美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.2% 12月8日，人民币中间价报7.0764，下调15点，上一交易日中间价报7.0749，在岸人民币上一交易日收报 7.0706。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.2%，维持利率不变的概率为13.8%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为65.4%，维持利率不变的概率为9.8%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为24.8%。 ...

Core Insights - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts and strong domestic stock market performance [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a clear signal for interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, reinforcing expectations for a September rate cut [1] - US employment and inflation data have strengthened the anticipation of a rate cut, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which provides passive appreciation momentum for non-USD currencies [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic stock market has shown strength, resulting in accelerated foreign capital inflows, which have increased demand for currency exchange and improved market sentiment [1] - The central bank's management of the RMB's midpoint rate has played a significant role in maintaining a stronger RMB [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the RMB is expected to continue operating on a stronger trajectory, with future attention needed on the movements of the USD and the central bank's control over the RMB midpoint rate [1]

"6月下旬CFETS（中国外汇交易中心）等三大人民币汇率指数降至年内低点后，中间价调控力度开始加 大。这不仅推动了人民币对美元汇率上升，其主要目标更是引导一篮子货币人民币汇率指数适度上 行。"王青认为，这背后或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇率虽有所 升值但未能与之充分匹配有关。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，近期人民币对美元汇率的升值，主要受到美元指数偏弱运行创造的相 对温和的外部环境、央行中间价报价释放较强汇率预期引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼、吸引外 资流入等内外因素共振的驱动。 短期内，王青预计，综合各类影响因素，人民币汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态。未来需重点关注美元走势 和人民币中间价调控力度。 明明则认为，人民币汇率有望保持偏强的态势，并逐步回归"三价合一"。随着年底临近，若人民币汇率 能维持偏强震荡，预计相关结汇需求将继续支撑人民币汇率。 （文章来源：证券日报） 8月下旬以来，人民币对美元汇率保持稳中偏强态势。 Wind资讯数据显示，8月21日以来截至9月13日（北京时间，下同），在岸人民币对美元汇率上涨 0.79%，而更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率则上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether the RMB/USD exchange rate will break the "7" level is increasing, with analysts suggesting that multiple factors will influence this outcome, including the China-US interest rate differential, the willingness of holders to convert currency, and the RMB central parity rate. Overall, the probability of breaking 7 in the short term is considered low [2][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In the last week of August, the RMB appreciated significantly against the USD, reaching a high of 7.1260 on August 29, the highest since November of the previous year. Despite a slight pullback in September, the RMB has appreciated over 2100 points, or nearly 3%, from its low of 7.3506 in early April [2][3]. - The RMB's performance in 2023 has been volatile, with initial appreciation in a weak USD environment, followed by depreciation due to concerns over global trade after the announcement of US tariffs in April, and subsequent recovery after high-level China-US economic meetings [2][3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a combination of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, domestic policy guidance, and market sentiment. The Fed's hints at potential interest rate cuts have created a favorable external environment for RMB appreciation [3][4]. - The RMB's exchange rate against a basket of currencies has shown a decline of 4.8% since the end of last year, with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported at 96.57 on August 29 [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Differential and Market Sentiment - The interest rate differential between China and the US has narrowed significantly, with the 10-year Chinese bond yield rising over 20 basis points since June, while the US bond yield has decreased from 4.5% to around 4.2%. This has led to a reduction in the nominal interest rate differential by nearly 50 basis points [5]. - Analysts suggest that while a weak USD environment supports RMB appreciation, factors such as weak export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery will require a steady pace of appreciation [5]. Group 4: Currency Conversion Willingness - The willingness of currency holders to convert is a critical factor, with expectations of "panic conversion" among export enterprises potentially driving the offshore RMB above 7.0 in late 2024. However, analysts believe that the likelihood of such panic conversion is low due to increased hedging by exporters [5][6]. Group 5: Central Bank's Role - The central parity rate of the RMB is a significant variable, with analysts suggesting that the People's Bank of China may adopt a gradual approach to adjusting the central parity rate to avoid excessive volatility in the stock and currency markets [7]. - The central bank's management of the RMB's central parity rate will be crucial in determining the exchange rate's trajectory, with a focus on maintaining market autonomy while preventing excessive appreciation expectations [7].

8月27日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升80点至7.1108，中间价升值至2024年11月6日以来最高。 美联储9月降息概率为87.8% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为12.2%，降息25个基点的概率为87.8%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为6.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为50.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 43.2%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...