来源|凤凰网《风暴眼》 文| 张沃若 面板产业的权杖交替，从来不是温和的交接仪式，而是一场场血腥的 "消耗战"，只有看谁先流干最后一滴血，才能决定王座归属。 2025年11月19日，京东方与三星的专利大战暂且偃旗息鼓，双方宣布撤回在美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)的337调查及所有关联诉讼，终止持续三年的 OLED商业秘密纠纷。 战场上的硝烟并未散去，只是换了一种弥漫方式。韩国勉强守住了 OLED桥头堡，中国则赢得了继续冲锋的通行证。 只是这场持续了三十年的全球面板产业争雄史，此刻却缺失了一个角色 ——那个曾用特丽珑和液晶技术定义过两个时代的日本，身影已然模糊。 01 被日本技术铁幕笼罩的二十年 1980年元旦，北京东风电视机厂的工人们围着一台松下18寸彩电啧啧称奇。这台从日本漂洋过海来的"稀罕物"，售价相当于普通人三年工资，还需 搭配外汇券和侨汇券才能请神归位。当松下的工程师在车间调试生产线时，没人想到这条流水线将改写两个国家的产业命运。 此后的十数年里，青岛、大连的港口永远灯火通明。三井物产的货轮不断将东芝、夏普、松下的产品卸往中国市场，此时的中国家庭，在经历 "三大 件"消费升级浪潮，日本家电企业以精密制造 ...

Group 1: Storage Market Dynamics - The recent surge in storage prices and the volatility of related company stocks have drawn renewed attention to the industry chain [2] - The demand for HBM storage driven by AI development is squeezing DRAM production capacity, leading to increased costs for smartphones and PCs [2][8] - TrendForce has revised down its global smartphone and laptop production forecasts for 2026, projecting declines of 2% and 2.4% respectively [2][11] Group 2: Display Panel Industry Growth - Over the past two decades, China's display panel industry has transformed from dependency on imports to becoming the world's largest manufacturing base [3][4] - The domestic display supply chain is more stable and complete compared to storage chips, giving Chinese manufacturers greater control [3] - The market size of China's display panel industry reached 396.2 billion yuan, accounting for 68.2% of the global market [5] Group 3: OLED Technology Advancements - Chinese manufacturers are heavily investing in OLED technology, with companies like Tianma and BOE establishing advanced production lines [5][7] - By the first half of 2025, Chinese manufacturers are expected to hold a 51.7% share of the global AMOLED smartphone panel market [7] - The demand for AMOLED panels is rising, while LCD panels maintain stable shipments in entry-level markets [7][11] Group 4: Cost Pressures and Strategic Responses - The increase in storage chip prices is expected to raise the BOM cost of smartphones by approximately 5-7% next year [8][9] - The share of storage in laptop BOM costs is projected to exceed 20% by 2026, leading to potential price increases of 5-15% for laptops [9][11] - Manufacturers are adjusting their product strategies, potentially reducing screen quality in lower-end models to manage costs [11][12] Group 5: Collaboration and Innovation - Companies are moving towards deep collaboration with panel manufacturers, shifting from traditional supplier relationships to joint technology development [16][20] - Xiaomi has established joint laboratories with panel manufacturers to enhance the entire supply chain [20][21] - The shift towards a collaborative model is seen as essential for competing with global leaders like Apple and for driving innovation in the display industry [21]

Group 1: Smartphone Panel Market - The global smartphone panel shipment volume is projected to reach 586 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The growth is primarily driven by the iPhone 17 series and new product launches from other major smartphone brands in the second half of the year [2] - AMOLED panel demand continues to rise, while LCD panel shipments remain stable in the entry-level smartphone and repair markets [2] - The total smartphone panel shipment volume for 2025 is expected to reach 2.243 billion units, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is a recent peak [2] Group 2: Memory Industry Capital Expenditure - The average selling price (ASP) of memory products is on the rise, leading to increased profitability for suppliers [5] - Capital expenditure for DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to continue to rise; however, the contribution to bit output growth in 2026 will be limited [5] - The investment focus in the DRAM and NAND Flash industries is shifting from merely expanding capacity to upgrading process technologies, high-layer stacking, hybrid bonding, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products [5]

Group 1 - Blue Origin is set to execute its first NASA mission with the "New Glenn" rocket, challenging SpaceX's dominance in the space industry [2] - Nvidia's CEO has requested TSMC to increase 3nm wafer capacity by 50% to meet surging demand for Blackwell AI chips, raising monthly production from 100,000-110,000 to approximately 160,000 wafers [2] - The AS700 manned airship, developed by China Aviation Industry Corporation, has been delivered to Zhejiang Province, marking the first of its kind in East China [2] Group 2 - Global smartphone panel shipments increased by 8.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, driven by the iPhone 17 series and other major brands, with an expected annual total of 2.243 billion units [2] - China successfully launched 13 low-orbit satellite internet satellites using the Long March 12 rocket, marking a significant achievement in satellite internet deployment [2]

Market Overview - The main board saw significant gains with companies like Victory Precision (+10.09%), Weixin Nuo (+10.04%), and Jin An Guoji (+10.02%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board also performed well, with Online Offline (+20.00%) and Ying Tang Zhi Kong (+19.96%) showing strong increases [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was led by Shen Gong Co. (+20.00%) and Ying Fang Software (+14.28%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Other Electronics III (+3.66%) and SW Semiconductor Materials (+3.34%) [1] Domestic News - Xinju Semiconductor successfully delivered its first fully self-developed electrochemical deposition equipment (ECD) to a leading domestic client, achieving high yield small batch production [1] - Jiangbolong launched an integrated packaging mSSD that reduces the number of solder points from nearly 1000 to zero, addressing reliability issues in PCBA production [1] - Hefei Chip Valley Microelectronics released a 0.3-3.5GHz GaAs MMIC bidirectional amplifier chip, providing a high integration RF front-end solution for half-duplex communication systems [1] - Winbond reported a recovery in demand for NOR Flash in server and data center applications, particularly for 512Mb and 1-2Gb high-capacity needs [1] Company Announcements - Jiulian Technology announced progress on a major asset restructuring, receiving preliminary approval from national defense authorities, but due diligence is still ongoing [3] - Chaoying Electronics plans to invest approximately 146.78 million RMB in expanding AI high-end printed circuit board production in Thailand to enhance competitiveness [3] - Wentai Technology reported progress on a major asset sale, with most assets in India transferred, pending land ownership changes [3] - State Grid Information announced that its subsidiaries won three procurement projects from the State Grid, totaling 1.318 billion RMB [3] Overseas News - NVIDIA's CEO confirmed that the company has officially requested additional wafer orders from TSMC to meet the explosive market demand for the new "Blackwell" GPU series [4] - SanDisk raised its NAND flash contract prices by 50% for November, indicating tightening supply in the memory market driven by AI data center demand and wafer supply shortages [4] - TrendForce reported that global smartphone panel shipments are expected to reach 586 million units in Q3 2025, driven by new iPhone models and other major brands [4] - The European semiconductor market continued to grow, with sales reaching 14.07 billion USD in Q3 2025, a 7.2% increase from the previous quarter [4]

Core Insights - The global smartphone panel shipment is projected to reach 586 million units in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3% driven by the iPhone 17 series and other major brands' new releases [2] - The total smartphone panel shipment for 2025 is expected to be 2.243 billion units, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, representing a recent peak [2] AMOLED Panel Insights - Q3 2025 AMOLED smartphone panel shipments reached 246 million units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.9% [3] - The increasing adoption of AMOLED panels in mid-range models is expected to enhance overall penetration rates [3] - Samsung Display maintains a 40% market share in the high-end segment, while BOE continues to supply iPhone and other major brands [4] LCD Panel Insights - Q3 2025 LCD smartphone panel shipments increased by 6.9% to 340 million units [4] - BOE leads the market with over 30% shipment share, while HKC and TCL Huaxing are also increasing their a-Si LCD shipments [4] - The low-end a-Si LCD market is supported by cost advantages and demand from the after-sales repair market, while LTPS LCD demand continues to decline [4] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The growth momentum for the smartphone panel market in 2025 is primarily driven by the rising penetration of AMOLED technology and close collaboration between Chinese panel manufacturers and brands [6] - Despite limited overall smartphone demand growth, AMOLED panels are expected to expand steadily due to technological upgrades and cost reductions, while LCD will continue to support the entry-level market [6] - By 2026, it is anticipated that AMOLED panel shipments will exceed 45% of the market, with LCD maintaining around 55% [6]

Core Insights - The global smartphone panel shipment is projected to reach 586 million units in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, driven by the iPhone 17 series and new releases from major brands [1] - The total smartphone panel shipment for 2025 is expected to be 2.243 billion units, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, representing a recent peak [1] Group 1: Major Panel Manufacturers' Performance - BOE remains the global leader in panel shipments with over 145 million units in Q3, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3% [2] - CSOT's a-Si LCD shipments saw a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5%, reaching 75.5 million units [2] - Tianma's overall shipments increased by 25.1% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 56.3 million units, driven by a-Si LCD demand [2] - SDC's shipments exceeded 100 million units, growing by 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from the iPhone launch [2] - LGD's shipments increased by 16.7% to 21 million units, with expectations to supply over 80 million iPhone panels for the year [2] - Innolux's shipments remained at 23.2 million units despite a reduction in mobile application shipments [2] Group 2: AMOLED and LCD Market Trends - AMOLED panel shipments reached 246 million units in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.9%, driven by increased adoption in mid-range models [2] - SDC continues to dominate the mid-to-high-end market with a 40% shipment share, while BOE maintains stable supply for iPhone and other major brands [2] - The Q3 LCD panel shipments increased by 6.9% to 340 million units, with BOE holding over 40% market share [3] - The demand for low-end a-Si LCD remains strong due to cost advantages and after-sales market needs, while LTPS LCD demand continues to decline [3] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The growth momentum for the smartphone panel market in 2025 will primarily come from the rising penetration of AMOLED and close collaboration between Chinese panel manufacturers and brands [5] - Despite limited overall smartphone demand growth, AMOLED is expected to expand steadily due to technological upgrades and cost reductions, while LCD will continue to support the entry-level market [5] - By 2026, AMOLED panel shipments are projected to exceed 45% of the market share, while LCD will maintain around 55%, with Korean suppliers dominating the high-end market and Chinese manufacturers accelerating penetration into the mid-to-high-end market [5]

Core Insights - The global OLED laptop panel market is expected to reach a shipment volume of 12.7 million units by 2025, with a market penetration rate of 6% [1] - Rigid OLED (ROLED) will dominate the market with an estimated shipment of 12.1 million units, representing a 31% year-on-year growth [1][7] - Flexible OLED (FOLED) is projected to have a shipment of approximately 600,000 units, driven by flagship models like Huawei's 18-inch foldable PC [1] Market Trends - The OLED laptop market is witnessing rapid innovation, with new products being launched, such as Lenovo's Yoga Air X AI and Huawei's MateBook Fold [2] - The introduction of high-performance OLED screens is aligned with the trends in AI PC technology and the critical product iteration cycle in the PC market [2] Product Strategy - Samsung Display (SDC) is implementing a dual product strategy targeting both mainstream lightweight laptops and high-end gaming laptops, which is expected to enhance ROLED's market presence [6] - The mainstream FHD+ specifications for 14-inch and 16-inch laptops are being introduced to cater to traditional PC brands [6] Market Capacity and Production - The upcoming G8.6 OLED production lines are set to significantly impact the laptop panel market, with four new lines expected to come online in the next two years [10][11] - The G8.6 OLED production lines will focus on both Hybrid OLED and FOLED technologies, which offer advantages in display quality and thinness compared to traditional LCDs [11][15] Future Projections - By 2026, G8.6 OLED shipments are expected to reach around 1.7 million units, primarily driven by demand from Apple’s MacBook Pro [15] - The market for Hybrid OLED is anticipated to grow significantly by 2029, as it becomes the dominant technology in the high-end to mid-range laptop segments [18] Competitive Landscape - The competition between OLED and LCD technologies is expected to intensify, leading to a rapid upgrade in specifications across the laptop market [19] - The next five years are projected to be a revolutionary period for laptop display solutions, focusing on lighter, thinner, and smarter technologies [19]

TCL Technology Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: TCL Technology - **Industry**: Display Technology and Renewable Energy Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 135.9 billion CNY for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2][5] - **Net Profit**: 3.05 billion CNY, an increase of 15.2 billion CNY year-on-year [2][5] - **Solar Energy Segment**: Reported a loss of 1.73 billion CNY, impacting overall profitability [2][5] Strategic Developments - **Acquisition of LGD Production Line**: Integration is progressing smoothly, with internal systems aligned and new glass products in mass production [2][9] - **OLED Production**: Launch of the world's first high-generation printed OLED production line (T8 project) with a total investment of 29.5 billion CNY, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2][10] - **Debt Management**: Aiming to reduce the asset-liability ratio to normal levels within the next 2-3 years through improved profitability and operational efficiency [2][11][12] Market Outlook - **TV Panel Demand**: Expected growth of 1%-2% in demand and over 5% in area for the next year, with supply area growth around 3% [2][6] - **OLED Market Challenges**: Facing price pressure and uncertain demand, particularly in flexible OLEDs, but opportunities exist in the foldable phone market [7][8] - **LCD Panel Production**: Focused on large-size TV panels, with an expected increase in utilization rates by 1-2 percentage points next year [4][25] Segment Performance - **IT Panel Market**: Stable demand with a shift towards AI-related functionalities, leading to increased competition among Chinese manufacturers [28][29] - **Solar Energy Business**: Significant loss reduction in Q3 due to improved industry supply-demand dynamics and cost control measures [13][20] Future Plans - **Capital Expenditure**: Planned investments will be more conservative, focusing on small-scale upgrades rather than large new projects [10] - **Share Buyback**: Ongoing plans for share repurchase as production lines transition to operational phases [17] - **Dividend Policy**: Commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of at least 30% in the coming years [21] Additional Insights - **Inventory Management**: Current inventory levels are slightly above normal, with plans for adjustments through price changes [14] - **Regional Sales Dynamics**: North America leads in TV consumption, while China and Western Europe follow [15][16] - **Depreciation Trends**: Anticipated decrease in depreciation starting in 2026, with a significant drop expected in 2027 [18] This summary encapsulates the key points from the TCL Technology conference call, highlighting financial performance, strategic initiatives, market outlook, and future plans.

Core Insights - The new display industry has become a focal point in global technology competition, with increasing penetration in flexible, foldable displays, and AI glasses [2] - Chinese display panel manufacturers have achieved nearly 50% of the global OLED market share in Q2 this year, marking a historical high [2][6] - TCL's investment in the world's first 8.6-generation printed OLED production line in Guangzhou is expected to significantly enhance China's position in the new display industry [3][8] Industry Developments - Major cities like Guangzhou, Hefei, and Beijing are emerging as winners in the new display industry, with TCL's T8 project set to commence in November with an investment of approximately 29.5 billion yuan [3][10] - The competition among leading panel manufacturers is increasingly focused on high-end display technologies like OLED, with Samsung and LG Display shutting down LCD factories to pivot towards OLED [4] - The investment in the T8 project is seen as a critical move for Guangzhou to develop a high-end display industry and to address long-standing issues of high costs and low yield in medium-sized OLED production [8][10] Market Trends - The IT device OLED market is experiencing a "gold rush," prompting accelerated construction and mass production of display production lines, with investments exceeding 50 billion yuan in the first half of the year [5] - Major Chinese panel manufacturers, including BOE and Visionox, have announced investments in 8.6-generation OLED production lines, totaling 63 billion yuan and 55 billion yuan respectively [6] - The T8 project aims to process approximately 22,500 glass substrates monthly, positioning China as a leader in high-generation AMOLED technology [8] Future Outlook - The T8 project is expected to achieve mass production between 2027 and 2028, coinciding with a surge in demand for medium-sized OLEDs, thereby enhancing Guangzhou's display industry ecosystem [12] - The display industry's future will involve deeper integration with various sectors, moving beyond traditional screens to applications like flexible displays and smart glasses [13][14] - Guangzhou's strategy to become a "world display capital" involves attracting major projects and fostering industry clusters, with a focus on technological innovation and market competitiveness [15][16]