Investment Rating - The investment rating for the TDI industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The TDI price is rapidly increasing due to supply constraints caused by overseas incidents and recent maintenance of some TDI facilities [3][4] - Global TDI production capacity is accelerating towards China, with Wanhua Chemical maintaining its leading position [3][19] - China's TDI exports have significantly increased, enhancing international competitiveness [3][24] - The current TDI inventory cycle may have transitioned to a passive destocking phase, with a potential shift towards an active restocking phase in the future [3][29] - The retail sales of furniture in China have shown a high year-on-year growth rate, driven by consumption stimulus policies such as "old-for-new" [3][33] Summary by Sections Incident Impact - An electrical fire at Covestro's Dormagen plant in Germany on July 12 caused a supply contraction of TDI due to the interruption of key raw materials like chlorine [2][4] - The affected TDI production capacity includes a 300,000 tons/year facility, with the duration of the force majeure event currently uncertain [2][4] Price Trends - TDI prices have surged, with European producers raising prices by €500/ton (approximately RMB 4,160/ton) on July 17 [5] - Domestic prices in East China for TDI rose from approximately RMB 13,800-14,100/ton to RMB 14,800-15,200/ton within a few days, indicating a daily increase of about RMB 700-1,000 [5] Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Global TDI capacity is currently 3.367 million tons, with Asia accounting for 2.427 million tons (72.1%), and China's capacity reaching 1.64 million tons (48.7% of global capacity) [18] - By 2026, global TDI capacity is expected to increase to 3.767 million tons, with China's share rising to 2.11 million tons (55.9% of global capacity) [18][19] Company Focus - Wanhua Chemical is highlighted as a key player, with current TDI capacity of 1.11 million tons (33% of global capacity), projected to reach 1.52 million tons (40.4% of global capacity) by 2026 [3][19] - Recent overseas capacity reductions and the exit of several foreign producers have further solidified Wanhua's competitive edge [19] Export Trends - China's TDI exports have transitioned from a net import state to a net export state since 2012, with net exports exceeding 300,000 tons annually from 2021 to 2024 [24][26] - In the first five months of 2025, net exports reached 220,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [26] Inventory and Demand Outlook - The TDI inventory cycle is currently in a passive destocking phase, with expectations of transitioning to an active restocking phase if demand recovers in line with capacity releases [29] - The demand for TDI is supported by strong retail sales in the furniture sector and growth in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles [33]