报告导读： 中观景气分化，地缘扰动延续，原油价格大涨，有色承压；新兴科技景气延 续， PCB 出口 / 台股电子营收高速增长；下游消费仍待改善，但旅游景气淡季不淡。 原油链持续涨价，出海制造景气提升。 上周（ 03.16-03.22 ），中观景气分化，景气线索主要有： 1 ）霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻，原油价格大涨，但大宗价 格表现分化，有色价格承压； 2 ）新兴科技景气中枢进一步上移； 3 ）下游消费仍待改善，服务消费淡季不淡，地产边际回暖，但耐用品需求压力仍然较 大。 上游资源：原油价格继续大涨，有色价格显著下滑。 1 ）原油： 美伊冲突加剧，霍尔木兹海峡油运持续受阻，原油链供给扰动继续演绎。截至 03.20 ，布伦 特原油期货结算价环比 +8.8% ，但化工品价格与原油涨价趋势有所分化，国内化工品价格指数 +0.5% ，原油链化工品 PX/PTA 价格环比 -0.5%/-8.0% 。 2 ）有色： 高油价推升滞涨预期，有色价格承压 ， COMEX 黄金 /LME 铜 /LME 铝价格环比 -9.6%/-6.7%/-6.5% 。 3 ）煤炭： 煤价环比 +0.8% ，需求淡季煤价窄幅波动。 下游消费：传统消费景 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The economic performance shows a divergence, with rising oil and chemical prices while gold and copper prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The AI sector is experiencing an upward shift in its economic center, with an increase in semiconductor sales growth rates [1][2] - The real estate cycle is showing signs of marginal weakness, while tourism and export sectors remain strong [1][2] Group 2: Upstream Resources - Oil prices have surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil futures increasing by 27.9% as of March 6 [3] - The chemical price index rose by 11.9%, while the oil transportation index (BDTI) and refined oil transportation index (BCTI) increased by 54.1% and 75.7%, respectively [3] - In contrast, gold and copper prices fell by 1.7% and 2.8%, respectively, while aluminum prices rose by 9.7% due to supply constraints and increased demand for minor metals driven by AI capital expenditures [3] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The global semiconductor sales reached $82.54 billion and $22.82 billion in China in January 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.1% and 47.0%, respectively [4] - The average prices for DRAM DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 showed mixed trends, with DDR3 increasing by 8.0% and DDR4 decreasing by 3.1% [4] - The construction demand in the real estate sector has shown a marginal decline, reflecting a potential slowdown in fiscal fund disbursement [4] Group 4: Downstream Consumption - The transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 7.6% year-on-year compared to the Lunar New Year in 2025, indicating a marginal decline in real estate market activity [5] - High-end liquor demand continues to decline, with prices for premium brands like Moutai dropping by 4.9% [5] - The tourism sector remains robust, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd levels increasing by 69.7% compared to the same period last year, and service consumption prices rising significantly [5] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport volume in ten major cities increased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating strong post-holiday travel activity [6] - National road and rail freight volumes decreased by 9.3% and 0.3%, respectively, while express delivery volumes showed positive growth [6] - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 11.7%, reflecting strong domestic export activity, despite a 6.1% decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) due to geopolitical risks [6]