Report Information - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are trending weakly due to increased production and slower exports. There is pressure to test the annual line support at 4,350 ringgit. After effective correction and risk release, there is a chance for the futures to stabilize and strengthen, supported by decreased production and inventory and the hype of Indonesia's B50 policy [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There is pressure to test the 9,000 yuan mark for support, with strong support at the annual line of 8,900 yuan. After correction and stabilization, it may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil - The short - term trend of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil is strong, so there is a possibility of an increase in Dalian soybean oil. However, due to sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and the relative weakness of palm oil, the increase is expected to be limited. The 1 - month contract may face resistance at 8,250 yuan on the daily middle - rail, and if it breaks through, it may rise to 8,430 yuan on the upper - rail. If the Sino - US agreement cannot be reached on the 30th, the 1 - month contract will decline due to the bearish domestic fundamentals [4]. Oilseeds - Dalian soybean meal futures are in a narrow range between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan. The market is waiting for the result of Sino - US trade negotiations. The overall market sentiment is still cautious, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spreads - Various price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and other oils are provided, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 18 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 6 yuan/ton [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil futures prices such as palm oil 01 are 9,100 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. BMD palm oil futures are at 4,399 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.52%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [7][8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 futures are at 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures are at 50.29 cents/pound with a decline of 1.12%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [14]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, soybean meal 01 is at 2,932 yuan with a decline of 1 yuan and a decline rate of 0.03% [18]. Oilseed Price Spreads - Price spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05 and RM01 - 05, are provided. For example, M01 - 05 is 141 yuan with a daily change of - 24 yuan [19].

Market Overview - On the first day of China's holiday, global markets experienced a rally, with U.S. stocks rising across the board and the dollar index surpassing the 100 level, while Bitcoin approached the $100,000 mark. In contrast, gold prices fell nearly $90, testing the $3,200 level. This indicates that the Chinese market missed out on a significant upward movement due to a global risk appetite recovery linked to China [1]. U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump expressed a high likelihood of reaching an agreement with China. The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett also conveyed optimism regarding progress on tariff issues. Reports indicated that the U.S. has been proactively engaging with China through various channels to negotiate tariff matters [2][3]. - Despite the positive sentiment, U.S. stock market movements suggested that the market had already priced in improvements in U.S.-China trade relations. Initial gains were followed by a gradual pullback, indicating a developing "news immunity" as the market became less responsive to repeated positive signals from Trump [3]. Interest Rate Expectations - A concerning development emerged as the market began to realize that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may have been overly optimistic. The probability of a rate cut in June dropped to 58% from 68%. Recent data showed a significant increase in initial jobless claims and a decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI, which should have reinforced the necessity for a rate cut. If the market fully unwinds its rate cut bets, liquidity could tighten rapidly, increasing funding costs and exerting pressure on the stock market, credit markets, and emerging markets [3].