2026年刚开局，黄仁勋在CES宣告：人工智能正在从数字世界走向物理世界。这意味着，AI即将从"会说话的头脑"，演变为"会动手的身体"。 在此之前，埃隆·马斯克抛出了更具体、也更激进的时间表：通用人工智能可能在2026年实现；到2030年，AI的总体智力将超越全人类。他更是预警说， 接下来的3到7年，将会非常难熬。 今天带你走近同样在思考AI未来可能性的新锐学者张笑宇在《AI文明史·前史》这本书中提供的独特视角。 希望今天的分享，对你有所启发。 一、理解"涌现"：AI时代的第一课 好，我们开始聊第一个概念，也是所有奇迹的起点：涌现。 这个词听起来有点太学术，但我说个场景你就懂了。 但是，当我们把数以千亿计的神经元，通过复杂的层级连接在一起，并给它"喂"入人类有史以来几乎所有的文字、图像、声音后，某个时刻，质变发生 了。 这个庞大的系统，突然不再是机械地统计词汇，而是开始"理解"你提的问题，并"组织"出逻辑通顺的回答。 这种质变，就是智能的"涌现"。它不是由某个程序员写一行"现在开始具有智能"的代码命令出来的，而是当系统的复杂程度达到某个临界点后，自 己"冒"出来的、全新的能力。 你从蚁巢里单独抓出一只蚂蚁，放 ...

我们聊了聊他书里的四个核心概念，和他提出的许多颠覆人类中心主义的观点，比如AI不是人类的工具，而很可能是新的文明；AI会取代99%的人类工 作，还会彻底颠覆人类现在的社会结构；1%的人怎么对待99%的人，AI未来就会怎么对待我们……以及借由AI带来的新视角，我们如何重新理解人类自 身，理解人性和人的价值。 除了这些抽象的逻辑和观点，我们也聊了聊他观察到的一些AI领域有益、有启发的尝试。张笑宇平时大量和AI创业者交流，"众所周知这些人都是零零 后"，作为一个零零后，我也和他聊了聊这一代年轻人的选择，比如和AI谈恋爱、AI发展带来的对优绩主义的反思等等。 三年前，ChatGPT发布。今天，AI已经不是北上广的年轻人才会讨论的新鲜名词，远在农村的奶奶或许也知道DeepSeek，会和豆包聊天。AI几乎像水、 电、互联网一样，正在成为我们生活的基础设施。特殊之处在于，AI是直接生产智能的技术，而智力正是过去人类最引以为傲的东西。如果智能能被以 极低的成本、极高的效率量产，人类社会会发生什么？ 几乎和访谈同时间，马斯克在特斯拉超级工厂接受的访谈中"暴言"，人类已身处技术奇点，2026年将会是AGI实现之年。我们无法论断未 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that while AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is approaching, there is a lack of deep societal reflection on how the post-AI era will function, particularly in terms of social, economic, political, and ethical transformations [1][2] - The urgency of understanding the implications of the post-AI society is emphasized, with a call for a comprehensive theoretical framework to analyze these changes [2][3] - Zhang Xiaoyu, a scholar with 20 years of experience in political philosophy, is exploring the complex relationships between technology, business, and state destiny, aiming to outline the societal changes brought by the post-AI era [2][4] Group 2 - The discussion highlights the foundational impact of technology on human civilization, suggesting that technology fundamentally alters societal structures and interactions [6][7] - The conversation shifts from immediate concerns about AI's challenges to a deeper understanding of how to conceptualize and interpret the changes AI brings to society [9][10] - Zhang identifies two fundamental principles for understanding the AI era: the emergence law, which states that complex phenomena can arise from simple rules when scaled sufficiently, and the human equivalent, which quantifies human intellectual output in terms of tokens [11][12] Group 3 - The economic implications of AI are discussed, contrasting AI's deflationary impact on employment with the inflationary effects of past technological revolutions like the steam engine [19][20] - The potential for AI to replace a significant portion of jobs is acknowledged, with a focus on the simplicity of tasks being more susceptible to automation [24][23] - The conversation also touches on the societal divide that may emerge, where a small percentage of individuals remain irreplaceable by AI, leading to a significant gap between the "1%" and the "99%" [27][28] Group 4 - The future of human relationships in a post-AI world is examined, suggesting that emotional connections may become less valuable as AI can replicate emotional interactions efficiently [37][38] - The political landscape may shift towards algorithmic governance, where AI serves as an impartial judge, potentially replacing traditional state functions [42][43] - The concept of a new social contract in the AI era is introduced, where the relationship between humans and advanced AI is framed as a time-based agreement rather than a spatial one [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the profound impact of AI on societal structures, emphasizing the need to shift from "what to do" in response to AI to "how to understand" its implications for humanity and society [6][11]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Society - AI is expected to work with thousands of times the efficiency of humans in all areas requiring intelligence, fundamentally reshaping social structures, family dynamics, politics, and education [12][14]. - The emergence of AI will lead to a significant widening of the social gap, potentially creating a "species-level" divide between those who control AI and the majority who do not [16][17]. Group 2: Principles for Understanding AI - Four foundational principles are proposed for understanding AI's impact: Emergence, Human Equivalence, Algorithmic Judgment, and Civilizational Contract [12][28]. - The Emergence principle suggests that simple rules can lead to complex phenomena when scaled, similar to how human intelligence and AI intelligence may arise from complex systems [13][28]. - The Human Equivalence principle quantifies AI's efficiency in producing intelligence compared to humans, indicating that AI can perform tasks at a fraction of the cost and time [14][28]. Group 3: Economic and Social Changes - The cost of services and goods may drastically decrease due to AI, leading to a more affluent society in some sectors while exacerbating inequalities in others [17][18]. - The need for a governance structure is highlighted, including Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Universal Basic Jobs (UBG), to address the psychological and economic needs of individuals in an AI-dominated world [18][19]. Group 4: Ethical and Philosophical Considerations - The article raises questions about the ethical implications of AI as a "judgment" entity, suggesting that AI could become a neutral arbiter in societal matters, reminiscent of historical concepts of divine judgment [23][24]. - The potential for a "Civilizational Contract" between humans and superintelligent AI is discussed, emphasizing the need for a new understanding of justice and existence in the age of AI [25][26].

Group 1 - The core argument is that AI is fundamentally changing societal structures, rendering traditional measures of self-worth, such as education and job titles, less relevant as AI can perform tasks at a fraction of the cost and with significantly higher efficiency [1][18][21] - The discussion around AI has shifted from "what to do" in response to job displacement to "how to perceive" the broader implications of AI on society [2][11] - AI's efficiency in performing intelligent tasks is projected to be thousands of times greater than that of humans, leading to a complete reshaping of social, familial, and political structures [3][18][21] Group 2 - The concept of "emergence" suggests that simple rules can lead to complex phenomena when applied at a large scale, which is applicable to both human and AI intelligence [14][15] - The "human equivalent" principle indicates that AI can produce intellectual output at a cost significantly lower than human labor, with AI capable of processing vast amounts of data rapidly [16][17] - The "algorithmic judgment" principle posits that as AI becomes more prevalent, the economic and social structures will shift, potentially leading to a widening gap between those who control AI resources and those who do not [22][26] Group 3 - The potential for a "species-level" divide between the 1% who control AI and the 99% who do not could lead to significant societal challenges, including the risk of economic and existential marginalization for the majority [26][27] - Proposed governance structures include Universal Basic Income (UBI) to address survival needs, Universal Basic Jobs (UBG) to provide a sense of purpose, and algorithmic distribution to ensure equitable resource allocation [27][29][30] - The emergence of a "civilization contract" between humans and superintelligent AI raises questions about the nature of justice and the moral implications of AI governance [40][41][48]