Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The subsequent stock index trend is expected to remain generally strong but with increased volatility. On one hand, under the optimistic sentiment, the current upward trend of the stock index is mainly driven by loose domestic and foreign liquidity. After the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, the expectation of the interest rate cut path may cause short - term marginal fluctuations in liquidity. If the Fed slows down the interest rate cut rhythm due to strong US inflation and employment, overseas liquidity will tighten marginally, and the stock index may face a phased adjustment. If US inflation and employment are weak, the expectation of interest rate cuts will heat up, overseas liquidity will loosen marginally, further boosting the stock index. If one is strong and the other is weak, the stock index trend may be volatile under the repeated influence of interest rate cut expectations. On the other hand, the intensification of domestic service consumption policies and the existence of valuation repair space will provide strong support for the market, forming a bottom - support for A - shares, and the downside space is small. Therefore, if there is an adjustment, the amplitude will not be large [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multiple Benefits and the Market Rally In August, the CSI 300 index increased by 3.54%. In August, the A - share market showed a certain upward trend. The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index on August 30 was 5427, with a slight increase of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day, and a cumulative increase of 2.45% in August [11]. 3.2 September: Stability at Home, Changes Abroad - **3.2.1 September Fed Interest Rate Cut Almost Certain, Focus on Marginal Changes in Liquidity** The CME data shows that as of August, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is 87.5%. The PCE in July 2024 was 2.9%. The Fed's interest rate cut situation will have an impact on the A - share market through liquidity [12]. - **3.2.2 Domestic Policy Expectations Continue to Provide Bottom - Support** In August, the cumulative increase of the CSI 300 index was 20% lower than that of the Consumption 100 index. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic catering revenue was 4.9%, and in June it was 3.8%. Domestic policies are expected to continue to support the A - share market [14]. - **3.2.3 There is Still a Large Space for Valuation Repair** The valuation of the CSI 300 index has a large repair space, with a historical percentile of 60 - 66%. From August 1 to 29, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 index increased from 13.11 to 14.12, an increase of 7.7%. Compared with historical high - points such as 45.2 in 2007, 19 in 2015, and 16.5 in 2021, there is still room for improvement. In August, the TTM of the A - share market also showed certain changes, with the TTM of the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.95%, the TTM of the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.41%, and the TTM of the ChiNext Index increasing by 15.25%. The DR007 central value continued to decline in August, which is conducive to market liquidity [18][21]. 3.3 Market Outlook In August, the trading sentiment was hot. The PCR (Put - Call Ratio) of some index futures was at a relatively high level, such as the PCR of IM and IH reaching 95%, and the MO PCR reaching 90% in August [24].

格隆汇7月31日｜墨西哥比索兑美元短线拉升，整体涨超0.4%刷新日高；墨西哥股指转涨。此前，特朗 普同意将与墨西哥的协议延长90天 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, stock indices are likely to oscillate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for direction guidance. In the long - term, the July Politburo meeting will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, stable domestic demand requires more policy support. Overseas, with the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and geopolitical changes, there will be trading opportunities for stock indices [6]. 3. Content Summaries Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 1.46 with a 68.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.58 with an 11.00bp decrease. SHBOR 3M was at 1.63 with a 0.20bp decrease, LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.34, 1.49, and 1.65 respectively, with changes of - 0.50bp, 0.50bp, and 0.10bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond was at 4.24 with a 5.00bp decrease [3]. - The central bank conducted 1310 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due, and the central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, resulting in a net injection of 1180 billion yuan after the 1820 - billion - yuan maturity, and a net injection of 3180 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity considering repurchase operations. In the future, the central bank may continue to supplement liquidity through MLF over - renewal or combined with reverse repurchases [3][4]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 0.17% to 3942.8, the SSE 50 rose 0.21% to 2717.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.33% to 5934.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 6373.8. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 14660 billion yuan, a decrease of 208 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, with glass fiber, chemical pharmaceuticals, and others leading the gains, while diversified finance, software development, etc. led the losses [6]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF当月 closed at 3912 with a 0.1% increase, IH当月 at 2696 with a 0.1% increase, IC当月 at 2868 with a 0.1% increase, and IM当月 at 6287 with a 0.1% increase. The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC decreased by 11.4%, 21.1%, 3.7% respectively, while IM increased by 5.7%. The open interests of IF, IH, IC decreased by 2.4%, 3.1%, 0.2% respectively, while IM increased by 3.3% [5]. - The premium/discount rates of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.97%, 9.83%, 6.57%, 5.01% respectively; IH升贴水 are 17.15%, 7.97%, 4.69%, 2.21% respectively; IC升贴水 are 24.12%, 16.00%, 13.07%, 10.61% respectively; IM升贴水 are 29.30%, 20.79%, 17.21%, 14.14% respectively [7].

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada closed down 0.22% at 26,692.32 points, with a weekly increase of 0.73%, indicating an overall M-shaped trend [1] - The small-cap index fell by 1.00% to 896.97 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.99% [1] - On Friday, June 27, the yield on Canada's 10-year benchmark government bond decreased by 0.98 basis points to 3.307%, with a weekly increase of 0.4 basis points [1] Group 2 - The yield on the two-year Canadian government bond dropped by 2.6 basis points to 2.600%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.5 basis points [1] - The five-year Canadian government bond yield fell by 3.4 basis points to 2.852%, with a cumulative weekly decline of 4.2 basis points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite numerous recent macro - events, the stock index showed a lackluster response. The four major broad - based indices had a pattern of rising and then falling, indicating significant short - term technical pressure. Although the progress of Sino - US talks this week exceeded market expectations, the market's one - sided rally sentiment was limited. It is expected that a retracement is needed before a second upward push. The current market situation can be compared to the second half of 2019, and it is in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with the trend remaining a sideways market. In the medium - term, there is a bullish outlook, waiting for a game - changing factor like the 2020 pandemic. [3] - In terms of portfolio, compared with the previous trade war period, China's policies have been pre - emptively implemented this time, and the easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are more substantial. It is expected that the small - cap style will be dominant, and investors can participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China took counter - measures including tariff and non - tariff measures in response to the US's unreasonable tariff hikes on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and these counter - measures remain in effect. [4] - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. In the first four months of this year, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review 3.2.1 Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a differentiated upward trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.30%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.15%. In terms of sectors, insurance (+5.15%) and shipping (+4.94%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (- 0.82%) and construction machinery (- 1.90%) lagged. More than 2300 stocks rose, and 91 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect. [4] 3.2.2 Technical Tracking - After the previous oversold rebound, the daily - level technical indicators of the stock index have generally recovered, while the weekly and monthly indicators still show a sideways trend. [4] 3.2.3 Fund Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, remaining above 1.3 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. Market sentiment remained cautious. The sustainability of a short - term one - sided rally is questionable, and the trading volume in the next two days needs to be observed. [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary and Operation Suggestions 3.3.1 Core Logic Summary - The current market situation is similar to the second half of 2019, in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with a sideways trend. In the medium - term, it is bullish, waiting for a game - changing factor. The small - cap style is expected to be dominant. [3] 3.3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Due to the under - expected speculative sentiment, investors should respect the technical pressure. In the short - term, they can either wait and see or do intraday rolling long on IM, and increase the position appropriately when there is a sharp decline. They can also participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of options rose and then fell yesterday. The current - month IV of the CSI 300 is around 14 - 15%. Given the low short - term volatility and the rapidly changing news, investors can continue to bet on short - term straddles, but should pay attention to short - term positions. [3]