成交活跃度下降，沪深 300 估值领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——情绪与估值 12 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 上周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）成交活跃度下降，沪深 300 领涨。宽基指数：估值涨 跌互现，沪深 300 领涨。行业指数：PE 估值农林牧渔，PB 估值交通运输领涨。情 绪：交易活跃度下降，换手率全面下降，成交额全面下降。ERP：环比走平。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.21 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 消费景气线索增多，电子产业增长延续 2025.12.17 资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨 2025.12.15 融资资金流入加速，外资重回流入 2 ...

（来源：一观大势） 作者：方奕/李健 核心观点：上周（2025/12/1-2025/12/5）成交活跃度上升，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。行业指数：PE估值家电，PB估值有 色金属领涨。情绪：交易活跃度上升，换手率全面上升，成交额全面下降。ERP：环比下降。 投资要点 ▶指数估值：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面上涨，创业板指领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各指数全面上涨，创业板指领涨，涨1.7个 pct。PB-LF历史分位：各指数全面上涨，创业板指领涨，涨1.3个pct。风格指数：估值涨多跌少，大盘股风格领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各风格涨多跌 少，大盘股风格领涨1.4个pct。PB-LF历史分位：各风格涨多跌少，大盘股风格领涨5.1个pct。 ▶行业估值：PE估值家电，PB估值有色金属领涨。行业PE：估值涨多跌少，家电领涨。PE-TTM历史分位：各行业估值涨多跌少，家电领涨3.7个pct。 PE-G对比：电力设备及新能源具有性价比。行业PB：估值涨多跌少，有色金属领涨。PB-LF历史分位：各行业估值涨多跌少，有色金属领涨8.9个pct。 PB-ROE对比：银行具有性价比。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that trading activity has increased, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the smallest decline in valuation among major indices [1][4] - Overall valuation has decreased across indices, with the Shanghai 50 experiencing a decline of 1.8 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile and 2.6 percentage points in PB-LF historical percentile [4][5] - In terms of industry valuation, the communication sector leads in PE valuation, while the oil and petrochemical sector leads in PB valuation, with the latter increasing by 0.3 percentage points [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights a rise in trading sentiment, with turnover rates increasing across all indices, particularly the Shanghai 50, which saw a significant rise of 27.2% [4][24] - However, the total transaction amount has decreased across all indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 11.9% [4][29] - The margin trading balance as of November 20, 2025, was 2.50 trillion, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% compared to the previous week [4][30] Group 3 - The report notes a slight increase in the equity risk premium (ERP), which rose to 4.26%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week [4][26] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment is mixed, with increased trading activity but declining transaction volumes [4][29]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing significant downward pressure, erasing gains made earlier in the year due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, liquidity issues, and trading sentiment [1][5][8]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,714, marking a nearly 2% decline in 24 hours and erasing all gains for the year [1]. - As of the latest report, Bitcoin rebounded slightly to $95,734.9, while Ethereum was priced at $3,199.91 [2][3]. - Major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have seen significant declines, with Ethereum's 7-day drop reaching 11.38% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The decline is attributed to multiple pressures, including fluctuating macroeconomic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a tightening liquidity environment [5][6]. - Institutional investors have been redeeming their holdings, leading to a net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since September [5]. - High leverage levels in the market have made it more susceptible to liquidity shocks, with over 230,000 accounts liquidated in a recent 24-hour period, totaling over $1 billion [7]. Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable decrease in risk appetite among investors, influenced by recent losses in the market and a cautious trading environment [8]. - Historical patterns of Bitcoin's price volatility are causing some investors to preemptively reduce their positions to lock in profits [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks remains intact, but it requires time to mature as an asset class [9]. - Key variables influencing future market direction include the development of ETF channels, clarity in global regulatory environments, and sustained demand in on-chain finance and cross-border payments [9]. - Analysts suggest that while recent declines may correct excessive risk-taking and valuation discrepancies, the structural vulnerabilities of the cryptocurrency market compared to traditional financial assets still pose significant risks [9].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend, closing up 0.33% at 3609.71 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86% to 2406.59 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 180.32 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Highlights - The technology growth sector performed exceptionally well, with significant gains in areas such as innovative drugs, PCB, CXO, and CPO [1] - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slow bull market [1] Competition Insights - The ongoing "掘金大赛" (Gold Digging Competition) has attracted many participants who are seizing market opportunities [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate stock trading with a virtual capital of 500,000 yuan, running from July 21 to July 31 [3] Participant Benefits - Participants in the competition receive various benefits, including free access to the "火线快评" (Fire Line Quick Review) for five days upon successful registration [6][10] - Top performers in each competition round receive additional rewards, including cash prizes and extended access to the "火线快评" [6][10] Investment Strategies - Participants are advised to focus on holding stocks during significant market movements rather than frequently trading [7] - There are two prevailing profit models in the A-share market: one driven by trading sentiment and the other based on fundamental logic supported by performance [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]