Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold operation rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver operation rating: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals mainly fluctuated. The US August retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.50% [1] - Trump called for faster interest rate cuts. The market priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut this time was only 3% [1] - Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude at the meeting early tomorrow and Powell's speech on future guidance. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, beware of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect leading to a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Other Key Points Tariff - related - The EU and Indonesia reached a trade agreement [1] - The US Commerce Department considered imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [1] - The US and India's trade negotiators held positive talks in New Delhi on Tuesday and agreed to step up efforts to reach a trade deal [1] Trump - related - Trump talked with Modi to ease differences on tariffs and Russian oil [2] - Netanyahu will visit the White House again at the end of this month [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen talked with Trump, and she agreed to phase out Russian oil imports and increase sanctions against Russia [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru arranged a visit to the US next week [2] - Trump arrived in the UK [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [2] - The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 20.1%, 50 basis points is 76.8%, and 75 basis points is 3.1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a slightly bullish trend but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals maintained their strength. The market is pricing in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Trump stated that Powell must cut interest rates more than expected. International gold prices have continuously hit new highs, and silver has also broken through the upside, with the upward trend expected to continue. It is recommended to hold long positions. This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate cut幅度 and Powell's speech for guidance on the future path. If the rate cut meets expectations, beware of a short - term "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment [1] Other Summaries Fed - related Events - On Monday, a US appeals court rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook can temporarily stay on the Fed during the interest - rate meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Trump administration is expected to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Also on Monday, Trump - nominated Fed governor candidate Milan received enough votes for confirmation in the US Senate and will participate in the Fed's interest - rate decision this week [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by October is 23.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 73.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.1% [2] Sino - US Trade Talks - Chinese Commerce Ministry official Li Chenggang said on the 15th that in the past two days, China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state, gave full play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and had frank, in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [2]