Core Viewpoint - The market rally at the beginning of 2026 may face challenges due to high stock valuations and the risk of not meeting earnings expectations [1][2]. Valuation and Earnings Expectations - The forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 22 times, significantly above the 10-year average of 18.7 times, indicating a high valuation similar to the peak in January 2022, which preceded a bear market [2]. - S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 15% for the year, with the strongest growth expected in Q4 at 18.1% [3]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The December jobs report showed only 50,000 jobs created, falling short of the consensus estimate of 70,000, which could dampen optimism regarding corporate earnings in early 2026 [4]. - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to occur if inflation continues to cool, but the current stock market levels complicate this scenario [5]. Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks - The Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could significantly impact market dynamics, with potential for additional sectoral tariffs if current tariffs are deemed illegal [6]. - Geopolitical risks have resurfaced, particularly following actions taken by the Trump administration regarding Venezuela, which could further influence market stability [7].

来源：智通财经 智通财经12月24日讯（编辑 潇湘）随着2025年步入尾声，如果要盘点过去一年中表现最为"神奇"的资产，那么30年期美国国债或许足以占据一席之地…… 诚然，其涨幅远不及AI概念股或黄金白银那样惊人表现。事实上，今年30年期美国国债的价格甚至都未见上涨。 但其"神奇"的地方或许也恰恰在此——考虑到过去12个月所经历的动荡，它本应遭受重创。然而截至本文撰稿时，它正朝着与年初几乎持平的水平进行年度 收官，仅此一点就足以堪称非凡。 我们可以先来思考这么几个问题： 假如你回到今年1月1日并被告知，黄金将飙升近70%、突破每盎司4400美元，华尔街将迎来四分之一个世纪以来最大的科技繁荣，且金融条件将 是三年来最宽松的，你可能很快就会脑补出长期债券收益率上升（价格下跌）的场景…… 如果你还被告知，美国通胀将在未来一年持续高于目标水平，美元将暴跌近10%，美债的"期限溢价"将升至十多年来的最高水平，而央行独立性 这一曾被视为神圣不可侵犯的观念，将因特朗普政府对美联储的持续攻击而几近崩溃，又会怎样？ 若这还不够，那再加上特朗普的"大而美法案"将在未来十年推高数万亿美元预算赤字，助推"美元贬值"交易呢？是不是彻底 ...