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Report Information - Report Title: Cost Drives Soybean Meal Higher, Poor Demand Leads to Decline in Edible Oils - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Edible Oils and Oilseeds [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is driven up by cost factors, while the price of edible oils drops due to poor demand [2]. - The export of US soybeans is expected to shift from speculation to actual implementation, and the pace of China's procurement will be a key factor affecting the market [104]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in October, and the B50 policy in Indonesia remains uncertain, putting pressure on the international edible oil market [105]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Review - CBOT soybeans rose significantly this week. Positive news about China's potential purchase of US soybeans boosted market sentiment, and the main contract broke through the 1100 - cent per bushel mark [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market also trended higher. Initially, it was under pressure due to supply concerns, but later shifted to cost - driven by the rise of CBOT soybeans. The main contract tried to break through 3000 yuan per ton several times [6]. - The increase in spot prices was less than that of futures. High inventory and weak downstream demand (such as the continuous decline in hog prices) put pressure on the market, and the basis declined significantly [6]. 2. US Market - US Soybean Export - As of October 23, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. 3. South American Weather - The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather. As of Friday, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state in Brazil reached 60.05% of the expected area, higher than last year and the five - year average [24]. - As of October 23, the 2025/26 soybean sowing progress in Brazil reached 36%. Overall, the weather last week was favorable for sowing, but there were abnormal rainfall and high - temperature weather in the central - western region [24]. 4. Domestic Market - Inventory and Profit - Domestic port soybean inventory increased to 811.27 tons this weekend, and the theoretical available days for crushing were 24 days [30]. - Both spot and futures crushing margins were in a loss situation, especially the futures crushing margin loss widened [30]. - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased this week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 12.5 tons to 105.2 tons, a 13.48% increase from last week [34]. 5. Rapeseed Meal - The operating rate of rapeseed processing plants decreased significantly this week, and the weekly crushing volume decreased from 1.2 tons to 0.4 tons [43]. - The inventory of rapeseed meal remained at 0.8 tons, and the contract volume decreased by 0.1 tons to 0.7 tons, a 17.65% decrease from last week [43]. Part 2: Edible Oils Market Analysis 1. Market Review - US soybean oil oscillated downward this week. The rise of US soybean meal led to active closing of the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage, and the decline of international crude oil and uncertain demand for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry also put pressure on the price [49]. - Malaysian palm oil fell more significantly. The increase in production and decline in exports, along with the slowdown in demand from major importers like India, led to a continuous decline in prices [49]. - Domestic palm oil led the decline in the edible oil market, while soybean oil declined relatively less and remained in an oscillating range [49]. 2. International Edible Oil Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and the output increased by 2.78% month - on - month [52]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 showed different trends according to different institutions' data, with AmSpec reporting a 0.27% month - on - month decrease and SGS reporting a 23.8% increase compared to the same period last month [52]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 - 57 million tons [52]. 3. Domestic Edible Oil Inventory - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China increased by 7.42 tons to 263.10 tons, a 2.90% increase from last week and a 17.39% increase year - on - year [67]. - The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased, with soybean oil increasing by 6.74 tons to 148.45 tons, a 4.76% increase from last week [67]. 4. Edible Oil Basis and Spread - The basis of different edible oils showed different trends, and the futures spread between different edible oils also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread rebounded significantly this week [81]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bearish [103]. - For soybean oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For palm oil, short - term indicators are bearish, medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bullish [103]. - For rapeseed oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [103]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: In the international market, the export of US soybeans will shift from speculation to actual implementation, and China's procurement pace is crucial. In the domestic market, high inventory, low demand, and losses in crushing margins may limit the upside potential of soybean meal prices [104]. - Edible Oils: In the international market, the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy will put pressure on the market. In the domestic market, edible oils are following the international trend, and the market is waiting for new positive news [105].

Report Information - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are trending weakly due to increased production and slower exports. There is pressure to test the annual line support at 4,350 ringgit. After effective correction and risk release, there is a chance for the futures to stabilize and strengthen, supported by decreased production and inventory and the hype of Indonesia's B50 policy [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There is pressure to test the 9,000 yuan mark for support, with strong support at the annual line of 8,900 yuan. After correction and stabilization, it may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil - The short - term trend of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil is strong, so there is a possibility of an increase in Dalian soybean oil. However, due to sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and the relative weakness of palm oil, the increase is expected to be limited. The 1 - month contract may face resistance at 8,250 yuan on the daily middle - rail, and if it breaks through, it may rise to 8,430 yuan on the upper - rail. If the Sino - US agreement cannot be reached on the 30th, the 1 - month contract will decline due to the bearish domestic fundamentals [4]. Oilseeds - Dalian soybean meal futures are in a narrow range between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan. The market is waiting for the result of Sino - US trade negotiations. The overall market sentiment is still cautious, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spreads - Various price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and other oils are provided, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 18 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 6 yuan/ton [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil futures prices such as palm oil 01 are 9,100 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. BMD palm oil futures are at 4,399 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.52%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [7][8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 futures are at 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures are at 50.29 cents/pound with a decline of 1.12%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [14]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, soybean meal 01 is at 2,932 yuan with a decline of 1 yuan and a decline rate of 0.03% [18]. Oilseed Price Spreads - Price spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05 and RM01 - 05, are provided. For example, M01 - 05 is 141 yuan with a daily change of - 24 yuan [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: International market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures continue to rise with short - term pressure near previous highs, waiting for Wednesday's MPOB report. Inventory estimates for end - September range from 2.05 to 2.34 million tons. Depending on the report and export data, it will choose a new direction. Domestic market - Dalian palm oil futures had a gap - up opening after the holiday, with a chance to continue rising. It should be watched whether it can break through previous highs. If not, there is a risk of a pull - back and filling the gap. The view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the long holiday, traders need to replenish stocks, which boosts the Dalian soybean oil market. However, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and imports from October to December are large. Factory inventories are unlikely to decrease rapidly, and some factories are exporting due to potential over - stock. The upside of Dalian soybean oil is limited. The January contract is near the daily middle - rail at 8,310 yuan. If it fails to break through, it may fall; if it breaks through, the upper target is the daily upper - rail at 8,520 yuan, but continuous rise is unlikely [4]. - **Bean Meal**: The Dalian bean meal 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,930 - 2,960 yuan, affected by Sino - US trade negotiation expectations and ample supply. Spot prices are in the 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton range. After the holiday, oil mills resume production, but feed enterprises' high inventory and slow inventory reduction of oil mills limit the spot price rebound [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9,570 yuan/ton with a 3.71% increase; 05 is at 9,360 yuan/ton with a 3.59% increase; 09 is at 8,916 yuan/ton with a 3.29% increase. BMD palm oil is at 4,571 ringgit/ton with a 0.57% increase. The POGO spread is at 513.167 dollars/ton with a decrease of 1.168 dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,332 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; 05 is at 8,074 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase; 09 is at 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. CBOT soybean oil is at 51.34 cents/pound with a 1.74% increase. The domestic first - grade soybean - 24 - degree palm oil spread is - 820 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inter - month and Inter - variety Spreads**: For palm oil, P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 404 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 596 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. For soybean oil, Y 1 - 5 is 244 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 is - 312 yuan/ton with no change. Y - P spreads and Y/M, OI/RM spreads are also provided [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price - **Bean Meal**: Bean meal 01 closes at 2,939 with an 11 - point increase and a 0.38% rise; 05 closes at 2,755 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.62% rise; 09 closes at 2,863 with a 16 - point increase and a 0.56% rise [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2,435 with a 14 - point increase and a 0.58% rise; 05 closes at 2,334 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.73% rise; 09 closes at 2,415 with a 12 - point increase and a 0.5% rise [19]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: Closes at 1,029.75 with no change [19]. - **Offshore RMB**: Closes at 7.1527 with a 0.0096 increase and a 0.13% rise [19]. 3.3. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Bean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 184 with a 6 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a 1 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 76 with a 5 - point increase [20][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 81 with a 5 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is - 20 with a 2 - point decrease [20][22]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a 10 - point increase; the futures spread is 504 with a 3 - point decrease [22].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating at a high level, facing resistance at 4,500 ringgit. After a brief adjustment and stabilization, supported by overall bullish fundamentals, the futures may approach 4,500 ringgit. After effectively breaking through and holding above 4,500 ringgit, with potential bullish factors such as limited inventory growth at the end of August and continued export growth in September, there is a chance for an upward trend. Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level consolidation. After several unsuccessful attempts to break through 9,500 yuan, it is expected to strengthen further with the support of the rebound in Malaysian palm oil. After breaking through and stabilizing above 9,500 yuan, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and could even hit new highs. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is weighing on CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, affecting the domestic oil market. Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but downstream consumption is increasing as traders stock up for the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of Dalian soybean oil is a narrow - range oscillation. The January contract will continue to oscillate around 8,300 yuan. After the adjustment, based on the rise of international vegetable oils and the start of domestic consumption, the price may rise to around 8,500 yuan [4]. - **Bean Meal**: In the spot market, as oil mills in North China and other regions fulfill contracts normally, trading is light at the beginning of the month, and traders' quotes are down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The impact of this week's imported soybean auction on the spot market is limited. Traders tend to replenish stocks at low prices during the oscillation. Massive trading may not occur until the middle of the month. The short - term spot price will fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Price Information 2.1 Oil Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | 246 yuan/ton | - 4 | | P 5 - 9 | - 204 yuan/ton | - 8 | | P 9 - 1 | - 42 yuan/ton | 12 | | Y - P 01 | - 1,066 yuan/ton | - 30 | | Y - P 05 | - 1,108 yuan/ton | - 28 | | Y - P 09 | - 958 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 1 - 5 | 288 yuan/ton | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | - 354 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 9 - 1 | 66 yuan/ton | 24 | | OI 1 - 5 | 169 yuan/ton | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | - 353 yuan/ton | - 58 | | OI 9 - 1 | 184 yuan/ton | 55 | | Y/M 01 | 2.7397 | 0.23% | | Y/M 05 | 2.8712 | 0.32% | | Y/M 09 | 2.8017 | 0.32% | | OI/RM 01 | 3.9064 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 05 | 4.0088 | 0.1% | | OI/RM 09 | 3.8974 | - 0.31% | [5] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,368 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,148 yuan/ton | - 0.31% | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,346 yuan/ton | - 0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,434 ringgit/ton | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | 9,300 yuan/ton | - 80 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | - 42 yuan/ton | 32 | | POGO | 492.819 dollars/ton | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread | - 26.73 dollars/ton | - 12.5 | [7][8] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | 8,366 yuan/ton | 0.52% | | Soybean Oil 05 | 8,070 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Soybean Oil 09 | 8,454 yuan/ton | 0.47% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.5 cents/pound | 0.77% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | 8,490 yuan/ton | 70 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | 64 yuan/ton | - 8 | | BOHO (Weekly) | 56.202 dollars/barrel | - 9.3588 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil Spread | - 750 yuan/ton | - 70 | [13] 2.4 Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,066 | 16 | 0.52% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,821 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,020 | 14 | 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,521 | 21 | 0.84% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | 12 | 0.5% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,562 | 9 | 0.35% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,040 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1395 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [18] 2.5 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 196 | - 6 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | 106 | - 1 | | RM05 - 09 | - 159 | - 25 | | RM09 - 01 | 53 | 26 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,020 | 0 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 30 | 4 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,508 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 8 | 5 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 512 | 8 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 550 | 9 | [19][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to continue to rise in the short - term, potentially approaching 4500 ringgit, with a chance of briefly breaking through and reaching 4580 - 4600 ringgit. However, due to potential production growth and export slowdown in the second half of the month, there is a risk of a pull - back. The overall view is near - term strength and long - term weakness. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures have the potential to continue rising after breaking through 9500 yuan, possibly reaching 10,000 yuan. It is crucial to monitor whether they can effectively stay above 9500 yuan [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: China's decision to impose a 75.8% anti - dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed from August 15 will increase the demand for other oilseeds and vegetable oils. The USDA monthly report has lowered the forecast for US soybean production and ending stocks, which will boost the prices of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil in the short term, and also support the price of Dalian soybean oil. The continuation of Sino - US tariffs until early November makes the fourth - quarter soybean import volume uncertain. The main January contract may face resistance at 8700 yuan, and if it fails to break through, a technical correction may occur [4]. - **Oilseeds (Bean and Rapeseed Meal)**: The US Department of Agriculture's report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, reducing the new - season production forecast and benefiting South American soybean exports. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has led to a limit - up in rapeseed meal futures, also boosting the price of soybean meal futures. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the main contract of Dalian soybean meal can reach the resistance range of 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Spreads - **Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads of Oils**: The report provides price spreads and their daily changes for various oil contracts, such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 318 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 66 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 920 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 122 yuan [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - **Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have increased, with the 01 contract at 9490 yuan/ton (up 1%), the 05 contract at 9170 yuan/ton (up 1.01%), and the 09 contract at 9424 yuan/ton (up 0.66%). The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4459 ringgit/ton (up 1.29%). The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 9470 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 42 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - **Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) have also increased, with the 01 contract at 8576 yuan/ton (up 2.33%), the 05 contract at 8118 yuan/ton (up 1.89%), and the 09 contract at 8592 yuan/ton (up 2.24%). The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 53.07 cents/pound (up 0.11%). The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8640 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 6 yuan/ton [13]. 3.4 Oilseed Futures Prices - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Prices**: Futures prices of bean and rapeseed meal have generally increased. For example, the bean meal 01 contract is at 3163 yuan/ton (up 2.33%), and the rapeseed meal 01 contract is at 2688 yuan/ton (up 4.92%). The price of CBOT yellow soybeans remains unchanged at 1032.25, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1852 (down 0.12%) [16]. 3.5 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads**: The report provides price spreads and their daily changes for different contracts of bean and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 294 yuan with a daily increase of 4 yuan, and RM01 - 05 is 100 yuan with a daily increase of 52 yuan [17].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit, facing potential downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports. A break below 4,200 ringgit may open a new downward space towards 4,000 ringgit. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are strongly oscillating at high levels between 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. Affected by the potential decline of Malaysian palm oil and rising domestic port inventories, there is downward pressure. Support levels are at around 8,600 and 8,500 yuan. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, currently in a phased adjustment [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Market demand has improved recently. Based on export news, the market anticipates a price increase, leading some traders to show purchasing interest. Factory sales exceeded 30,000 tons yesterday. Some regions have relatively low inventory pressure with rising basis quotes, while regions like Guangxi still face inventory issues affecting basis quotes. In the short - term, basis quotes will fluctuate slightly and may rise as domestic demand increases [3]. - **Bean Meal**: China is accelerating the purchase of South American soybeans to ensure Q4 supply. Brazilian premiums are rising, supporting import costs. Near delivery, institutions are accelerating position transfers, with the short - term 09 contract oscillating around 3,000 yuan. Spot prices at oil mills have increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. In August, due to Sino - US tariff concerns, terminal point - pricing risk - aversion has increased, improving trading volume. Mid - August may see a peak in oil mill bean meal inventories, and the market is brewing bullish sentiment, with many looking to buy far - month contracts at low prices [16]. 2. Price and Spread Information Oils - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 8,968 yuan/ton with a 0.4% increase; 05 is at 8,772 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase; 09 is at 8,970 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,249 ringgit/ton with a 0.45% increase. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil price is 8,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 40 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,226 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase; 05 is at 7,848 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; 09 is at 8,274 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 54.75 cents/pound, down 2.42%. Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 18 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [12]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes [4]. Oilseeds - **Bean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is at 3,037 with a 0.03% increase; 05 is at 2,738 with a 0.11% increase; 09 is at 3,010 with a 0.33% increase. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,409, down 0.08%; 05 is at 2,375 with a 0.04% increase; 09 is at 2,675, down 0.89%. - **Spreads**: Spreads like M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are presented with their respective price changes [17][18][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,200 ringgit, facing downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, and are expected to decline towards 4,000 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level oscillatory adjustment, likely to weaken and test the 8,500 yuan support level. If it stabilizes above 8,500 yuan, there may be a short - term rebound, but the future trend depends on Malaysian palm oil [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Many factories are experiencing severe inventory overstock, causing traders to lower basis quotes. However, the basis of forward contracts is supported as there have been no recent US soybean purchases in the domestic market, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is uncertain. Currently, soybean oil has a price advantage among the three major domestic oils, and the basis quotes are expected to rebound after the inventory overstock issue is resolved [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Despite the pressure on spot supply, high Brazilian premiums and the lag in fourth - quarter ship purchases have led some institutions to turn to far - month contracts. Before the Sino - US negotiations next month, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal faces resistance at the 3,000 yuan integer mark. The spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose due to abundant imported soybeans from May to July and accumulated oil - mill inventories [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,692 yuan/ton, 8,472 yuan/ton, and 8,708 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.3%, - 0.24%, and - 0.46%. BMD palm oil futures rose 0.96% to 4,186 ringgit/ton. The basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [8]. - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,000 yuan/ton, 7,654 yuan/ton, and 8,042 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.13%, - 0.07%, and - 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures rose 0.76% to 54.36 cents/pound. The basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 88 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [13]. - **Oil Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, with different price changes and percentage changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is 226 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 758 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Oilseed Futures Price**: Futures prices of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) are 3,011, 2,700, and 2,977 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 2, and - 1. Futures prices of rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) are 2,309, 2,300, and 2,653 respectively, with daily changes of - 3, - 1, and - 2. CBOT soybeans closed at 1,002.5, unchanged [18]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spreads such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are provided, with different price changes. For example, M01 - 05 is 313, down 5; RM01 - 05 is 11, up 13 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil prices gap down due to OPEC+ exceeding market expectations with its August production increase plan, affecting biofuel raw materials and causing a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. Malaysian palm oil exports increased and production declined in June, with inventory expected to slightly decrease, but the Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation due to the weakening of crude oil and external oils and fats. [6][7] - In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to the off - season demand and weakened import cost support. The arrival speed of imported palm oil is accelerating, and the domestic price follows the external market with mainly rigid demand. Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range as the decline in domestic inventory and the uncertainty of subsequent imports still support the price. [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of July 2, the 2024/25 soybean harvest in Argentina reached 100%. The BAGE maintained the soybean production forecast at 50.3 million tons, a 15% increase from the five - year average due to ideal weather conditions during the planting season. [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Brazilian 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected production, compared with 64% at the beginning of June. The sales progress was lower than 77.5% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.1%. [2] - In June, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 1.011 billion tons, a record high. It is expected that the oil mills will maintain a high operating rate in July, with a crushing volume of about 950 million tons. [2] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than expected. The operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly from July 5 to July 11. [3] Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the increase in OPEC+ production in August exceeds market expectations, causing international crude oil prices to gap down, which affects biofuel raw materials and leads to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation. [6][7] - Domestically, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A commodity research institution estimates Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season to be 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. However, the continuous dry conditions in Manitoba need to be closely monitored as they pose a risk to yield potential [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month, resulting in a reduction of the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a previous month was RM3,926.59 per ton with a 9.5% tariff, while the current month's reference price is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 0.25%, while that in Sabah decreased by 13.27%, Sarawak decreased by 4.56%, and East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month reached 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the same period last month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Canada Rapeseed - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate [1]. - Manitoba has a precipitation gap of about 30 mm in the past two weeks, and the precipitation gap in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expected to reach 24 mm in the next 10 days, which poses a risk to yield potential [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil, reducing the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a certain month is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month increased by 6.8% compared to the same period last month [1]. Price Information - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 19 - 25, 2025, are provided, showing a general downward trend [1].