Core Insights - The meeting between the two national leaders is still "on the schedule," but significant differences between the U.S. and China have been exposed, making the outcome uncertain [1] - The U.S. officials' views reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of China's position, particularly regarding technology sanctions and retaliatory measures [2][3] - The differing perspectives on the rare earth agreement indicate a lack of alignment in negotiations, with U.S. officials possibly underestimating the implications of China's policies [4] Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. officials believe that China's economic issues will limit its negotiation power, a premise that is increasingly being challenged [5] - The concept of "tit for tat" is evident in China's response to U.S. sanctions, showcasing a more assertive trade negotiation strategy [7][8] - China's recent actions, such as imposing port fees on U.S. ships, reflect a calculated approach to maintain its long-term competitive advantage while avoiding excessive damage to the global economy [11][12] Group 2: Strategic Implications - China's strategy appears to focus on long-term risks rather than short-term uncertainties, indicating a shift in its negotiation tactics [14] - The use of supply chain advantages as a countermeasure against U.S. actions signifies a strategic evolution in China's approach to trade disputes [14] - The ongoing negotiations are characterized by significant distributive issues, where both sides have core demands that are difficult to reconcile, potentially complicating future discussions [17]

其实这篇文章应该是周末发的，但我当时想先和Mike把这个内容的播客做了再发，结果周末嗓子哑了没法做播 客，结果就等到了今天。昨天有朋友问我为啥觉得这次和2018年关税有点不一样，以及为什么会觉得中国在结构 性改革上非常迟疑。所以我就一并简单分享一下。 我非常讨厌中国古代儒学里面那种微言大义，然后一天到晚钻牛角尖，我的演讲和文字技巧更多学习的是25～45 岁的毛泽东，1905～1935年的托洛茨基，以及大萧条后的罗斯福，这些演讲和文章，都有一个特点就是能用大家 都看得懂的方法写出先知一样的判断，这是一种我一直追求的境界。 我想先说一下关税的问题。在之前的文章里面，我记得反复说过，我们不能指望欧洲日本或者其他国家用中国一 样的反应去面对美国。然后一群人会把这个现象解读为他们跪了，一群人会把这个现象解读为中国不合群。但其 实这是非常正常的。 欧洲和日本是第一次面对关税的威胁，这对于他们来说是第一次加入这个关税博弈，而中国是不知道多少次加入 这个关税博弈，所以之前中国反击的时候，有很多声音说中国应该躺平，或者认为中国处在囚徒困境里面，这多 少都属于半桶水的水平。因为多次博弈和单次博弈最大的区别在于，多次博弈的人是会带 ...