资产配置 | 动态跟踪 金价是交易问题不是预期问题 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | 1、 极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘超预期事件等，可能打破统计上的历史规 律； 2、 量化指标失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。该结论是根据黄金/美债两 类避险资产的相对规模变化对金价的上行空间进行测算，并非对金价的单一决定性预 测，未来金价走势仍受到交易成本、交易情绪、交易结构等因素影响。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in trading activity, with the ChiNext Index leading in valuation growth. The overall market valuation has risen, with the ChiNext Index showing the highest increase [1][4]. Valuation Summary - The report highlights that the PE valuation across various indices has shown mixed results, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 0.9 percentage point increase. The PB valuation also reflects mixed trends, with the CSI 1000 leading with a 2.0 percentage point increase [4][5]. - In terms of industry valuations, the media sector leads in PE valuation, increasing by 1.5 percentage points, while the power and utilities sector leads in PB valuation with a 4.8 percentage point increase [4][5][20]. Market Sentiment - The report notes a rise in trading activity, with turnover rates showing mixed results. The Shanghai 50 Index saw the largest increase in turnover rate at 9.4%. Overall transaction volume increased across all indices, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 30.4% increase [4][31]. - The margin trading balance as of January 15, 2026, reached 2.70 trillion, reflecting a 3.47% increase compared to January 9, 2026. The proportion of financing purchases in total A-share transaction volume was 11.18%, a slight decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week [4][32]. Risk Premium - The report indicates a slight increase in the equity risk premium (ERP), which rose to 3.95% as of January 16, 2026, up by 0.02 percentage points from January 9, 2026 [4][28].

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with the CSI 300 index leading the gains among broad indices [1] - Valuations showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 index leading in both PE and PB metrics [1] - The report highlights that the agricultural sector led in PE valuation, while the transportation sector led in PB valuation [1] Valuation Summary - Broad indices experienced mixed valuation changes, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 0.6% in PE-TTM historical percentile and 4.1% in PB-LF historical percentile [4] - Among style indices, financial style led with a 2.9% increase in PE-TTM historical percentile [4] - The agricultural sector saw a 1.2% increase in PE-TTM historical percentile, while the transportation sector led with a 5.4% increase in PB-LF historical percentile [4][5] Sentiment Analysis - Trading activity decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across all indices [4] - The turnover rate for the Wind All A index fell by 6.0%, while the transaction volume decreased by 9.9% [4][29] - As of December 18, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.50 trillion, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08% compared to the previous week [4][31] ERP Analysis - The report notes that the risk premium (ERP) for the Wind All A index remained stable at 4.26% as of December 19, 2025 [4][7]

Core Viewpoints - The trading activity increased during the week of December 1-5, 2025, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The broad market indices saw a comprehensive rise in valuations, with the ChiNext Index also leading in this aspect. [3][51] Index Valuation - Overall valuations increased, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise. The PE-TTM historical percentile for all indices rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.7 percentage points. The PB-LF historical percentile also saw a comprehensive increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.3 percentage points. [4][52] - In terms of style indices, large-cap stocks led the gains, with the PE-TTM historical percentile for large-cap stocks increasing by 1.4 percentage points and the PB-LF historical percentile rising by 5.1 percentage points. [4][52] Industry Valuation - The PE valuation for the home appliance sector and the PB valuation for non-ferrous metals led the industry gains. The PE-TTM historical percentile for the home appliance sector increased by 3.7 percentage points, while the PB-LF historical percentile for non-ferrous metals rose by 8.9 percentage points. [4][52] - The power equipment and new energy sectors showed good cost-performance ratios. Additionally, banks were noted for their cost-performance in terms of PB-ROE comparison. [4][52] Market Sentiment - Trading activity increased, with turnover rates rising across all indices. The CSI 300 had the smallest increase, leading with a rise of 96.9%. However, the total transaction amount decreased across all indices, with the total A-share market declining by 2.3%. [5][53] - As of December 4, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.42% compared to November 28, 2025. The proportion of financing purchases to total A-share transaction amounts was 9.81%, down by 0.23 percentage points from the previous week's average. [5][53] ERP - The ERP saw a slight decrease, with the total A-share risk premium at 4.24%, down by 0.03 percentage points compared to November 28, 2025. [5][53]

Group 1 - The report indicates that trading activity has increased, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the smallest decline in valuation among major indices [1][4] - Overall valuation has decreased across indices, with the Shanghai 50 experiencing a decline of 1.8 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile and 2.6 percentage points in PB-LF historical percentile [4][5] - In terms of industry valuation, the communication sector leads in PE valuation, while the oil and petrochemical sector leads in PB valuation, with the latter increasing by 0.3 percentage points [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights a rise in trading sentiment, with turnover rates increasing across all indices, particularly the Shanghai 50, which saw a significant rise of 27.2% [4][24] - However, the total transaction amount has decreased across all indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 11.9% [4][29] - The margin trading balance as of November 20, 2025, was 2.50 trillion, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% compared to the previous week [4][30] Group 3 - The report notes a slight increase in the equity risk premium (ERP), which rose to 4.26%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week [4][26] - The report emphasizes that the overall market sentiment is mixed, with increased trading activity but declining transaction volumes [4][29]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing significant downward pressure, erasing gains made earlier in the year due to a combination of macroeconomic expectations, liquidity issues, and trading sentiment [1][5][8]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to a low of $93,714, marking a nearly 2% decline in 24 hours and erasing all gains for the year [1]. - As of the latest report, Bitcoin rebounded slightly to $95,734.9, while Ethereum was priced at $3,199.91 [2][3]. - Major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, have seen significant declines, with Ethereum's 7-day drop reaching 11.38% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The decline is attributed to multiple pressures, including fluctuating macroeconomic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a tightening liquidity environment [5][6]. - Institutional investors have been redeeming their holdings, leading to a net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since September [5]. - High leverage levels in the market have made it more susceptible to liquidity shocks, with over 230,000 accounts liquidated in a recent 24-hour period, totaling over $1 billion [7]. Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable decrease in risk appetite among investors, influenced by recent losses in the market and a cautious trading environment [8]. - Historical patterns of Bitcoin's price volatility are causing some investors to preemptively reduce their positions to lock in profits [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks remains intact, but it requires time to mature as an asset class [9]. - Key variables influencing future market direction include the development of ETF channels, clarity in global regulatory environments, and sustained demand in on-chain finance and cross-border payments [9]. - Analysts suggest that while recent declines may correct excessive risk-taking and valuation discrepancies, the structural vulnerabilities of the cryptocurrency market compared to traditional financial assets still pose significant risks [9].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index continued its upward trend, closing up 0.33% at 3609.71 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 11289.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86% to 2406.59 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 180.32 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Highlights - The technology growth sector performed exceptionally well, with significant gains in areas such as innovative drugs, PCB, CXO, and CPO [1] - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slow bull market [1] Competition Insights - The ongoing "掘金大赛" (Gold Digging Competition) has attracted many participants who are seizing market opportunities [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate stock trading with a virtual capital of 500,000 yuan, running from July 21 to July 31 [3] Participant Benefits - Participants in the competition receive various benefits, including free access to the "火线快评" (Fire Line Quick Review) for five days upon successful registration [6][10] - Top performers in each competition round receive additional rewards, including cash prizes and extended access to the "火线快评" [6][10] Investment Strategies - Participants are advised to focus on holding stocks during significant market movements rather than frequently trading [7] - There are two prevailing profit models in the A-share market: one driven by trading sentiment and the other based on fundamental logic supported by performance [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rally this week, with the North Securities 50 index leading the major broad-based indices with a weekly increase of 6.84% [3] - Major indices saw comprehensive gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the CSI 300 by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [4] Trading Sentiment - The market's strong rise was accompanied by a steady increase in trading volume, indicating improved liquidity [3] - The volume timing indicator for the North Securities 50 remains cautious, while other major indices have shifted to a bullish signal [3] Fund Flow - ETF funds showed signs of profit-taking, with an overall net outflow from equity ETFs, particularly in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and small-cap stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 28.381 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 13.489 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 14.892 billion HKD [10] Valuation Metrics - As of June 27, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at "moderate" valuation percentiles, while the ChiNext Index is at a "safe" valuation percentile [5] - In terms of sector valuation, industries like electricity and public utilities, home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [6] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents increased week-on-week, indicating an improved short-term Alpha environment [7] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents decreased, suggesting a weakening short-term Alpha environment [7] Institutional Focus - The top five stocks attracting the most institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (151 institutions), Weigao Medical (144), Jingbeifang (79), AVIC Chengfei (66), and Cangge Mining (64) [9]