国信期货白糖月报 基本面压制仍存 郑糖上方空间有限 白糖 2026 年 3 月 1 日 主要结论 白糖：国际市场来看，印度产量预估降低对于短期走势有一定支撑作用，但 是整体来看，印度国内供应仍较为充足，国内糖价也处于低位。巴西旧作生产基 本结束，制糖比仍是市场关注的重点因素，乙醇折糖价保持在 18 美分/磅之上或 才能显著作用于新榨季的制糖比上。总体来看，短期利好支撑，原糖价格或回到 14 美分/磅左右。 国内市场来看，基本面依旧压力较大，整体产糖情况并未低于预期，而主产 区销量广西明显落后，加工糖对于市场的压制明显。进口方面，1 月进口预估同 比增加。虽然市场对于配额收紧的政策预期较高，但是并未出现官方渠道的确认。 总体来看，郑糖或在政策预期下偏强运行，但是基本面压制下，上方空间有限。 国信期货研究 Page 1 操作建议：郑糖短线交易为主。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：侯雅婷 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over declining sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, have led to a rise in raw sugar futures for the first time in four days, with prices increasing by 1.2% to 16.20 cents per pound [1] - Covrig Analytics analyst Claudiu Covrig noted that despite high sugarcane crushing volumes during the peak season, ongoing reports of production declines may lead to a sudden depletion of sugarcane harvests in Brazil by Q4 [1][3] - The Brazilian government's agricultural forecasting agency, Conab, projected a total sugarcane production of 663.4 million tons for the 2025-2026 season, a 2% decrease from the previous year, with some forecasts suggesting production could fall below 600 million tons [3] Group 2 - The overall sugar price has seen a decline due to expectations of global oversupply, although the strengthening of the Brazilian real may limit this decrease by raising the minimum price threshold for ethanol [3] - The relative pricing of ethanol and raw sugar directly influences sugar production decisions, with mills adjusting their production based on the ethanol-to-sugar price ratio [3] - Current assessments of ethanol raw material prices have decreased to approximately 15.5 cents per pound, down from the previous 15 cents [4]