1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish. The long - term outlook is strong, attributed to macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Last night, the gold price rebounded and once approached the $4050 mark. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the early morning, the gold price weakened again [3]. - Interest - Rate Decision: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. However, internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts indicate that future rate - cut paths will depend on economic data, and the market's expected probability of a December rate cut has decreased [3]. - Attention Points: In the short - term technically, focus on the long - short game at the $4000 mark, and on the news front, pay attention to the dynamics of the APEC meeting [3]. Copper - Price Movement: Yesterday, the copper price increased with rising positions and the night - session price reached the 89,000 mark. LME copper also broke through its high in the past five years. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the early morning, LME copper dropped significantly [4]. - Interest - Rate Decision: Similar to gold, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal policy differences and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts affected the market [4]. - Market Relationship: Since late October, as the gold price weakened, the copper price has been strong, and the gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly. Continuously monitor the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term, synthetic rubber (especially cis - butadiene rubber) is expected to form a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games during the day, and the medium - term price center will gradually decline. The raw material end has weakened significantly, leading to the gradual repair of production profits. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, while the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased. The macro events in the short - term have a greater impact on the equity market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: For the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber, the daily closing price was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 195,650 lots, an increase of 83,214 lots; the open interest was 52,216 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots; the trading volume was 1041.436 million yuan, an increase of 430.208 million yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 105 yuan, down 90 yuan; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 (private) was 45 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) decreased by 150 yuan; the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 150 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 300 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.8996%, an increase of 1.74%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 10,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 309 yuan; the profit was 363 yuan/ton, an increase of 309 yuan [1]. [Industry News] - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. Some production enterprises stopped or planned to stop production, and the production profit was gradually repaired, driving some private enterprises to sell at low prices. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises decreased significantly [2]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. There were imported ships arriving at the port during the cycle, and the inventory of some trading volumes increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase in the sample port inventory. Merchants expect the import volume in November to be abundant [2][3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 4000-point mark for the third time in history on October 28, marking its first return to this level in a decade, although it later retreated to close at 3988 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,479 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,923 billion yuan compared to the previous Monday [1] Competition Insights - The 76th session of the simulated stock trading competition, hosted by the Daily Economic News App, began on October 20, with some participants achieving returns exceeding 40% [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate trading with a capital of 500,000 yuan, running from October 20 to October 31, with registration open until October 31 [1] Rewards Structure - Cash rewards for the competition include 688 yuan for the first place, 188 yuan for the second to fourth places, and 88 yuan for the fifth to tenth places, with additional distribution of 500 yuan among other profitable participants [3] - Monthly leaderboard rewards include 888 yuan for the top position, with decreasing amounts for subsequent ranks, ensuring a broad distribution of incentives [3] Market Sentiment - Experts participating in the competition noted a cautious market sentiment, as the index broke through the critical resistance level of 3950 points with declining trading volume, indicating increased market observation ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the APEC meeting [3] - Promising sectors identified by participants include brokerage firms, transformer exports, logistics robots, and rare metals [3] Trading Tools and Resources - Participants have reported success in leveraging the Daily Economic News App's "Fire Line Quick Review" feature, which has highlighted opportunities in the silver sector multiple times this year [4] - Registration for the competition grants access to six days of free reading of the "Fire Line Quick Review," with additional rewards for top performers [4]

Core Points - The recent two-day trade talks between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on key economic issues, including maritime logistics, shipbuilding, and agricultural trade [1][2][3] - Both sides emphasized the importance of mutual respect and cooperation to resolve trade disputes, highlighting the significance of the U.S.-China economic relationship on a global scale [2][5] - The discussions were described as constructive, with both parties expressing a commitment to further detail and internal approval processes for the agreements reached [1][4] Group 1 - The talks were led by China's Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, lasting over five hours on the first day [2][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that a "very successful framework" was established during the negotiations, which could pave the way for a meeting between the two countries' leaders [3][4] - The outcome of the talks is seen as a sign of easing tensions between the two largest economies, with the current suspension of tariffs set to expire on November 10 [4][5] Group 2 - The discussions covered a wide range of topics, including export controls, the extension of tariff suspensions, and cooperation on fentanyl issues, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade relations [2][5] - Analysts noted that the timing of the talks before the APEC meeting could signal a positive development in U.S.-China relations, which is crucial for global economic stability [5][6] - The upcoming APEC meeting is expected to be influenced by the outcomes of the U.S.-China discussions, with South Korea playing a pivotal role as the host [6][7]

Core Points - The recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on several key economic issues, including maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, and agricultural trade [1][3][4] - Both sides expressed a commitment to further define specific details and follow their internal approval processes [1][4] - The discussions were characterized as constructive, with both parties acknowledging the importance of maintaining stable economic relations [3][4][5] Group 1: Key Issues Discussed - The talks covered a range of topics, including export controls, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl-related tariffs, and the 301 maritime fee measures [4][5] - The US Treasury Secretary described the negotiations as having established a "very successful framework" for future discussions [4][5] - Both sides indicated that the discussions were intense but ultimately productive, with a focus on mutual respect and cooperation [3][6] Group 2: Future Implications - The outcome of these talks is seen as a potential easing of tensions between the two largest economies, with implications for global trade dynamics [5][6] - The upcoming APEC meeting is expected to be influenced by the results of the US-China discussions, with global attention on whether the two leaders will meet [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the success of these negotiations could impact not only US-China relations but also broader economic interactions in the Asia-Pacific region [6][8]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the macro - financial situation, including stocks, bonds, and various commodity sectors, on October 23, 2025, considering factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [2]. 1. Macro - financial Core View - Sino - US game persists in the short - term, global risk appetite cools, domestic economic growth accelerates, and policy support increases. Market trading focuses on domestic stimulus policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2]. Asset Recommendations - **Stocks**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Commodities** - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level correction, cautious waiting [2]. 2. Stock Index Market Performance - Domestic stocks decline slightly due to the drag of precious metals, base metals, and battery sectors [3]. Fundamental and Policy Analysis - Domestic economic growth accelerates, Sino - US game affects risk preference, and increased policy support boosts risk preference. Market trading focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward drive weakening [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term cautious long [3]. 3. Precious Metals Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. Shanghai gold futures dropped 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and spot gold fell 0.73% to $4093.77 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 0.04% to 11331 yuan/kg [3]. Trend Analysis - Short - term high - level correction, long - term upward pattern unchanged [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term: Reduce long positions and wait; long - term: Buy on dips [3]. 4. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume [4]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - level factors cause market divergence. Real demand is weak but improving marginally, with inventory decreasing and apparent consumption rising. Supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits [4]. - **Trend Judgment**: No trending market, limited upside and downside in the short - term [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded [5][6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Iron water output is expected to decline further. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126000 tons this week, and arrivals decreased by 526400 tons. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines narrowed [6]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound thinking [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Alloy demand decreased due to lower steel output. Silicon manganese production capacity utilization increased slightly. Silicon iron prices and raw material prices were stable [7]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound [7]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, Shanghai copper was strong. US copper inventory is at a historical high, and an Indonesian mine's suspension supports prices [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The suspension is temporary, and next year is a year of high copper supply growth. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: High - level shock [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, supported by the overseas market [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: An overseas smelter's accident affected a small amount of capacity. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are poor, but market expectations are neutral - bullish. London aluminum inventory decreased [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term [10]. Tin - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by Indonesian policies and Myanmar's production. Demand is weak in traditional industries and affected by pre - installed demand in the photovoltaic industry. High prices suppress demand, and inventory decreased this week [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: High - level shock [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.63% to 76740 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply and demand both increased, with strong seasonal demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish shock, pay attention to resistance levels [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.06% to 8500 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Production reached a new high, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces pressure from warehouse receipts [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound, pay attention to cost support [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.55% to 50235 yuan/ton, with decreased positions. Warehouse receipts increased [13]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is low, and wait for the implementation of state - reserve news [13][14]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to spot price support [14]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: US sanctions on Russian oil companies and EIA inventory data led to a significant rebound in oil prices [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: Long - term downward expectation remains [15]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Oil price rebound drove asphalt prices up, but the basis is low, and trading volume is light. Factory inventory pressure persists, and social inventory is being depleted in East China [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to the rebound space of crude oil, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [15]. PX - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price rebound and processing fee repair demand are expected to lead to a range - bound adjustment. PXN spread rebounded slightly [16]. - **Trend Judgment**: Tight - balance in October, likely to follow the energy - chemical sector to rebound slightly and then stabilize [16]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price rebound drove PTA up, but demand is low, processing fee is low, and inventory is accumulating. Basis is negative, and short - selling positions are increasing [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, limited follow - up to crude oil [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Price is at a low level, port inventory increased, and demand is weak. Oil price rebound drove a slight increase in futures prices [17]. - **Trend Judgment**: Likely to be weak again [17]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: Followed the polyester sector and oil prices to rebound slightly [17]. - **Trend Judgment**: Weak - shock pattern, follow the polyester sector and consider shorting on rallies [17]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: Domestic methanol prices are mixed, and inventory increased. Supply decreased in the short - term, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand structure [19]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound in the short - term [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: Market prices are range - bound, and inventory decreased [20]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Crude oil price recovery improved market sentiment, but prices are still weak [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand [20]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Prices are adjusted, with some regional increases. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is differentiated, and the overall demand support is limited [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: Market is under pressure [20]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Prices are stable. The 2026 fertilizer import tariff quota has limited impact on urea prices [21]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand from compound fertilizers is ending, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking [21]. - **Trend Judgment**: May rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is a risk of decline later [21]. 7. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose 0.12% to 1049.75 on the overnight market [22]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentine weather is good. Sino - US soybean trade is the key factor for the future [22]. - **Trend Judgment**: Narrow - range shock, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a phenomenon of urging delivery. Mills are in loss, and the willingness to support prices is strong. There is a supply gap risk before the South American new soybean harvest [22][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply is tight due to low operating rate, and it follows soybean meal's trend [23]. - **Trend Judgment**: Soybean meal may stabilize after an oversold decline [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term prices may be dragged down by palm oil. It is in the peak season, but trading is unchanged. The price difference between soybean and palm oil provides consumption expectations [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the supply of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil, inventory reduction supports the basis [23]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybean oil decline may drag down palm oil futures. Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and domestic inventory increased [24]. - **Trend Judgment**: MPOC expects prices to be stable above 4400 ringgit/ton for the rest of 2025 [24]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn prices are strong, and new - season corn is being listed. Demand is positive, and farmers may be reluctant to sell [24]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: Breeding profits are in loss, and the supply peak has not arrived. Pig prices rebounded slightly, and the sentiment of secondary fattening is cautious [25]. - **Trend Judgment**: Difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice, but the risk of extreme decline is low [25].

Group 1: Market Data and Performance - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.56bp increase, DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.40bp decrease, GC001 at 1.22 with a 15.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.10bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.02bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.82bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a 3.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations, with 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day term repurchases, and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6979 billion yuan [4] - This week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2538 billion, 910 billion, 435 billion, 2360 billion, and 1648 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [5] - The CSI 300 closed at 4514 with a 2.26% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2968 with a 1.70% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7016 with a 2.98% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 7185 with a 2.92% decrease [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540 with a 1.6% decrease, IH当月 at 2983 with a 1.2% decrease, IC当月 at 7064 with a 2.2% decrease, and IM当月 at 7230 with a 2.3% decrease [5] - IF trading volume was 169431 with a 10.4% increase, IF open interest was 265794 with a 3.3% decrease, IH trading volume was 89212 with a 16.9% increase, IH open interest was 97922 with a 5.7% decrease, IC trading volume was 172400 with a 8.7% increase, IC open interest was 246587 with a 2.6% decrease, and IM trading volume was 290913 with a 16.5% increase, IM open interest was 364222 with a 2.5% increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4514.2, the SSE 50 fell 0.24% to 2967.8, the CSI 500 fell 5.17% to 7016.1, and the CSI 1000 fell 4.62% to 7185.5 [5] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, only banking (4.9%), food and beverage (0.9%), and transportation (0.4%) rose last week, while electronics (-7.1%), media (-6.3%), automobiles (-6%), communication (-5.9%), and machinery and equipment (-5.8%) led the decline [5] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 21038 billion, 23147 billion, 18835 billion, 17526 billion, and 17598 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 1132.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] Group 2: Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, market risk appetite may fluctuate [6] - As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel [6] - Key time points to watch include the APEC ministerial meeting from October 29 - 30 and the APEC leaders' summit from October 31 - November 1, so the stock index market may be clearer by the end of the month [6] - Before that, the strategy should focus on risk avoidance, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more resilient, and long - position investors in stock index futures can consider using options for risk hedging [6] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount for the next - month contract is 4.52%, the current - quarter contract is 3.85%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.73% [7] - IH premium/discount for the next - month contract is 1.33%, the current - quarter contract is 0.96%, and the next - quarter contract is 0.34% [7] - IC premium/discount for the next - month contract is 14.77%, the current - quarter contract is 13.04%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.75% [7] - IM premium/discount for the next - month contract is 13.16%, the current - quarter contract is 13.71%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.72% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade friction disturbs the stock index, which opens lower but is expected to rebound after the initial decline, with the long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market influence is complex, and the 10 - year Treasury bond has increased allocation value when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Affected by trade friction, the stock index opens lower. It is recommended to sell put options near MO2512 - P - 7000 to collect premiums [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the spot bond interest rate rises. The T2512 oscillation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is advisable to wait for oversold opportunities [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Due to the continuous fermentation of Sino - US trade friction concerns, precious metals reach new highs. It is recommended to buy gold at a light position above 910 yuan and maintain a long - silver strategy above 50 dollars [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Given macro uncertainties, it is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Affected by Sino - US friction, steel prices are weakly sorted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances weaken, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Coking Coal**: After the festival, coking coal prices have a phased correction. It is recommended to go short on coking coal 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented before the festival, and there is limited room for further increases. It is recommended to go short on coke 2601 at high prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: With the easing of tariff concerns, copper prices are strongly running. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [3]. - **Alumina**: The market supply is sufficient, and the spot price continues to fall. The main operation range is 2850 - 3050 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment boosts the price center to around 21000, and the main reference range is 20700 - 21300 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum quotation is firm, and the finished ingot price rises with the aluminum price. The main reference range is 20200 - 20800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have limited support for prices, and zinc prices oscillate. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [3]. - **Tin**: With the repair of the macro - sentiment, tin prices rise slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectations are volatile, and the main reference range is 120000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - risk increases, and the industrial demand is still insufficient. The main reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - sentiment repair promotes the oil price rebound, but the loose fundamentals suppress the oil price. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis [3]. - **Urea**: The market trading sentiment improves, but the short - term rebound lacks fundamental support. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and reduce the implied volatility at high prices on the option side [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the oil price support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on PX11 and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on TA and pay attention to the support near 4500, and conduct rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and there is short - term support. It is recommended to increase the spread at low positions, but the driving force is limited [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, but the cost side is weak, and the short - term processing fee improves. The trading suggestions are the same as those for PTA, and the main processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol**: The port inventory accumulates, and the supply - demand structure of MEG in the far - month is weak. It is recommended to short - sell EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 at high prices [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term downstream demand for alumina is average. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **PVC**: The spot procurement enthusiasm is average, and the disk continues to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate following benzene ethylene and the oil price in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the benzene ethylene price may be under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell on the rebound of EB11 and increase the spread at the low level of the EB - BZ spread [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support weakens, and the supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to hold the seller of the call option BR2511 - C - 11400 [3]. - **LLDPE**: The disk price drops, and the arbitrage transaction is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is significantly repaired, and the transaction improves. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens significantly, and the transaction is acceptable. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean and Related Products**: Affected by the changing Sino - US trade expectations, the supply pressure suppresses domestic prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of 01 near 2900 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The slaughter pressure of the breeding end is large, and the pig price remains low, showing a weak oscillating trend [3]. - **Corn**: As the supply increases, the disk price is under pressure and runs weakly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the fundamentals, palm oil stops falling and recovers. The main short - term oscillation range may be between 9000 - 9500 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is broad, and the raw sugar price drops sharply. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: With the new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure increases. It is recommended to hold short positions [3]. - **Egg**: After the festival, the demand weakens, and it maintains a short - bias trend. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2511 contract at low prices and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The redness of late - Fuji apples is relatively light, and the high - quality apples have a significant price advantage. The main price runs near 8600 [3]. - **Jujube**: As the harvest time approaches, the long - short game intensifies, and it is bearish in the long - term [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the soda ash price runs weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on the rebound [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales performance is average, and the logic of the off - peak season in the peak season continues. It is recommended to observe cautiously [3]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material price increase situation during the peak production season and wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply increases, and with cost support, the price oscillates between 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The supply increases, and polysilicon is under pressure. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices when the price returns to the lower edge of the range, and pay attention to the implementation of capacity storage [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is weak, the fundamentals maintain a tight balance, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.5 million [3].

Core Points - The event "China-Korea Friendship Night" was held in Gyeongju to celebrate the 33rd anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea and to support the upcoming APEC meeting [1][3] - Chinese Consul General Chen Ribo emphasized the historical ties between Gyeongju and China, highlighting significant cultural exchanges over the centuries [3] - The event served as an important opportunity for both countries to strengthen cooperation and deepen mutual trust, with both sides expressing commitment to enhancing local exchanges and friendship [3] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The "China-Korea Friendship Night" was organized by the Chinese Consulate in Busan, Gyeongju City Government, and the Seoul Chinese Cultural Center, attended by over 300 participants [1][3] Diplomatic Significance - The event marked the 33rd anniversary of China-South Korea diplomatic relations, showcasing the achievements and mutual development over the years [3] - The upcoming APEC leaders' informal meeting in Gyeongju is seen as a significant opportunity for advancing the strategic partnership between China and South Korea [3] Cultural and Historical Context - Gyeongju is recognized as a historical city that has witnessed a millennium of friendship between China and Korea, with notable historical figures contributing to cultural exchanges [3] - The event was described as a symbol of deepening cooperation and mutual trust between the two nations, with a focus on promoting local exchanges and friendship [3]