Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold operation rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver operation rating: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals mainly fluctuated. The US August retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.50% [1] - Trump called for faster interest rate cuts. The market priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut this time was only 3% [1] - Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude at the meeting early tomorrow and Powell's speech on future guidance. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, beware of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect leading to a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Other Key Points Tariff - related - The EU and Indonesia reached a trade agreement [1] - The US Commerce Department considered imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [1] - The US and India's trade negotiators held positive talks in New Delhi on Tuesday and agreed to step up efforts to reach a trade deal [1] Trump - related - Trump talked with Modi to ease differences on tariffs and Russian oil [2] - Netanyahu will visit the White House again at the end of this month [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen talked with Trump, and she agreed to phase out Russian oil imports and increase sanctions against Russia [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru arranged a visit to the US next week [2] - Trump arrived in the UK [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [2] - The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 20.1%, 50 basis points is 76.8%, and 75 basis points is 3.1% [2]

★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 | 110 | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属维持强势。市场定价美联储年内将连续降息三次,特朗普称鲍威尔降息幅度必须比他想得更大, 国际金价连续刷新新高，白银也已打开上方空间,上涨具备一定持续性,维持多头持有。本周重点关注美联 储降息幅度以及鲍威尔讲话对未来路径的指引。如降息符合预期，警惕出现买预期卖现实的阶段性调整。 ★周一，美国一家上诉法院拒绝了美国总统特朗普解庭美联储理事丽莎。库克的请求,这是自1913年美联储 成立以来,总统首次尝试采取此类行动。哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的裁决意味着,美联储在当地时间周二 和周三的 ...