证券研究报告 | 2025年07月21日 TDI 行业点评 海外装置不可抗力，TDI 价格快速上行 |  行业研究·行业快评 | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 余双雨 | 021-60375485 | yushuangyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523120001 | 事项： 事件：海外装置不可抗力，短期 TDI 供应收缩。7 月 12 日，科思创（Covestro）位于德国多尔马根（Dormagen） 的工厂发生电气火灾，导致其烧碱、氯气和盐酸生产遭遇不可抗力。该工厂烧碱年产能 44.8 万吨，氯气 年产能 48 万吨，这些原料短缺直接影响下游 TDI 生产。7 月 16 日，科思创正式宣布其 TDA/TDI、基于 OTDA 的产品、聚醚多元醇遭遇不可抗力。原因是火灾导致的氯气供应中断（氯气是 T ...

Core Viewpoint - Huike Co., Ltd. has been accepted for IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is undergoing on-site inspection, indicating a significant step in its growth strategy [1] Industry Overview - Huike ranks third in the global panel industry, following BOE Technology Group and TCL Huaxing, with mainland manufacturers' market share approaching 70% in 2024 due to the exit of Japanese and Korean competitors from the LCD market [2][3] - The increasing market concentration is expected to stabilize LCD market volatility and reduce price competition [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Huike's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are projected to reach 40.3 billion yuan and 3.3 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Despite recovering from significant losses in 2022, Huike's net profit has not returned to 2021 levels, with 2024's profit only at 60% of 2021's figures [13][14] - Manufacturing costs have surged to 9.444 billion yuan in 2024, more than doubling since 2021, primarily due to fixed asset depreciation from expanded production capacity [16] Production Capacity and Technology Investment - Huike's production capacity is expected to reach 7.69 million large panels in 2024, a 30% increase from 2021, although its production line count is less than competitors like BOE and TCL [17][18] - The company is investing over 10 billion yuan in new technology directions, particularly MLED, with plans to raise 8.5 billion yuan through its IPO for projects including OLED R&D and Mini-LED manufacturing [6][20] - Huike's significant investment in MLED technology, totaling over 19 billion yuan, reflects its confidence in future growth, although the impact on profitability remains uncertain [21] Debt and Financial Strategy - As of the end of 2024, Huike's debt-to-asset ratio is 68.78%, which is 16 percentage points higher than the median of its peers, indicating a high level of financial leverage [22] - The company has formed partnerships with local state-owned enterprises to alleviate financial pressure, resulting in over 10 billion yuan in debt related to equity acquisitions [23][24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the mining and steel industries, aiming to prevent homogeneous competition and promote high-end and green transformation [1] - Mining ETFs, including the mining ETF (561330) and non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881), have seen an increase of over 2.5% [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance market sentiment and stimulate the long-dormant inventory cycle, leading to potential trading opportunities and improved supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry [1] Group 2 - Steel inventory has shown a continuous reduction, indicating a passive adjustment characteristic [1] - From 2021 to 2024, the steel industry's ROE and ROA are projected to decline to historical lows due to the downturn in the real estate market [1] - The concentration of capacity in the steel industry and the transition to high-quality green products may further optimize the supply-demand structure, aiding in the recovery of profitability [1]