信达证券 2025 年 7 月"十大金股"组合 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 30 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor 策略首席分析师 ] 职业编号：S1500521060001 邮箱：fanjituo@cindasc.com 刘旺 传媒互联网联席首席分析师 职业编号：S1500522110006 邮箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 程丽丽 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 李春驰 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy aims to maintain expansion amidst market fluctuations, focusing on revenue and profit growth, with a strategic plan to double net profit margin over five years [2][25]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, New Dairy reported revenue of 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.93%, primarily due to the exclusion of Chongqing New Niu Han Hong Industrial from consolidated revenue [4]. - Liquid milk revenue for New Dairy in 2024 was 9.836 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.83% year-on-year [4]. - In Q1 2025, New Dairy's revenue grew by 0.42% to 2.625 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 48.46% to 133 million yuan [5]. Market Trends and Competition - The overall dairy market is facing challenges, with Nielsen IQ reporting a 2.7% decline in dairy sales for 2024 [2]. - Major competitors like Yili and Mengniu are experiencing significant declines in liquid milk revenue, with Yili's liquid milk revenue dropping by 12.32% to 75.003 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The low-temperature fresh milk market remains relatively stable, with a 0.4% year-on-year growth in 2024, contrasting with a 7.5% decline in overall liquid milk sales [8][9]. Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy's growth is attributed to its focus on the low-temperature fresh milk segment, which has shown resilience and growth potential [8]. - The company has introduced a variety of products, including high-end fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt, with high-end fresh milk achieving double-digit growth in 2024 [16]. - New Dairy is expanding its distribution channels, including over 500 "24-hour fresh milk" stores and partnerships with major retailers like Sam's Club and Hema [17]. Future Directions - New Dairy is exploring new growth avenues, including expanding into the beverage market and enhancing its product offerings [22]. - The company is also considering international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging resources from New Hope Group [24].

Group 1: E-commerce Sales Growth - The "618" shopping festival is projected to reach a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [2] - The duration of this year's "618" event has been extended from May 13 to June 18, compared to last year's May 20 to June 18, which may amplify this year's growth [2] - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, driven by the "618" promotions and trade-in subsidies [2] Group 2: Dairy Industry Performance - Yili has increasingly focused on the "618" event, reporting a 12.3% year-on-year growth in user purchases on major e-commerce platforms during this period [5] - Yili's infant nutrition products saw a growth of over 33%, while its adult nutrition products topped the e-commerce sales charts [5] - Despite the growth, Yili's revenue in 2024 was 115.78 billion yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, with liquid milk revenue declining by 3.1% [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The overall demand in the dairy industry is contracting, with a 2.7% year-on-year decline in total sales across all channels in 2024 [10] - The infant formula market is shifting towards high-end products, with the ultra-high-end segment growing by 13.3% in early 2025, while other segments are experiencing declines [15] - Major brands like Danone and FrieslandCampina reported significant growth in their high-end infant formula products in 2024, indicating a trend towards premiumization in the market [16] Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Discounts in the infant formula market are limited, with brands like Feihe offering minimal promotions, contrasting sharply with aggressive discounting strategies seen in other sectors [13][14] - The fresh milk market is also experiencing limited discounts, with ongoing price wars among brands, but demand remains stable due to supply chain constraints [19][20]

在消费升级趋势下，鲜奶市场快速增长，但短保质期、高配送效率需求仍是行业痛点。近日，供应链龙头企业蜀海与乳业巨头君乐宝达成战略合作，依托 蜀海全国智能化仓配网络，助力君乐宝高端鲜奶品牌"悦鲜活"实现更高效、更安全的全国配送，为行业提供短保冷链解决方案新范本。 行业痛点倒逼供应链升级 鲜奶作为高周转、短保（通常15-20天）的品类，对供应链的时效性和稳定性要求极高。传统经销模式存在仓配分散、冷链标准不统一、数据割裂等问 题，导致产品损耗率高、食安风险增加。君乐宝"悦鲜活"作为国内高端鲜奶市场占有率第一的品牌，凭借INF超瞬时杀菌技术和优质奶源，深受消费者青 睐，但其19天的黄金保鲜期对供应链提出更高挑战。 此次合作，蜀海依托覆盖全国90%重点城市的40个仓储中心及多温层（冷冻、冷藏、常温）管理能力，为君乐宝构建12个核心仓枢纽（北京、杭州、重 庆、郑州、广深等），实现"工厂—蜀海仓—门店"极短链路。其智能调度系统可优化库存周转至5.3天，鲜奶"4小时出仓"，配合高规格冷链车与全程温 控，确保产品新鲜度。 此外，蜀海严苛的食安体系（87项检测标准、冬奥会151天0事故记录）为鲜奶品质保驾护航，自研数智化系统则实现库 ...

文：向善财经 25年过半，距离君乐宝22年喊出IPO已经过去近三年了。距离当时承诺的25年完成IPO也仅剩不到半年时间。 目前，君乐宝上市的进展，除了今年1月，发布了第四期《关于君乐宝乳业集团股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并上市辅导工作进展报告》，提及了目前存 在的主要问题之外，再无其他有效的进展。 要知道，君乐宝上市自23年12月28日就启动了，当时河北证监局网站披露了中金公司《关于君乐宝乳业集团股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并上市辅导备案 报告》，距今已经过去了一年半的时间。 根据有关统计，在A股主板上市，递交招股书到上市通常需6-18个月审核期，招股说明书公布之后最快2个月就可以上市。 进度如此之慢，25年就剩半年了，不禁让人猜测，君乐宝还能如期实现上市的夙愿吗？ //市场下行难定价 从公告来看，君乐宝的上市计划从23年底开始，但实际上，从19就开始的融资历程来看，脱离蒙牛在获得自由身的那一刻，计划很可能就开始了，这条路走 了远不止500天这么短。 那为何君乐宝的IPO远低于平均速度，我们大胆假设，小心求证，上市之路之所以坎坷存在两点客观原因： 受这几年人口出生率以及过去产能扩张的影响，市场由增量和转变为了 ...

5月20日，在第27届中国国际焙烤展期间，君乐宝乳业集团与法国颂味佳集团旗下西诺迪斯合作推出38%乳脂蔻曼纯净稀奶油，这款完全零添加的高端稀奶 油产自君乐宝。在业内看来，长期以来国内高端稀奶油、黄油等国产化率不足30%，蔻曼纯净稀奶油不仅开创了高端稀奶油本地化研发生产的先河，也标志 着以君乐宝为代表的国内头部乳企开始向B端深加工领域探索国产替代的机遇。 "这是一款配料表非常简单的稀奶油，只有生牛乳三个字。"君乐宝乳业集团董事长兼总裁魏立华在发布会上透露，但38%纯净稀奶油背后却并不简单，其不 但满足了国内消费者对健康、高品质的乳品的需求，也代表着中国奶油技术的新突破。 近年来，中国乳制品行业正经历从C端消费驱动向B端产业协同的转型浪潮。随着液态奶市场趋于饱和，烘焙、咖啡、冷饮、新茶饮等餐饮赛道的爆发式增 长，催生了千亿级B端乳制品需求，持续发力的君乐宝正在成为其中的领跑者。 38%纯净稀奶油：纯净但不简单 据了解，这款蔻曼38%纯净稀奶油的核心优势一方面在于"洁净标签"——配料仅含100%生牛乳，完全剔除稳定剂、乳化剂等添加剂，实现了"零添加"。正常 情况下，传统稀奶油为延长保质期和增强稳定性，普遍会使用部分 ...

Restaurant Industry Overview - The total revenue of the national catering industry in April increased by 5.2% year-on-year to 416.7 billion yuan, slightly higher than the retail sales growth of 5.1% [1] - However, revenue from catering enterprises above designated size grew by only 3.7% to 123 billion yuan, indicating greater external pressure on larger businesses [1] - The number of restaurant closures has significantly increased, with 4.09 million closures in 2024, resulting in a closure rate of 61.2%, surpassing 2023 levels [1] - Most restaurant categories, except for Western cuisine (up 6%), bakery and desserts (up 5%), and Korean cuisine (up 1%), experienced a decline in store efficiency [1] Pricing and Profitability - Major restaurant brands, including Xiaocaiyuan, Jiumaojiu, and Haidilao, reported a noticeable decline in average customer spending [1] - In Q1 2025, brands like KFC and Pizza Hut also saw further decreases in customer spending [1] - The trend of lowering customer prices is seen as a necessary step for survival in the restaurant business [2] - Profit margins are declining, with Jiumaojiu's revenue at 6.074 billion yuan (up 1.47%) but net profit down 87.69% to 55.81 million yuan, and Xiaobuhua's revenue at 4.755 billion yuan (down 19.65%) with a net loss of 401 million yuan, a 100.88% increase in losses [3] Industry Transformation - The restaurant market is at a critical transformation stage, with companies focusing on cost reduction across the entire supply chain, including store renovations and labor costs [1][4]

发布会上，悦鲜活重磅发布全面升级的"四维进阶 全链锁鲜"技术创新成果，即源头选鲜、瞬时锁 鲜、去杂凝鲜、隔氧储鲜全产业链锁鲜体系。 这一举动意味着，悦鲜活品牌将基于国际化战略，从本土创新向世界级鲜奶品牌发展。 近年来，得益于消费升级、冷链基建完善等因素，鲜奶市场迎来爆发式增长，成为乳制品行业的核 心增长引擎。 悦鲜活鲜奶于2019年正式上市销售，不到五年即成为全国高端鲜奶领先品牌。根据调研机构尼尔森 数据，悦鲜活在高端鲜奶的市场占有率已达37.3%，在高端瓶装鲜奶的市场占有率更是高达49%，全国每 卖出两瓶高端瓶装鲜奶就有一瓶是悦鲜活。 而越来越多的奶企们将旗下鲜奶品牌进军香港市场作为新一轮产品、渠道出海的重要战略步骤，借 此作为扩展国际新市场增量的试炼，打造企业的第二增长曲线。 悦鲜活目前已进入香港惠康、百佳、7-11等1500余家零售终端，覆盖商超、便利店、咖啡店等全生 活场景，赢得大量香港消费者的认可与青睐。 5月18日，中国高端鲜奶领先品牌君乐宝悦鲜活在香港维多利亚港K11 Musea举行"入港销售暨国际化 战略发布会"，宣布正式启动国际化战略，奥运冠军、国际泳联裁判郭晶晶以"悦鲜活全球品牌代言人"新 ...

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜闫思羽 编辑｜李文贤 从品类创新定义的重新书写，到功能需求的具体化满足，再到AI对全产业链的重塑，2025年的饮料行业正站在变革的 临界点。 在2025年FBIF食品饮料创新论坛上，全球行业领袖齐聚上海，围绕饮料创新的未来展开深度探讨。 在过去一年内，很多消费者在选购饮料时将是否健康视为最优先考量的因素。益普索咨询饮料行业增长官程皓介绍， 97%的人过去12月内喝过健康饮料。 据介绍，中国无糖、无热量的饮料赛道以高增长率迅速发展，功效性饮品的已经成为新蓝海的风口。 正如里斯品类创新咨询中国区副总裁冯华青所言：创新不是选项，而是生存的必然。当健康、科技与文化在三重维度 深度交织，饮料不再只是解渴的载体，而是成为个体生活方式的价值投射。 品类创新：存量时代的终极增长战略 品类的创新是存量时代企业增长的终极战略。里斯品类创新咨询中国区副总裁冯华青在开场演讲中直言。 他援引君乐宝乳业的案例：通过打造简醇零蔗糖酸奶和悦鲜活常保鲜牛奶两大新品类，君乐宝从十亿级企业跃升为百 亿级巨头，甚至挑战行业龙头地位。 冯华青强调，品类创新并非简单的改良，而是物种级别的革命，如智能手机颠覆功能机般彻底。 麒麟中国 ...

2025年5月13日，21世纪经济报道记者走访北京市场发现，鲜奶市场价格战进一步加剧。具体来看，在 物美超市，伊利金典高端鲜牛奶19.5一盒780ml，买一赠二；君乐宝悦鲜活19.9一盒1.25l，买一赠一； 蒙牛每日鲜语沙漠有机鲜牛奶24.9一瓶720ml，买一赠一。 在线上亦是类似态势。 21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生谭伊亭 报道 鲜奶市场价格战继续加剧。 在伊利抖音旗舰店，14瓶金典235ml金典鲜牛奶折后价仅为69.9元；同样在抖音渠道，10瓶光明优倍3.6 鲜奶（280ml）再额外送5个咖啡液价格仅为66.8元；8瓶君乐宝悦鲜活（260ml）售价仅为49.9元。 加剧的价格战背后是，各家均陷入销售压力。 在2024年，伊利液体乳收入750.03亿元，同比下滑12.32%。在2025年一季度，该公司液体乳收入196.40 亿元，同比下滑3.06%。 2024年，蒙牛液态奶收入730.7亿元，同比下滑10.6%。 2024年，主打鲜奶的光明乳业液态奶收入 141.7亿元，同比下滑9.5%。在2025年一季度，该公司液态奶 收入32.92亿元，同比下滑6.32%。2024年，同样主打鲜奶的三元股份液态 ...