事实上，作为全球领先的以锂为核心的新能源材料企业，天齐锂业早已实现锂资源100%自给自足，核 心资产涵盖澳洲格林布什锂辉石矿，布局智利SQM阿塔卡马盐湖等优质资源，成本优势显著，业绩弹 性突出。 当下，锂电行业回暖信号持续释放，全球锂市场正迎来供需格局重塑的关键转折。 券商研报指出，伴随锂电行业"反内卷"向纵深推进，产能向头部企业集中，高端产品结构性紧缺，势必 推动价格与盈利修复。与此同时，2026年全球储能出货增速将达35%以上，由此带动电芯及材料价格中 枢上行，锂盐价格有望继续向上突破。 在此行业景气度明朗向好的背景下，天齐锂业（002466）日前启动港股配股和零息可转债计划，合计融 资规模约60亿港币，旨在持续夯实核心能力。 具体而言，本次融资将用于支持公司及其子公司在锂领域的战略发展，包括项目开发及优化所需的资本 支出、对优质锂矿资产的收购，补充营运资金与一般企业用途。 2025年，公司预计业绩大幅改善，期间归母净利润预计3.69亿元至5.53亿元，较上年度扭亏为盈，核心 正是得益于公司锂矿定价周期优化与SQM投资收益的增长。 必须看到，核心锂矿产能控制是行业竞争的关键壁垒，融资支撑则是资源布局的核心 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the TDI industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The TDI price is rapidly increasing due to supply constraints caused by overseas incidents and recent maintenance of some TDI facilities [3][4] - Global TDI production capacity is accelerating towards China, with Wanhua Chemical maintaining its leading position [3][19] - China's TDI exports have significantly increased, enhancing international competitiveness [3][24] - The current TDI inventory cycle may have transitioned to a passive destocking phase, with a potential shift towards an active restocking phase in the future [3][29] - The retail sales of furniture in China have shown a high year-on-year growth rate, driven by consumption stimulus policies such as "old-for-new" [3][33] Summary by Sections Incident Impact - An electrical fire at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany on July 12 caused a supply contraction of TDI due to the interruption of key raw materials like chlorine [2][4] - The affected TDI production capacity includes a 300,000 tons/year facility, with the duration of the force majeure event currently uncertain [2][4] Price Trends - TDI prices have surged, with European producers raising prices by €500/ton (approximately RMB 4,160/ton) on July 17 [5] - Domestic prices in East China for TDI rose from approximately RMB 13,800-14,100/ton to RMB 14,800-15,200/ton within a few days, indicating a daily increase of about RMB 700-1,000 [5] Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Global TDI capacity is currently 3.367 million tons, with Asia accounting for 2.427 million tons (72.1%), and China's capacity reaching 1.64 million tons (48.7% of global capacity) [18] - By 2026, global TDI capacity is expected to increase to 3.767 million tons, with China's share rising to 2.11 million tons (55.9% of global capacity) [18][19] Company Focus - Wanhua Chemical is highlighted as a key player, with current TDI capacity of 1.11 million tons (33% of global capacity), projected to reach 1.52 million tons (40.4% of global capacity) by 2026 [3][19] - Recent overseas capacity reductions and the exit of several foreign producers have further solidified Wanhua's competitive edge [19] Export Trends - China's TDI exports have transitioned from a net import state to a net export state since 2012, with net exports exceeding 300,000 tons annually from 2021 to 2024 [24][26] - In the first five months of 2025, net exports reached 220,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [26] Inventory and Demand Outlook - The TDI inventory cycle is currently in a passive destocking phase, with expectations of transitioning to an active restocking phase if demand recovers in line with capacity releases [29] - The demand for TDI is supported by strong retail sales in the furniture sector and growth in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles [33]