黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续上涨走势，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3076 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 偏强整理 | | | 价格上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅为 0.36%，持仓增加 1.09 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.76 万吨。据 | | | | 我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 3.24 万吨至 221.08 万吨，同比减少 15.67 万吨；社库环比回 | | | | 升 1.34 万吨至 364.74 万吨，同比减少 221.07 万吨；厂库环比回落 5.13 万吨至 180.47 万吨，同比减少 20.31 | | | | 万吨；螺纹表需回升 4.96 万吨至 224.87 万吨，同比减少 9.91 万吨。螺纹产量连续第三周回升，库存继续 | | | | 小幅下降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic steel prices have risen following the release of the latest steel production and inventory data, with expectations of supply-side reforms in the overcapacity industry boosting market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Inventory Data - As of July 3, the national rebar production increased by 32,400 tons week-on-week to 2.2108 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 156,700 tons [1]. - Social inventory rose by 13,400 tons week-on-week to 3.6474 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2107 million tons [1]. - Factory inventory decreased by 51,300 tons week-on-week to 1.8047 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 203,100 tons [1]. - Rebar demand increased by 49,600 tons week-on-week to 2.2487 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 99,100 tons [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite weak supply and demand for rebar, low inventory levels and strong steel billet exports are supporting the market, with some steel mills receiving orders for exports until August [2]. - The recent environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, limiting sintering machine output by 30% from July 4 to 15, are expected to impact some steel mills' production [2]. - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity, enhancing expectations for supply-side reforms in the overcapacity industry [2].