贝莱德《2026 年全球投资展望报告》指出，全球正处于结构性转型期，人工智能发展成为主导性颠覆性趋势，与地缘政治分化、能源转型、金融体系演变 等趋势相互交织，重塑全球投资环境，投资者需摒弃中性立场，采取主动投资策略。 报告核心围绕三大主题展开。其一 "微观即宏观"，人工智能建设规模空前，截至 2030 年全球相关资本支出目标达 5 至 8 万亿美元，主要集中于美国。虽当 前科技企业收入增长预期难以支撑合理回报率，但人工智能有望推动美国经济突破 2% 的长期增长趋势，若额外贡献 1.5% 的经济增长，可覆盖投资回报需 求，且收益将逐步扩散至全经济领域。其二 "金融杠杆进行时"，人工智能前期巨额投资与后期收益兑现的时间差，推动企业加杠杆融资，而政府高负债限 制了公共部门融资作用，公私募信用债市场成为关键融资渠道，但也加剧了金融体系脆弱性，报告因此战术性低配美国长期国债。其三 "分散投资的幻 象"，当前市场由少数核心驱动力主导，传统分散投资工具失效，标普 500 指数回报集中度显著上升，投资者需转向细分灵活的配置策略，关注私募市场和 对冲基金等非系统性回报来源。 在颠覆性趋势层面，人工智能建设面临能源、算力等物理限 ...

Core Insights - Approximately $1 trillion has flowed out of actively managed equity mutual funds this year, marking the 11th consecutive year of net outflows, while passive equity ETFs have attracted over $600 billion [1][3] - A small group of technology super stocks has generated a disproportionate amount of returns, continuing a trend observed over the past decade, which has made it increasingly difficult for active fund managers to achieve good performance [2][4] - 73% of equity mutual funds have underperformed their benchmark indices this year, the fourth highest rate since data collection began in 2007 [5][6] Fund Performance - The concentration of returns among a few tech giants has led to challenges for diversified fund managers, as only seven tech companies dominate the performance landscape [4][5] - The S&P 500 index has outperformed its equal-weighted version throughout the year, indicating a preference for large-cap stocks [5][15] - Only 27% of large-cap equity mutual funds have outperformed the market, highlighting the difficulties faced by active managers [8] Market Trends - The ongoing trend of investor withdrawals from active funds reflects a reassessment of the value of divergent investment strategies, especially when such divergence does not yield returns [4][16] - The performance of active managers has been hindered by a low participation rate in the market, with less than 20% of stocks rising in line with the broader market on many days this year [4][5] - The Nasdaq 100 index has seen its price-to-earnings ratio exceed 30, indicating high valuations that may cause concern among investors [10] Successful Strategies - Some active managers have found success by focusing on macro themes or specific sectors, such as the Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, which has outperformed benchmarks by investing in international small-cap value stocks [9][10] - The Allspring Diversified Capital Builder Fund has achieved approximately 20% returns this year by investing in semiconductor companies [10] - The VanEck Global Resources Fund has also performed well, with returns close to 40%, benefiting from demand in alternative energy, agriculture, and basic metals [10][11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the advantages of gaining international bond exposure through passive funds for fixed income diversification [1] Group 1 - The previous article emphasized the benefits of international bond exposure [1] - Active strategies are also mentioned as a means to achieve fixed income diversification [1]