1856年，美国食品专家Gail Borden获得真空浓缩罐装奶专利，第一次让牛奶"离开牧场"长期保存，开启 了牛奶的商品化时代。 如今，距离乳业商品化开端整整过去了170年，可以看到，全球乳业产业链为从"牧场到餐桌"一次次突 破技术和变革，推动人类饮食文明跃迁。近年来，不管是产业链上还是消费端，全球乳业各种重磅消息 密集释放。 在这个时间节点上，1月19日，作为中国乳业高端鲜奶市场的一张金名片，君乐宝乳业集团股份有限公 司（下称"君乐宝"）顺势向港交所递交了主板上市申请，向全球资本亮出多条快速增长赛道中国玩家的 成绩单。 《国际金融报》记者注意到，招股书显示，按2024年中国市场零售额计，君乐宝在中国综合性乳制品企 业中排名第三，稳居第一梯队，仅次于伊利和蒙牛两大巨头。在高端鲜奶等部分细分领域中，君乐宝甚 至实现了对行业龙头的超越。 盈利能力显著提升 从招股书披露的财报来看，君乐宝近年来做到了规模与速度并重。君乐宝集团总收入从2023年的175亿 元增长至2024年的198亿元，2025年1月—9月达151亿元，保持收入稳健增长态势。 更值得关注的是其盈利能力的显著提升。通过全产业链一体化运营、低温液奶产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and competitive positioning of Junlebao Dairy Group in the Chinese dairy market, particularly in the high-end fresh milk segment, as it prepares for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][4]. Financial Performance - Junlebao's total revenue is projected to grow from 17.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.8 billion yuan in 2024, with 15.1 billion yuan achieved in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [4]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 600 million yuan in 2023 to 1.16 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 940 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with the adjusted net profit margin increasing from 3.4% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and further to 6.2% in 2025 [4]. Market Potential - The Chinese dairy market is projected to reach a scale of 653.5 billion yuan in 2024, with per capita dairy consumption at 40.5 kg, less than one-third of the global average, indicating significant long-term growth potential [4]. - The penetration rate of low-temperature liquid milk is expected to increase from 25.3% in 2024 to 31.8% by 2029, representing a key growth avenue [4]. Competitive Positioning - Junlebao has established a leading position in the high-end fresh milk market, achieving a market share of 24% in 2024, surpassing competitors like Mengniu and Yili [5]. - The brand "Jianchun" in the low-temperature yogurt segment has successfully created a niche with its "zero sugar" positioning, becoming the leading brand in this category [5]. Operational Strategy - Junlebao's competitive advantage stems from its integrated operations across the dairy supply chain, including modernized farms and production facilities, with a self-sufficiency rate of 66% for milk sources, the highest among major dairy companies in China [7]. - The company has invested heavily in R&D, establishing a leading research platform that collaborates with top research institutions, enhancing its product innovation capabilities [7][8]. Market Expansion - Junlebao has achieved a nationwide sales network covering 31 provincial-level administrative regions and approximately 2,200 districts and counties, representing about 77% of the total county-level administrative areas in China [8]. - The company is also expanding internationally, with products entering markets in Hong Kong and Macau, and plans to leverage these regions as a springboard for further expansion into Southeast Asia [9]. Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be primarily allocated for factory construction, capacity expansion, brand marketing, and enhancing R&D and digitalization efforts, supporting Junlebao's national expansion and international strategy [9].

乳业产业链近况更新 20260115 摘要 2026 年乳制品消费行情好转，总产奶量与去年持平，约 830-840 万吨， 大型牧场单产提升和社会化牧场去产能并存，伊利蒙牛自有奶源发展未 受限，总供应量稳定。 徐州牧场供伊利奶价约 3.45-3.48 元/公斤（含运费 0.17 元），内蒙古 地区奶价较低，约 2.83-2.86 元/公斤，存在区域差异。 2026 年上半年伊利曾限量收购社会牧场鲜奶，配额约 75%，10 月起 缓解，11 月和 12 月恢复全额收购，预计春节后仍可能限量供应 4 个月。 北方散奶价格从去年初 2.4 元/公斤涨至 3.2 元/公斤后回落，目前稳定 在 2.8-2.9 元/公斤；南方散奶价格较高，10 月以来维持在 3.1-3.7 元/ 公斤，因伊利蒙牛销售好转，小乳品厂竞争加剧。 肉牛价格企稳，淘汰牛价格上涨，好的淘汰牛可卖到 21 元/公斤，养后 备牛不再亏损，一头成母牛淘汰利润约 8,000 元。 南方饲料成本约 1.85 元/公斤，现金流成本 2.6-2.7 元/公斤；北方饲料 成本约 1.63 元/公斤，现金流成本约 2.3 元/公斤，饲料价格下降使大部 分社会化牧场 ...