Report Summary 1. Core View - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, the same as last time [4]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 101.5036 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.45 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of consumption weakened to 3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped significantly to 1.1%, mainly dragged down by real estate investment, which had a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 13.9% from January to September [6]. - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, the market risk appetite may fluctuate in the short term. After the adverse factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Before November 1 when the 100% US tariff takes effect, the stock index is expected to fluctuate as the situation may become clearer after the possible meeting between the top leaders of China and the US at the APEC meeting [6]. 2. Market Data Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.47 | 0.00 | | DR007 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | GC001 | 1.16 | - 6.00 | | GC007 | 1.45 | - 1.00 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.47 | 0.00 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.59 | 2.25 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.77 | 2.10 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.02 | 1.80 | [3] - The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 189 billion yuan. With 253.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 64.8 billion yuan [3]. - This week, 1.021 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. Stock Index Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4538 | 0.53 | | IF Current Month | 4520 | 0.5 | | SSE 50 | 2975 | 0.24 | | IH Current Month | 2972 | 0.3 | | CSI 500 | 7070 | 0.76 | | IC Current Month | 6972 | 0.7 | | CSI 1000 | 7239 | 0.75 | | IM Current Month | 7138 | 0.5 | | IF Trading Volume | 112287 | - 33.7 | | IF Open Interest | 257451 | - 3.1 | | IH Trading Volume | 52619 | - 41.0 | | IH Open Interest | 89892 | - 8.2 | | IC Trading Volume | 134833 | - 21.8 | | IC Open Interest | 243216 | - 1.4 | | IM Trading Volume | 228283 | - 21.5 | | IM Open Interest | 354337 | - 2.7 | [5] - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.53% to 4538.2, the SSE 50 rose 0.24% to 2974.9, the CSI 500 rose 0.76% to 7069.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.75% to 7239.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7376 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, gas, non - metallic materials, motors, airports, communication services, batteries, communication equipment, and consumer electronics leading the gains, while the precious metals sector tumbled [5]. Futures Premium and Discount | | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 4.63% | 4.21% | 2.99% | 3.03% | | IH Premium/Discount | 1.10% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.26% | | IC Premium/Discount | 15.75% | 13.81% | 11.02% | 10.72% | | IM Premium/Discount | 16.01% | 15.12% | 13.28% | 12.54% | [7] Note: The values in brackets are the annualized premium/discount rates (green indicates premium, red indicates discount).

Group 1: Market Data and Performance - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.56bp increase, DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.40bp decrease, GC001 at 1.22 with a 15.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.10bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.02bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.82bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a 3.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations, with 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day term repurchases, and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6979 billion yuan [4] - This week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2538 billion, 910 billion, 435 billion, 2360 billion, and 1648 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [5] - The CSI 300 closed at 4514 with a 2.26% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2968 with a 1.70% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7016 with a 2.98% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 7185 with a 2.92% decrease [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540 with a 1.6% decrease, IH当月 at 2983 with a 1.2% decrease, IC当月 at 7064 with a 2.2% decrease, and IM当月 at 7230 with a 2.3% decrease [5] - IF trading volume was 169431 with a 10.4% increase, IF open interest was 265794 with a 3.3% decrease, IH trading volume was 89212 with a 16.9% increase, IH open interest was 97922 with a 5.7% decrease, IC trading volume was 172400 with a 8.7% increase, IC open interest was 246587 with a 2.6% decrease, and IM trading volume was 290913 with a 16.5% increase, IM open interest was 364222 with a 2.5% increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4514.2, the SSE 50 fell 0.24% to 2967.8, the CSI 500 fell 5.17% to 7016.1, and the CSI 1000 fell 4.62% to 7185.5 [5] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, only banking (4.9%), food and beverage (0.9%), and transportation (0.4%) rose last week, while electronics (-7.1%), media (-6.3%), automobiles (-6%), communication (-5.9%), and machinery and equipment (-5.8%) led the decline [5] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 21038 billion, 23147 billion, 18835 billion, 17526 billion, and 17598 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 1132.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] Group 2: Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, market risk appetite may fluctuate [6] - As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel [6] - Key time points to watch include the APEC ministerial meeting from October 29 - 30 and the APEC leaders' summit from October 31 - November 1, so the stock index market may be clearer by the end of the month [6] - Before that, the strategy should focus on risk avoidance, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more resilient, and long - position investors in stock index futures can consider using options for risk hedging [6] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount for the next - month contract is 4.52%, the current - quarter contract is 3.85%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.73% [7] - IH premium/discount for the next - month contract is 1.33%, the current - quarter contract is 0.96%, and the next - quarter contract is 0.34% [7] - IC premium/discount for the next - month contract is 14.77%, the current - quarter contract is 13.04%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.75% [7] - IM premium/discount for the next - month contract is 13.16%, the current - quarter contract is 13.71%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.72% [7]