Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's population will continue to grow over the next few decades, but the growth rate will gradually slow down, with a peak expected around 2059, after which it will enter a phase of slow growth or stabilization [1] Group 1: Population Growth and Projections - Vietnam's population is projected to increase by 2.5%, 12.7%, and 17.0% under low, medium, and high fertility scenarios, respectively, reaching approximately 103.9 million, 114.2 million, and 118.5 million by 2074 [1] - The "golden demographic structure period," characterized by a labor force population (ages 15-64) to dependent population (ages under 15 and over 65) ratio of about 2:1, will end in 2036, three years earlier than previously predicted [2] Group 2: Aging Population and Societal Implications - Vietnam is entering an aging process, with projections indicating that it will become an "aging society" by 2034, when the population aged 65 and above will account for 14% [2] - The aging phase is expected to last approximately 15 years (2034-2049), followed by a "super-aged society" from 2050 to 2074, where the population aged 65 and above will exceed 21% [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Economic Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of leveraging the advantages of the golden demographic structure in the next decade, as it significantly impacts economic growth and national competitiveness [2] - It suggests prioritizing workforce skills training, particularly in digital skills, vocational skills, and technical adaptability, to address the rapid digital transformation [2] - Improving labor productivity, working conditions, and creating a favorable employment environment are also recommended to support economic development [2] Group 4: Societal Challenges - The report highlights the long-standing issue of imbalanced sex ratios at birth and notes that domestic population movement remains a significant factor affecting regional population distribution, reflecting disparities in development conditions and labor attraction capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's high-quality development, facing multiple challenges such as macroeconomic changes, demographic shifts, and employment issues, necessitating systematic responses from institutional design and resource allocation [4] Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Current macroeconomic patterns show a "failure of traditional rules," where short-term shocks and long-term structural factors interact, complicating the relationship between inflation and unemployment [5] - The aging population is a long-term factor that suppresses inflation, raising concerns about its impact on economic vitality [5] Group 2: Competition and Economic Efficiency - "Involution" in competition leads to a decline in potential growth rates, slowing productivity growth and reducing investment returns, resulting in a contraction of market size [6] - Over-investment in traditional sectors delays the transition to new growth drivers, causing a series of negative effects including weak CPI and declining employment quality [6] Group 3: Demographic Challenges - The dual pressures of low birth rates and rapid aging are significant challenges during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the total fertility rate falling below replacement levels since 1992 [8] - The aging population increases the old-age dependency ratio, straining pension fund sustainability and creating a demand for elderly care that the current supply system struggles to meet [8] Group 4: Consumption Dynamics - The demographic structure negatively impacts consumption potential, with younger populations decreasing and older individuals having limited consumption capacity due to low labor participation and insufficient social security [9] Group 5: Employment Market Characteristics - The employment market is characterized by new forms of employment, with 310 million individuals in urban self-employment and private sectors, and 200 million in flexible employment as of 2023 [10] - Labor mobility is becoming more localized, which may hinder overall productivity growth [10] Group 6: Policy Recommendations - The focus should shift from merely expanding the economy to improving income distribution, addressing urban-rural income disparities, and enhancing social equity [13] - Investment should transition from physical assets to human capital, emphasizing education and health to foster sustainable economic growth [14]