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宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025年9月24日)-20250924
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:11
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday bias towards a strong oscillation. Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a medium - term oscillation and an intraday bias towards a strong oscillation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: This week, Shanghai gold increased in price with increasing positions. The main contract price rose nearly 30 yuan/gram, reaching the 860 - yuan mark, corresponding to New York gold reaching 3800 US dollars and London gold standing above 3750 US dollars [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The main driving factor is the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell showed a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price started to rise. Technically, the gold price broke through the oscillation range since the second quarter, with strong upward momentum. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the liquidation of long positions ended last Friday, the US dollar index declined, and the gold price broke through the previous high, showing a short - term accelerating upward trend. The medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Long - term strong, short - term and medium - term upward, intraday oscillation with a strong bias. Short - term support can be observed at the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan level, and the night - session oscillation continued with a narrowing amplitude, and the trading volume changed little [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, after the Fed's interest rate cut, gold and silver resumed their upward trends, which is expected to drive up the copper price. Industrially, the copper price dropped from a high level and it is the industrial peak season, so the downstream replenishment willingness increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Short - term macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the pre - holiday replenishment willingness in the industry is strong [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillation, intraday oscillation with a strong bias. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [1][5].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025年9月23日)-20250923
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the long - term outlook is strong, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term upward trend, and an intraday oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. For copper, the short - term view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly stronger [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai gold increased in price with significant position - building. The main contract price rose nearly 10 yuan/gram during the day, remained strong at night, reaching the 850 - yuan mark. New York gold approached 3800 dollars, and London gold approached 3750 dollars [3] - **Driving Logic**: After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the closing of long positions on Friday came to an end. The US dollar index declined, and the gold price broke through the previous high, showing an accelerating upward trend in the short term. The medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term support can be observed at the 5 - and 10 - day moving averages [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price first declined and then rose, and the position of Shanghai copper continued to decline, indicating reduced capital attention [4] - **Driving Logic**: At the macro level, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the closing of long positions on Friday ended, and the resurgence of the upward trend in gold and silver is expected to drive up the copper price. At the industrial level, due to the high - level decline in copper prices and the industrial peak season, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has increased, and the accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down on Monday. After the short - term interest rate meeting, macro disturbances decreased and industrial influence increased, resulting in a relatively weak overall copper price trend. Attention should be paid to the domestic inventory situation, and technically, the 80,000 - yuan technical support level should be monitored [4]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250917
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and copper are expected to have a short - term and medium - term upward trend, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a short - term bullish outlook [1] - Gold is likely to maintain a strong performance due to the approaching US interest rate cuts and the breakthrough of the oscillation range [1][3] - Copper is expected to run strongly, driven by macro - level factors such as the weakening US dollar and industry - level factors like pre - National Day stocking demand [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last night, the gold price rose first and then fell. London gold once reached $3700, and Shanghai gold touched 845 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year [3] - **Core Logic**: The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in each of the remaining two meetings this year. The US dollar index is running weakly, breaking below the 97 mark last night [3] - **Outlook**: The gold price is expected to maintain a strong performance. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $3700 mark of London gold [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price rose first and then fell yesterday, and maintained an oscillating operation at night [5] - **Core Logic (Macro)**: The Fed's September interest - rate meeting has started, and the US dollar is weak, breaking below the 97 mark last night, which is beneficial to the copper price from a financial perspective. There is a new "anti - involution" market in China, resulting in a resonance of internal and external macro - level positives [5] - **Core Logic (Industry)**: Currently, it is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. Entering the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Monday, but the pre - National Day stocking demand may support the copper price [5] - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to maintain a strong performance. Technically, LME copper faces strong resistance at the previous high in March, corresponding to strong resistance for Shanghai copper at 81,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the resistance level [5]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250911
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show a short - term and mid - term upward trend, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly. Copper is also expected to have a short - term and mid - term upward trend, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices maintained high - level oscillating. New York gold oscillated below $3700, and Shanghai gold oscillated around 835 yuan. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22nd, gold prices have been on an upward trend, with foreign gold breaking through the high of the oscillation range since the second quarter of this year [3] - **Core Logic**: Recent stock markets at home and abroad have been oscillating, giving gold a safe - haven premium. In the short term, the upward momentum of gold prices is strong. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average when prices fall. Also, focus on tonight's US inflation data [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last night, copper prices increased in volume and moved upwards, with the main contract price standing above the 80,000 - yuan mark [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the expectation of overseas economic decline is rising, which is negative for copper prices, while the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, which is positive. Industrially, the support of the domestic industrial peak season for futures prices is constantly strengthening. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro - environment and the industry entering the peak season, futures prices are expected to move strongly. Technically, the futures price increased in volume and stood above 80,000 yuan, with strong upward momentum [4]