最近这两周，大多数人可能都在关注大A的行情。 但真正关键的信息和信号，藏在市场的细节之中， 往往不被大多数人察觉。 在股市行情占据热点版面的背后，其实有一个更加能体现未来资本市场风向的重要信号，被大家忽略了。 这个关键的信号就是： 债券市场的变化 这两天， 国债几乎全线下调 ，其中中长期债券的下调，尤为明显。 和大A连续创下新高不同，国债的价格开始连续创下新低。 就拿 国债期货 来说： 国债30年期主力合约 单日下跌 1.33% ，创下3月17日以来最大降幅，收盘价也创下3月24日以来的新低。 技术面上看，30年国债期货的周K线级别，接近走出一个 "双顶" 形态。 懂技术面的朋友都知道，这是 典型的趋势向下的信号， 预示着接下来30年期国债期货还有继续下跌的空间。 除了30年期国债之外，10年期的主力合约，也下 跌了 0.29%， 5年期合约，跌幅同样达到 0.21%。 和价格下跌同步进行的，是债券收益率的上行。 30年期国债的 收益率上行 6.10个基点 至 2.055% ，时隔4个月重回 2%上 方。 10年期国债 收益率上行 4个基点到 1.785% ，超过7月底的高点。 债券的价格和收益率，是负相关的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which are critical signals for the future direction of the capital market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, especially in medium to long-term bonds [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures experienced a notable drop of 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, with closing prices hitting new lows since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in bond prices and the simultaneous rise in yields indicate a weakening demand for bonds, suggesting that the attractiveness of bonds is diminishing [12][13]. - The article discusses the traditional inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, where a strong stock market typically correlates with a weak bond market [15][16]. - However, the article argues that the current weakness in the bond market is not solely due to this stock-bond dynamic, as both short-term and long-term bonds are experiencing price and yield changes [19][24]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The shift from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted as a key factor influencing the bond market's performance [31][32]. - Recent economic indicators, such as rising CPI and increasing commodity prices, suggest a warming inflation outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that external factors, including increased foreign investment and potential policy changes, are contributing to a positive shift in market expectations [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the capital market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is anticipated, with trading dynamics shifting towards inflation-driven strategies [48][49]. - The current market conditions indicate that the bond market may continue to weaken while the stock market remains strong, suggesting a new normal for capital market behavior [50].