产品迭代优化

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老铺黄金(6181.HK):品牌持续破圈带动业绩高增 符合预期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-29 19:35
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both offline same-store sales and online channel growth, with a strong outlook for the second half of the year due to new store contributions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of 12-12.5 billion yuan for 25H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 241%-255% [1]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 2.3-2.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 282%-292% [1]. - Net profit is expected to be 2.23-2.28 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 279%-288% [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The substantial revenue growth in 25H1 is attributed to the expansion of brand influence, leading to significant market advantages and increased overall revenue from both online and offline stores [1]. - Continuous product iteration and optimization are also contributing to the revenue and profit growth [1]. - The company has opened several key stores in 2023, including locations in Shanghai and Singapore, with more planned for the second half of the year [1]. Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The adjusted net profit margin for 25H1 is estimated to be around 18.9%-19.2%, compared to 17.7% in 2024 [2]. - The net profit margin for 25H1 is projected to be 18.2%-18.6%, up from 16.7% in 24H1 and 17.3% in 2024 [2]. - The increase in net profit margin is primarily due to the profit elasticity from same-store growth under a fully direct sales model, despite potential short-term pressure on gross margins from rising gold prices [2]. Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 24.6 billion, 35.8 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 189%, 45%, and 29% respectively [2]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 4.918 billion, 7.256 billion, and 9.435 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 234%, 48%, and 30% respectively [2]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 24, 16, and 12 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 based on the closing price on July 28 [2].