of the Fujian aircraft carrier, which signifies a new level of military strength [5] - The ongoing tensions and confrontations between the U.S. and China highlight that China has become a formidable opponent that the U.S. can no longer underestimate [5][7] - The intensifying struggle between the two nations suggests that China is growing stronger in the face of U.S. challenges [7]

Group 1 - The meeting between China and the United States in South Korea has attracted global attention, focusing on trade wars and strategic competition [1] - Trump's declaration of the meeting as a "G2 meeting" has sparked significant controversy in Western media [1][3] - The "G2" concept, originally proposed in 2005, aimed to strengthen bilateral relations between the U.S. and key global players, but was set aside after the 2008 financial crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The revival of the "G2" concept by Trump raises concerns among U.S. allies, who fear being sidelined in the improving U.S.-China relations [4][6] - Allies such as the EU, Australia, Japan, and South Korea worry about being excluded from the power structure that the "G2" represents [4] - The understanding of "G2" differs significantly between the U.S. and China, with China aiming for a multipolar world rather than a bipolar one [6][8] Group 3 - The Obama administration's approach to "G2" was to integrate China into the international system, contrasting with Trump's more confrontational stance [6] - China's rise has shifted its position in global affairs, making it a peer to the U.S., which complicates the feasibility of a "G2" framework [6] - China firmly rejects the "G2" concept, as it contradicts its diplomatic principles and commitment to developing countries [8]

I think among all the meetings between the two leaders, this one is perhaps the most important, a really historical why I think fundamentally the most important progress for both sides is for the US to recognize China as equal peer, as the equal partner to talk about things. So in fact, President Trump used the phrase of G2, which was used by President Obama many years ago. So this is a big, big progress.That means two implications. Okay. Number one, there will be bigger talks not only on trade, but also on ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the US-China talks and their impact on global markets, highlighting the transition into a "G2" era and the implications for investment opportunities in China amidst a low-interest-rate environment. Market Reactions - The market experienced significant fluctuations with a drop during the day followed by a recovery towards the end, influenced by the outcomes of the US-China talks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. - Following the talks, the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve decreased from over 90% to around 70%, negatively impacting risk assets like Hong Kong stocks [4]. Global Economic Context - The article emphasizes the emergence of a "G2" era, recognizing the strength of both the US and China, and suggests that China's asset attractiveness will continue to grow due to low interest rates and industrial advancements [10]. - A comparison of GDP and market capitalization between the US and China indicates that while the US GDP is 1.5 times that of China, the total market capitalization is three times larger, suggesting potential for narrowing this gap through market reforms [10]. Company Performance Insights - The article reviews the third-quarter performance of several companies, noting that while some companies like X and Y maintained high growth rates, they faced negative growth in revenue compared to the previous quarter, indicating potential challenges ahead [20][21]. - Companies like 招行 (China Merchants Bank) and 茅台 (Moutai) showed minimal growth in net profit, yet 招行's stock price increased slightly, while 茅台's remained stable, reflecting market perceptions of their financial health [21][22]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that in a low-growth economic environment, companies with low valuations and high ROE (Return on Equity) still hold investment value, while high-growth companies may lack sufficient short-term safety margins [20]. - It highlights the importance of dividend policies, particularly for 茅台, which has increased its dividend payout ratio, thereby maintaining a stable ROE despite stagnant net profit growth [24]. Sector-Specific Trends - The article notes that the Hong Kong innovative drug sector continues to decline, with the implication that recent sell-offs may not necessarily be negative for investors, as they could mitigate larger losses [25]. - The wealth management business of 招行 showed significant growth, with a notable increase in trust and fund revenues, indicating a positive trend in this sector despite overall non-interest income declining [36][37].

Ray Dalio’s observations on Anglo decline seem overstated, perhaps bc he speaks from within that perspective. He is obviously right about the UK, but to even discuss the UK and US in one breath is archaic. In Beijing itself, the currently fashionable theory appears to be the G7 -> G2 power architecture transition, which is to say that two complementary superpowers decide everything.After this period of posturing ends, the relationship likely settles back to core cooperation on shared interests. Tariffs func ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's rise to a position of equal negotiation status with the United States, moving from rejecting the "G2" concept to becoming a key player in global governance and trade dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 2009, China rejected the "G2" proposal from the Obama administration, recognizing it as an attempt by the U.S. to dominate the international system [1]. - Over the past sixteen years, the global landscape has shifted, with the Trump administration initiating a global tariff war, yet China has managed to respond effectively and assertively [3]. Group 2: China's Economic and Technological Strength - China now contributes 30% to global economic growth in 2024, establishing itself as an indispensable engine of the world economy [3]. - The country has transitioned from being a "follower" to a "co-runner" in technology, leading in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing [3]. Group 3: China's Vision for Global Order - China's rise is not aimed at replacing U.S. leadership but rather at promoting a fairer and more inclusive international order [4]. - The country advocates for a multipolar world where decisions are made collectively rather than dominated by a few nations [4]. Group 4: Current U.S.-China Relations - The current state of U.S.-China relations is characterized as "not too good, but not too bad," indicating a complex interdependence [4]. - China has demonstrated its capability to handle challenges posed by tariffs and technology restrictions, asserting that it will not accept unequal treatment [4][5]. Group 5: Future Implications - The world will witness China actively participating in and even leading the formulation of global rules, reflecting its hard-earned respect and dignity [5]. - The journey from rejecting "G2" to achieving true equality in negotiations signifies China's commitment to its development path and its contribution to global governance reform [5].