Core Viewpoint - The current market rally, which began in September 2024, is expected to last for over four years, with Hong Kong stocks becoming a key breakthrough point and serving as a "value anchor" for Chinese assets [4][5][6]. Market Outlook - The A-share market has experienced approximately four years of decline since 2021, with a potential bottom reached in September 2024. Historical data suggests that the upcoming upward cycle could mirror the previous downturn [5]. - The market is currently in a phase where many investors have not yet adjusted their expectations, similar to the state of the market in 2013-2014 [5]. - The anticipated influx of overseas capital and a shift in China's economic structure will likely lead to a significant transformation in the asset allocation of Chinese residents, with the stock market becoming a new "reservoir" for funds [5][6]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong market is expected to be a breakthrough point due to its high marketization and regulatory framework, which prevents speculation on low-quality stocks [6]. - There is an expectation of continuous foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which has seen increased support from the government since the "9.24" policy [6]. - The valuation of certain H-shares is already higher than their A-share counterparts, indicating a potential premium for H-shares in the future [6]. Investment Focus Areas - The investment strategy will focus on sectors such as military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, and financial technology, utilizing an ETF rotation strategy for timing and allocation [4][7]. - The military industry is undergoing significant changes, with increased asset securitization and a shift towards performance-driven investment logic [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to replicate the rapid growth seen in the new energy vehicle sector, with leading companies potentially increasing their market capitalization significantly [8]. ETF Rotation Strategy - The ETF rotation strategy involves three main asset categories: domestic ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and derivative tools, allowing for a diverse range of investment opportunities [7]. - The strategy emphasizes strong timing and position management, utilizing a five-dimensional timing model that incorporates macroeconomic, liquidity, sentiment, technical, and overseas indicators [9][10]. - The strategy is designed to adapt to different market styles, focusing on macro-driven, thematic, event-driven, and stock selection sub-strategies, ensuring effective and accurate investment decisions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally, which began in September 2024, is expected to last for over four years, with Hong Kong stocks becoming a key breakthrough point and serving as a "value anchor" for Chinese assets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has experienced approximately four years of decline from 2021 until the expected bottom in September 2024, with the current year marking the second year of the rally [3]. - Historical data suggests that the upward cycle is often symmetrical with the downward cycle, indicating significant potential for future growth [3]. - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving economic expectations in China are anticipated to attract both overseas and domestic funds into the stock market [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors such as military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, and financial technology, with a flexible use of ETF rotation strategies for timing and allocation [1][5][6]. - The military industry is undergoing significant changes, with increased asset securitization and a shift towards performance-driven investment logic [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to replicate the rapid growth seen in the new energy vehicle market, with leading companies potentially increasing their market capitalization significantly [7]. Group 3: ETF Rotation Strategy - The ETF rotation strategy involves three main asset categories: domestic ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and derivative tools, allowing for a diverse range of investment opportunities [6][9]. - The strategy emphasizes strong timing and position management, utilizing a five-dimensional timing model that incorporates macroeconomic, liquidity, sentiment, technical, and overseas indicators [9][10]. - The rotation framework includes macro-driven, thematic, event-driven, and stock selection strategies, each with distinct holding periods and risk management approaches [10].

徐刚，南开大学经济学博士，曾任中信证券执行委员会委员、中信期货董事、华夏基金董事、中信建投 （601066）证券董事、中信兴业投资总经理，现任明晟东诚执行事务合伙人委派代表。 杨辰，清华大学本硕博，核物理博士。11年证券从业经验，曾任中信建投证券军工行业分析师，期间曾 师从周金涛学习康波周期。擅长采用宏观自上而下和中观行业比较相结合的投资策略，具备扎实的学术 专业背景和丰富的权益研究经验。 中长期来看，杨辰明确看好港股市场，以及A股的科技、创新药、军工、金融等板块的结构性行情。全 球资产方面，其ETF轮动策略也会阶段性配置以纳指科技为代表的美国市场和欧洲、日本、拉美等市 场。此外，还叠加对稀土、黄金、铜等大宗商品的配置。 □本报记者 张舒琳 今年以来，股市持续走高，市场交投活跃。在上证指数站稳3600点之际，记者就市场热点采访了明晟东 诚基金创始人徐刚、基金经理杨辰。徐刚认为，始于2024年9月的本轮行情有望持续四年以上，港股将 成为关键突破口，并承担中国资产"价值锚"功能。杨辰表示，将聚焦军工、创新药、金融科技领域的投 资机会，并灵活运用ETF轮动策略进行择时和主线配置。 港股有望成为行情突破口 从2021 ...