记者 辛圆 数据显示，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。 展望2026年1月，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，伴随上年同期基数抬高，今年春节错期至2月，以及综合考虑当前各类主要商品和服务价格 波动趋势，1月CPI同比涨幅或有所回落。 "站在当前时点看，2026年物价水平偏低格局会延续，预计全年CPI累计同比会在0.4%左右，连续第四年处于低通胀状态。这为后期稳增长政策择机发力、 特别是央行适时降息提供了充分空间，也就是2026年仍无需过早过度担心需求刺激政策引发高通胀问题。"王青说。 国家统计局周五发布数据显示，2025年12月，中国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.8%，涨幅较11月回升0.1个百分点，涨幅创2023年3月份以来最高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称，2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，CPI涨幅有所扩大。 统计局称，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。2025年12月，食品价格上涨1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月 增加约0.17个百分点 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年经济的增长动能与复苏质量，在很大程度上取决于存量问题的解决进度与实效 文|《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑 | 王延春 2025年底中央经济工作会议闭幕后，各部委近期陆续列出2026年任务清单，更多增量政策即将出台。同 时，各地政府部门也陆续召开经济工作会议，分析当前形势，部署2026年经济任务。 2026年，是"十五五"规划的开局之年，在这一关键节点，做好经济工作对稳增长、提振市场信心至关重 要。2026年中国经济预计在政策支持和结构转型、深度改革下稳步增长，多位专家预测，增速可能在 4.5%-5%左右，重点在于扩大内需，通过创新驱动和绿色发展培育新动能，同时稳定房地产市场与化解 地方债务，保持财政和货币政策的积极支持。 过去的2025年，中国经济在中美贸易摩擦等内外复杂因素影响下抗住压力，彰显韧性，亮点纷呈。以科 技创新为核心驱动力的新质生产力加速形成，科技创新多点突破，人工智能大模型、人形机器人、生物 创新药等前沿领域取得重要进展，驱动经济提质增效。2025年1月-11月，规模以上高技术制造业增加值 同比增长9.2%，智能消费 ...

新华财经北京12月30日电（王姝睿）由于美国关税降低及全球形势略有改善，瑞士经济前景略有好转。 数据显示，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标延续了前几个月的上行走势，上升1.7点至103.4，达到自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，并超出市场预期的101.4，显示瑞士经济在2026年初的前景高于平均水平。 另外，食品饮料生产商以及化工和制药行业的子指标表现疲软，使整体乐观前景略显受限。 瑞士政府此前下修2026年经济增长预测，美国高关税成主因。瑞士经济2025年料将增长1.3%，2026年 料将增长0.9%。近期整体贸易不确定性有所缓解，同时，海外扩张性财政政策利好瑞士经济，并有助 于出口，使瑞士经济前景温和向好。分析称，瑞士经济的主要风险在于全球经济的发展。 考虑到经济前景以及持续的低通胀，瑞士央行维持政策利率在0%不变，这是主要央行中最低的利率。 此前的高关税已损害经济增长，而贸易动荡期间避险资金流入推高瑞郎汇率，使进口商品更便宜，进一 步压低了通胀。 （文章来源：新华财经） 积极趋势在生产侧尤为明显，瑞士制造业相关指标组合显示出向好前景。相比之下，私人消费和国外需 求相关的指标组合则仍面临压力。 在生 ...

2026年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，将是中国经济告别低通胀阴霾、确立"新均衡"的转折之年，华尔街见闻在此整理了国内十大券商对2026年中国经济的 展望报告。 在宏观增长与价格修复上，各大券商展现出高度共识。 招商、平安、西部、申万及国海等一致认为中国经济将走出低通胀泥潭。招商证券提出"告别低通 胀"、中信建投预判"走出通胀低谷"，以及西部证券强调的"名义增速回升"。随着"反内卷"政策限制供给，叠加猪周期触底和PPI转正，价格因子的修复将成 为推动企业盈利改善和名义GDP回升的关键力量。 在结构转型的新旧动能切换上，市场观点也趋于一致。 多数报告强调2026年是"新老接力"的关键节点。一方面，房地产投资被普遍认为进入"L型"筑底或降 幅收窄的扫尾阶段；另一方面，AI、数据中心能耗需求、高端制造等"新质生产力"将成为实质性的增长引擎。 关于需求侧的驱动力来源，各家机构存在分歧。民生与东北证券坚持"外需优于内需"的判断，认为尽管面临贸易摩擦，中国出口的韧性和新市场开拓仍是主 要支撑；而西部证券与申万宏源则认为将转向"内需主导"，强调通过改革红利和民生保障来提升消费率。 在资产配置与市场风格的预判上，观点分化最为 ...

CPI同比涨幅扩大 国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上 涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品 价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 二是新兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。随着我国新材料、具身智能等行业的快速发展和 绿色低碳转型的深入推进，相关行业需求增加，外存储设备及部件价格同比上涨13.9%，石墨及碳素制 11月份，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅扩大，主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价 格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 其中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨。鲜果价格由上月下降 2.0%转为上涨0.7%，牛肉和羊肉价格涨幅均有扩大，猪肉和禽肉类价格降幅均有收窄。能源价格下降 3.4%，降幅比上月扩大1. ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine consecutive months of decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4] - The increase in PPI was supported by rising prices in coal and gas sectors, while international oil price fluctuations led to a decrease in domestic oil and gas extraction prices [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5] - Emerging industries are rapidly developing, contributing to price increases in related sectors, such as a 13.9% rise in external storage devices and components [6] - Future inflation is expected to remain low, providing room for growth-stimulating policies, with a gradual recovery in consumer prices anticipated [7][8]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after a nine-month decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressure [2][3][8] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4][5] - The prices in sectors such as coal mining and gas production saw significant month-on-month increases due to seasonal demand, while oil-related sectors experienced price declines [4][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5][6] - Emerging industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with notable growth in new materials and intelligent technology, suggesting a positive trend for future pricing [6][8] - The potential for moderate price recovery is anticipated, supported by stable domestic demand and effective policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [7][8]

12月10日，国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略 降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优 化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降 2.2%。 11月的物价数据呈现出"CPI明显上行，PPI初现暖意"的画卷。积极的变化在于CPI释放筑底信号，新动 能崭露头角。 CPI同比涨幅扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2% "CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品 价格由降转涨拉动。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟在解读11月份CPI数据时指出。 从细分项来看，食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转 为上拉0.04个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转 涨，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；牛肉 和羊肉价格分别上涨6.2%和3.7%，涨 ...

Macro Economy - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64% this week, with the asset allocation order being stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.64%, while the Shanghai Composite Index futures rose by 1.49%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 4.40%, and iron ore main contracts increased by 0.64%. The annualized yield of Yu'ebao decreased by 2 basis points to 1.00%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.84% [2][12][37]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report highlights that raw material prices continue to be a significant drag on the profitability of industrial enterprises. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for production materials showed a notable year-on-year decline from January to October. The report suggests that policies may be implemented to address the issue of "price weakness" from both supply and demand sides, with expectations for incremental policies by the end of this year and early next year [3][5][21]. Key Economic Data - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached USD 144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The new contract amount for foreign engineering contracting business was USD 210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [6][21]. Industry Insights - The report notes that the real estate investment continues to drag down fixed asset investment performance, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 14.7% from January to October, impacting the current fixed asset investment growth rate by 3.0 percentage points [3][21]. Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures index rose by 5.25% this week, with significant increases in non-metallic building materials (4.64%) and precious metals (3.80%). However, some commodities like coking coal saw a decline of 2.52% [49][51]. Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a general increase, with the ChiNext Index leading at a rise of 4.54%. The telecommunications and electronic components sectors performed well, while the oil and coal sectors experienced declines [37][38]. Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond yield rose to 1.84%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points. The report indicates that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may impact the bond market in the short term [42][44]. Consumer Market Trends - The report highlights that the automobile consumption data shows a mixed performance, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 2% and -7% respectively. The report anticipates that automobile consumption will remain a key focus for future consumption promotion efforts [34][37].

从"量"、"价"角度看，1-10 月工业生产活动维持活跃，但价格端表 现仍较弱势。一方面，1-10 月工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，增速较前三季 度微幅下滑 0.1 个百分点，生产端仍能对当期工业企业盈利形成支撑。 另一方面，1-10 月 PPI、生产资料 PPI 同比增速仍为负，分别下降 2.7% 和 3.2%，但降幅均较 9 月微幅收窄 0.1 个百分点，工业品出厂价格表现 仍对工业企业盈利有所掣肘。 原材料价格仍是当前工业企业盈利能力的主要拖累。1-10 月生产资料 PPI 同比降幅仍较明显。在此前深度报告《我们如何理解国内"低通 胀"？》中，我们指出，国内工业品价格弱势受到国际大宗商品价格震 荡、国内地产投资不振等因素的共同影响，从 10 月的状况看： 首先，10 月煤炭开采和洗选业的进口价格指数（环比）为 73.7，低于 100 的上月基线水平，环比延续负增长，煤炭进口价格持续不振，1-10 月煤炭开采及洗选业对工业企业利润总额同比增速的负贡献为 4.2 个百 分点。 其次，地产投资仍对我国固定资产投资表现有所拖累，1-10 月累计同比 下降 14.7%，拖累当期固投增速 3.0 个百分点，仍是需求 ...