Group 1 - The economic growth outlook for Asia (excluding Japan) is mixed, with strong performance in the technology sector but challenges in the external environment [1] - The technology sector remains resilient due to sustained demand for artificial intelligence and support from the storage chip supercycle, while the non-technology sector remains weak due to limited spillover effects from AI and higher tariffs on labor-intensive industries imposed by the US [1] - Inflation is nearing its bottom, and low inflation may persist due to weak input costs, a negative output gap, and significant imports from China, providing room for policy easing [1] Group 2 - Southeast Asia and India are expected to have some room for interest rate cuts, while other central banks, such as the Bank of Korea, may maintain rates due to concerns over the real estate market [1] - Major downside risks for Asia (excluding Japan) include trade tensions, weak global demand, and aggressive tariffs on semiconductors by the US, while upside risks include successful supply chain diversification and stronger spillover effects from AI investments [1] - The medium-term outlook for the Asian economy remains optimistic, with solid economic fundamentals and new growth drivers such as supply chain shifts, increased AI investment, and accelerated infrastructure development [2] - India, the Philippines, and Malaysia are projected to be among the fastest-growing economies in the last decade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows a positive trend, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth in the region, particularly in China and India, while also highlighting the resilience of supply chains and regional cooperation as key factors for continued expansion [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - In August, the Asian manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.9%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking four consecutive months above 50% [1] - China's manufacturing PMI increased compared to the previous month, while India's PMI remained above 59% [1] - Among ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Thailand's PMIs rose above 51%, while the Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam maintained PMIs above 50%. Singapore's PMI was at 50%, and Malaysia's PMI fell below 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The overall economic outlook for Asia is positive, with China's economy solidifying its growth foundation, India maintaining rapid growth, and ASEAN economies showing signs of improvement [1] - The global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.9%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating that Asia's recovery level continues to surpass that of the Americas, Europe, and Africa, as well as the global manufacturing average [1] - The expanding economic scale of Asia is positioned as a core driver for global economic growth, supported by deepening regional cooperation and enhanced supply chain resilience [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices have dropped by $12 per barrel since early 2025, potentially reducing Asia's oil burden from 3.1% to 2.3% of GDP if the trend continues [1][5] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to both demand and supply factors, with demand forecasts being continuously revised downwards and OPEC's plans to increase production impacting supply [2][5] - Asia's oil burden has already fallen below the pre-pandemic long-term average of 3.6% since 2023, with predictions that it could further decrease if Brent crude prices average $61 per barrel over the next 12 months [5] Group 2 - A sustained drop in oil prices by $10 per barrel could lead to a 0.4 percentage point decrease in overall inflation rates across Asia, with nearly 90% of economies currently within their central banks' comfort zones for inflation [7][10] - The overall current account balance in Asia could improve by 0.4 percentage points of GDP with each $10 drop in oil prices, benefiting countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines that have long-standing current account deficits [10][12] Group 3 - The combination of weaker oil prices, a softening dollar, and trade tensions suggests that Asian central banks may implement more interest rate cuts, with the potential for cuts exceeding current market expectations [12][14] - Countries such as Thailand, South Korea, India, and Japan are expected to benefit more from falling oil prices, while Malaysia and Australia, as net exporters, may not see similar advantages [14]

Economic Growth and Trade - The Asian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2025, with its economic output (measured by purchasing power parity) accounting for 48.6% of the global total [1] - Asian merchandise trade is gradually recovering, while service trade continues to grow rapidly, with both goods and service trade in China reaching historical highs [1] - The reliance on foreign investment in Asian economies has been fluctuating, currently around 60%, with China and ASEAN being the most attractive regions for foreign capital [1] Employment and Unemployment - The overall unemployment rate in Asia was lower than the global average last year and is expected to decline slightly by 2025, remaining significantly better than the global unemployment rate of 4.96% [1] Financial Market Outlook - The financial market outlook is cautiously optimistic, with Asian stock indices expected to rise slowly amidst volatility [2] - Most Asian countries or economies are facing currency depreciation pressures, which may also affect the yields on government bonds of major economies [2] - Overall banking risks are considered manageable [2] Technological Impact - The application of artificial intelligence technology is anticipated to have a profound impact on employment in certain industries, with effects expected to become more apparent in the coming years [2]