油脂油料产业日报 2025/08/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 12日中国宣布从8月15日起对加拿大油菜籽征收75.8%反倾销关税，意味着从加拿大的油菜籽进口面临中断，从而提高对其他油籽和植物油的需求。USDA月报下调 了美国大豆的产量以及期末库存预估，短期内CBOT大豆以及豆油均有上涨空间，在成本端提振连豆油走势。另外，中美之间的关税延续到11月上旬，四季度大豆 进口量依旧成迷，短期内利好集中发酵，提振连豆油继续上涨。主力1月合约上方看8700元压力，若无法突破的话，有技术性回调的可能。 【棕榈油】 国际市场：马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油期货继续震荡上涨，短线在出口改善的利多支撑下，仍有进一步向4500令吉附近靠近的预期，且不排除有短暂突破后冲击4580- 4600令吉的机会。随着下半月产量增长以及出口放缓的潜在利空担忧，毛棕油期货有冲高回落后反复测试4500令吉的压力。关注后市能否有效地站稳4500令吉之 上，不排除受基本面利空担忧后向下继续趋弱的风险，整体维持近强远弱的观点为主。 国内市场：大连棕榈油期货市场惯性冲高，短线 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit, facing potential downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports. A break below 4,200 ringgit may open a new downward space towards 4,000 ringgit. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are strongly oscillating at high levels between 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. Affected by the potential decline of Malaysian palm oil and rising domestic port inventories, there is downward pressure. Support levels are at around 8,600 and 8,500 yuan. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, currently in a phased adjustment [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Market demand has improved recently. Based on export news, the market anticipates a price increase, leading some traders to show purchasing interest. Factory sales exceeded 30,000 tons yesterday. Some regions have relatively low inventory pressure with rising basis quotes, while regions like Guangxi still face inventory issues affecting basis quotes. In the short - term, basis quotes will fluctuate slightly and may rise as domestic demand increases [3]. - **Bean Meal**: China is accelerating the purchase of South American soybeans to ensure Q4 supply. Brazilian premiums are rising, supporting import costs. Near delivery, institutions are accelerating position transfers, with the short - term 09 contract oscillating around 3,000 yuan. Spot prices at oil mills have increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. In August, due to Sino - US tariff concerns, terminal point - pricing risk - aversion has increased, improving trading volume. Mid - August may see a peak in oil mill bean meal inventories, and the market is brewing bullish sentiment, with many looking to buy far - month contracts at low prices [16]. 2. Price and Spread Information Oils - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 8,968 yuan/ton with a 0.4% increase; 05 is at 8,772 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase; 09 is at 8,970 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,249 ringgit/ton with a 0.45% increase. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil price is 8,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 40 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,226 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase; 05 is at 7,848 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; 09 is at 8,274 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 54.75 cents/pound, down 2.42%. Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 18 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [12]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes [4]. Oilseeds - **Bean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is at 3,037 with a 0.03% increase; 05 is at 2,738 with a 0.11% increase; 09 is at 3,010 with a 0.33% increase. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,409, down 0.08%; 05 is at 2,375 with a 0.04% increase; 09 is at 2,675, down 0.89%. - **Spreads**: Spreads like M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are presented with their respective price changes [17][18][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,200 ringgit, facing downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, and are expected to decline towards 4,000 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level oscillatory adjustment, likely to weaken and test the 8,500 yuan support level. If it stabilizes above 8,500 yuan, there may be a short - term rebound, but the future trend depends on Malaysian palm oil [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Many factories are experiencing severe inventory overstock, causing traders to lower basis quotes. However, the basis of forward contracts is supported as there have been no recent US soybean purchases in the domestic market, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is uncertain. Currently, soybean oil has a price advantage among the three major domestic oils, and the basis quotes are expected to rebound after the inventory overstock issue is resolved [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Despite the pressure on spot supply, high Brazilian premiums and the lag in fourth - quarter ship purchases have led some institutions to turn to far - month contracts. Before the Sino - US negotiations next month, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal faces resistance at the 3,000 yuan integer mark. The spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose due to abundant imported soybeans from May to July and accumulated oil - mill inventories [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,692 yuan/ton, 8,472 yuan/ton, and 8,708 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.3%, - 0.24%, and - 0.46%. BMD palm oil futures rose 0.96% to 4,186 ringgit/ton. The basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [8]. - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,000 yuan/ton, 7,654 yuan/ton, and 8,042 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.13%, - 0.07%, and - 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures rose 0.76% to 54.36 cents/pound. The basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 88 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [13]. - **Oil Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, with different price changes and percentage changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is 226 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 758 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Oilseed Futures Price**: Futures prices of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) are 3,011, 2,700, and 2,977 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 2, and - 1. Futures prices of rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) are 2,309, 2,300, and 2,653 respectively, with daily changes of - 3, - 1, and - 2. CBOT soybeans closed at 1,002.5, unchanged [18]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spreads such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are provided, with different price changes. For example, M01 - 05 is 313, down 5; RM01 - 05 is 11, up 13 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil prices gap down due to OPEC+ exceeding market expectations with its August production increase plan, affecting biofuel raw materials and causing a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. Malaysian palm oil exports increased and production declined in June, with inventory expected to slightly decrease, but the Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation due to the weakening of crude oil and external oils and fats. [6][7] - In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to the off - season demand and weakened import cost support. The arrival speed of imported palm oil is accelerating, and the domestic price follows the external market with mainly rigid demand. Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range as the decline in domestic inventory and the uncertainty of subsequent imports still support the price. [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of July 2, the 2024/25 soybean harvest in Argentina reached 100%. The BAGE maintained the soybean production forecast at 50.3 million tons, a 15% increase from the five - year average due to ideal weather conditions during the planting season. [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Brazilian 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected production, compared with 64% at the beginning of June. The sales progress was lower than 77.5% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.1%. [2] - In June, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 1.011 billion tons, a record high. It is expected that the oil mills will maintain a high operating rate in July, with a crushing volume of about 950 million tons. [2] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than expected. The operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly from July 5 to July 11. [3] Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the increase in OPEC+ production in August exceeds market expectations, causing international crude oil prices to gap down, which affects biofuel raw materials and leads to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation. [6][7] - Domestically, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A commodity research institution estimates Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season to be 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. However, the continuous dry conditions in Manitoba need to be closely monitored as they pose a risk to yield potential [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month, resulting in a reduction of the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a previous month was RM3,926.59 per ton with a 9.5% tariff, while the current month's reference price is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 0.25%, while that in Sabah decreased by 13.27%, Sarawak decreased by 4.56%, and East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month reached 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the same period last month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Canada Rapeseed - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate [1]. - Manitoba has a precipitation gap of about 30 mm in the past two weeks, and the precipitation gap in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expected to reach 24 mm in the next 10 days, which poses a risk to yield potential [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil, reducing the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a certain month is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month increased by 6.8% compared to the same period last month [1]. Price Information - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 19 - 25, 2025, are provided, showing a general downward trend [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts the export prospects of US soybeans, providing overall support for US soybean futures prices. Domestically, the recent significant increase in the operation rate of domestic oil mills is expected to accelerate the inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Affected by the recent strength of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] - Oils: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a weak and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil closed higher. The Sino - US easing signal boosts the performance of soybean oil. The domestic soybean - related supply is gradually recovering with the increase in soybean arrivals, and soybean oil is expected to gradually accumulate inventory in the later period. The May Malaysian palm oil supply - demand data has a neutral impact on the market, and oils are expected to maintain a volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7694, 7970, 9149, 3047, 2557, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 64, - 146, - 39, 16, 11, and 26, and price change rates of - 0.82%, - 1.80%, - 3.15%, 0.53%, 0.43%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: There were changes in spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc. For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 was 50, and the previous value was 60 [1] International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3876 (ringgit/ton), 1050 (cents/bushel), 48 (cents/pound), and 294 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of - 44, - 8, 0, - 2, and price change rates of - 1.12%, - 0.76%, 0.57%, - 0.54% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. had different price change rates. For example, the price change rate of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was - 1.00% [1] - Basis: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. were 266, 480 respectively [1] - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, etc. had changes compared with the previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 648, - 121, etc., showing changes compared with the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. were 17,652, 340, 0 respectively, with some changes compared with the previous values [1] Industry Information - As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold 175.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with cumulative sales reaching 1963.45 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 128.1 million tons, and the export industry purchased 47.69 million tons [2] - From June 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.71%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1%, and the output decreased by 17.24% [2] - As of June 8, the US soybean sowing was 90% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 68% [2]