资产配置 | 动态跟踪 金价是交易问题不是预期问题 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | 1、 极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘超预期事件等，可能打破统计上的历史规 律； 2、 量化指标失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。该结论是根据黄金/美债两 类避险资产的相对规模变化对金价的上行空间进行测算，并非对金价的单一决定性预 测，未来金价走势仍受到交易成本、交易情绪、交易结构等因素影响。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market continues to rise with increased trading volume, driven by heightened risk appetite and the ongoing spring rally [1] - The strong momentum effect suggests that there may still be room for the spring market to grow, but the trading structure is becoming concentrated, indicating a potential shift towards rotation in the market [1] - As the earnings forecast window approaches, it is recommended to focus on high cost-performance sectors, particularly those benefiting from improvements in external demand and themes with relatively low crowding [1] Group 2 - Specific industries to watch include gaming, duty-free, batteries, construction machinery, and agrochemicals [1] - The mid-term allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a focus on accumulating upstream resource stocks in the power chain during dips [1]

Core Insights - The essence of a business model is the transformation of resources into economic value, focusing on the keywords: resources, value, and transformation [2] - A successful business model must create new global increments, ensuring that all participants in the transaction structure benefit more than before [4] Business Model Principles - Successful business models are characterized by five core principles: 1. Entering high-profit areas by addressing industry bottlenecks and development trends, as seen with Alibaba and Cirque du Soleil [9] 2. Eliminating fatal shortcomings, as demonstrated by Nokia's collapse due to system flaws and poor decisions [9] 3. Occupying the high ground in the industry by focusing on core competencies, exemplified by the brand influence of Chu Orange [9] 4. Building competitive barriers to ensure sustainability, as illustrated by the downfall of Fu Yun Quan due to lack of protection against counterfeits [9] 5. Exceeding user value, where great business models ensure customer satisfaction while also generating profits for the company, like Ford's Model T [11] Steps to Design a Successful Business Model - Four key steps to planning a successful business model include: 1. Precisely identifying customer value by understanding who the customers are and what unique value can be offered [12] 2. Constructing a win-win transaction structure by listing all stakeholders and determining the value exchanges [12] 3. Designing a sustainable profit model that not only focuses on making money but also on continuously creating and distributing value, as seen with Starbucks [14] 4. Establishing key resource capabilities that are difficult for competitors to imitate, such as Toyota's lean production system [14] Common Pitfalls in Business Model Innovation - Three major pitfalls to avoid during innovation include: 1. Confusing exposure with persuasion, where high exposure does not equate to brand credibility [19] 2. Ignoring evolutionary trends, as modern enterprises must continuously optimize resource conversion efficiency [21] 3. Overcomplicating the business model, which can hinder implementation [23] Future Perspectives on Business Model Planning - The "systemic view" emphasizes that businesses are part of a deeply interconnected ecosystem, providing insights for collaboration [23] - The "evolutionary view" highlights the accelerated pace of innovation and the importance of resource conversion efficiency for survival in a fast-paced environment [23] Conclusion - Business model innovation is not a zero-sum game; designing new transaction structures that benefit all participants can lead to transformative outcomes [25] - The ultimate goal of a business model is to enable customers, partners, and the company itself to profit, as articulated by Liu Run [25]