1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - **Basis**: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - **Cross - commodity Contract Spread**: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]

7月9日，锰硅期货主力合约小幅上涨1.28%，报收于5718.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 7月8日，郑商所锰硅期货仓单87849张，环比上个交易日减少364张。 据调研，截止7月8日，全国50家主产建材的电炉钢厂开工率为33.02%，环比上期上升1.16%；产能利用 率为35.19%，环比上升0.88%；建材日均产量为7.84万吨，环比上升0.2万吨。 河钢集团7月硅锰采量14600吨。6月采量：11700吨。（2024年7月采量：14100吨）。7月河钢75B硅铁 招标数量2700吨，上轮招标数量2200吨，较上轮增500吨。 机构观点 光大期货：近期在"反内卷"、"清产能"等消息刺激下，市场情绪有一定升温，但目前看来，基本面缺乏 共振驱动，短期情绪端驱动可持续性偏弱。供应端，随着近期锰硅价格小幅上移，生产利润边际好转， 锰硅周产量仍在持续增加，需求端，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值环比略有增加，但绝对值仍处历史同期 低位水平，终端需求没有明显增量，钢厂备货意愿有限，以刚需采购为主。库存端，当前供需结构下， 63家样本企业库存在逐渐累积。综合来看，预计短期锰硅期价低位震荡运行为主，关注黑色板块走势及 后续中央政 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3061 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 11 元/吨，跌幅为 0.36%，持仓减少 4.13 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.59 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 1.29%至 375.07 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.87%至 174.22 万吨。 | | | | 螺纹热卷库存均呈上升态势，钢材现实驱动有所走弱。上周盘面上涨后基差收敛，淡季下游对现货涨价的 | | | | 接受度不高，部分品种如唐山钢坯近期累库较快，对盘面价格走势存在一定压制。不过目前现货基本面矛 | | | | 盾并不明显，市场对于"反内卷"政策推进仍存有一定预期。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为主。 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续上涨走势，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3076 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 偏强整理 | | | 价格上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅为 0.36%，持仓增加 1.09 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.76 万吨。据 | | | | 我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 3.24 万吨至 221.08 万吨，同比减少 15.67 万吨；社库环比回 | | | | 升 1.34 万吨至 364.74 万吨，同比减少 221.07 万吨；厂库环比回落 5.13 万吨至 180.47 万吨，同比减少 20.31 | | | | 万吨；螺纹表需回升 4.96 万吨至 224.87 万吨，同比减少 9.91 万吨。螺纹产量连续第三周回升，库存继续 | | | | 小幅下降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。 ...