夏宁 2012年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、市场设计奠基人埃尔文・E・罗斯（Alvin E . Rose）在其著作《匹配》中 开宗明义地指出，匹配作为一种机制设计，可以被广泛应用于一些公共政策和筛选机制中，书中列举了 升学、医疗、择业等领域的例子。 罗斯是美国著名经济学家，市场设计理论的奠基人，2012年，罗斯与经济学家罗伊德・沙普利共同获得 诺贝尔经济学奖，因其"在稳定配置理论及市场设计实践上的杰出贡献"，瑞典皇家科学院高度评价其理 论找到了解决现实世界问题的实用方案。可见，罗斯教授不仅在博弈论、市场设计和实验经济学领域研 究颇深，且能够将相关学术理论转化为解决公共政策领域现实挑战的解决方案，经世致用，非常难得。 这本书详解了基于市场设计的匹配到底是什么，市场设计原则是什么，如何不断优化市场设计，那么有 一定经济学基础的读者也许会问：那市场设计既然不同于以价格调节为基石的市场机制，它和政府干预 的"有形之手"的区别在哪里？ 这是一个非常专业视角的问题，二者的区别是存在的。市场设计主要是确立规则、搭建平台，并不直接 参与交易或定价，只搭建框架让参与者在平台或是机制里进行匹配，市场设计多用于"价格失灵"的领 域，比如教 ...

当前，全球经济与技术格局正处在剧烈变动之中，而人工智能无疑是推动这场变革的核心力量。11月13 日，太湖世界文化论坛·钱塘对话在杭州举办，人工智能是当天嘉宾最为关注的话题之一。 当天上午，北京大学国家发展研究院院长黄益平与诺贝尔经济学奖得主、斯坦福大学荣誉教授迈克尔· 斯宾塞（Michael Spence）展开了一场深度对谈。迈克尔·斯宾塞也分享了对于人工智能投资热潮、全球 人工智能竞争格局变化等诸多问题的观察和思考。 据迈克尔·斯宾塞观察，全球股市的"疯狂"主要源于对数字领域尤其是人工智能的热情和投资驱动。不 仅科技巨头，各类企业乃至整个资本市场都在大规模投入人工智能模型研发与相关基础设施，包括量子 计算、数据中心以及电力供应等领域。从标普500指数来看，超过30%的市值集中在全球前七大科技公 司。 他坦言，市场中确实存在一定泡沫，但这种"狂热"背后反映的并非非理性，而是竞争压力下的理性选 择。"从博弈论的角度看，投资不足的代价远大于投资过度的代价。科技企业若在AI竞赛中落后两三 步，就可能被淘汰出局。"正因如此，中美两国都在不断加大投入，不愿在战略竞争中失去先机。 迈克尔·斯宾塞进一步指出，中美在人工智能 ...

经济观察网据人民财讯消息，11月13日，诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈克尔.斯宾塞在太湖世界文化论坛.钱塘 对话上谈到，美国股市已陷入疯狂，主要是由人工智能的投资热情所驱动。各大公司及市场正大规模投 资于AI模型、研发、量子计算及数据中心建设，连带推高了对电力供应的需求。他指出，当前市场中 存在一些泡沫。 他以博弈论视角解释这一现象：在战略竞争背景下，投资不足的代价远高于投资过度。以美国的科技巨 头企业为例，决策者均因惧怕落后而持续加大投入，不愿主动为过热领域降温。这导致市场高度集中， 例如标普500指数超过30%的市值集中于前七大科技公司，其集中程度"几乎前所未见"。 同时，斯宾塞警示美国面临的主权债务问题，认为当前债务水平不可持续，但脱离此路径的方案尚不明 确。目前美国经济虽然仍然保持着强劲增长，但美元近期明显贬值，可能部分反映了外国投资者对美国 金融领域风险累积的判断。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of mathematics as a fundamental tool for comprehending the essence of business and economic phenomena [2][4][30]. Group 1: Mathematical Concepts in Business - Mathematics serves as a universal language to describe the essence of various fields, including economics and business [4][30]. - The article introduces six mathematical concepts that are highly relevant to business: four basic operations, Cartesian coordinates, exponentiation and powers, variance and standard deviation, probability and statistics, and game theory [13][30]. Group 2: Application of Mathematical Concepts - The four basic operations in business can be understood through the lens of competition and cooperation, where addition represents cooperation and multiplication signifies collaborative efforts across different dimensions [33][39]. - The Cartesian coordinate system is used to analyze complex decisions, such as hiring employees based on multiple dimensions like attitude and ability, rather than a one-dimensional perspective [56][62]. - Exponentiation and powers illustrate the differences in market dynamics between industries, such as the contrast between the restaurant industry and the internet sector, highlighting the challenges of achieving significant market share in labor-intensive sectors [71][88]. - Variance and standard deviation are crucial for assessing quality and consistency in business operations, as they provide a quantitative measure of variability within a dataset [90][102]. - Probability and statistics are essential for understanding risks and making informed decisions in business, with concepts like the law of large numbers helping to predict outcomes over time [104][115]. Group 3: Game Theory in Business - Game theory is presented as a mathematical framework for analyzing strategic interactions between multiple decision-makers, emphasizing the importance of understanding the payoff matrix in competitive scenarios [122][124]. - The article discusses how concepts from game theory, such as dominant strategies and Nash equilibrium, can aid in making strategic business decisions [129][131].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting investment strategies of value investors and trend investors, emphasizing the importance of buying undervalued stocks regardless of market trends, as exemplified by notable investors like Duan Yongping and Warren Buffett [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Value investors, such as Duan Yongping, continue to buy stocks like Kweichow Moutai despite ongoing price declines, highlighting a long-term perspective that values intrinsic worth over market sentiment [3]. - Trend investors often wait for clearer signals before making purchases, which can lead to missed opportunities as they attempt to predict market movements [4][5]. - The article critiques the notion of "catching falling knives," suggesting that waiting for a stock to stabilize before buying may result in lost investment opportunities [3][8]. Group 2: Market Psychology - The difficulty of predicting market behavior is illustrated through game theory, where participants struggle to choose numbers based on others' choices, reflecting the unpredictable nature of market trends [4][5]. - The concept of "beauty contests" in investing is introduced, where investors focus on what others perceive as valuable rather than on fundamental analysis, leading to potential market bubbles [6][7]. - Historical examples, such as Keynes' shift from speculative strategies to value investing post-1929 crash, demonstrate the effectiveness of focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market trends [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Timing - The article argues against the necessity of waiting for the lowest market prices to invest, as this can lead to missed opportunities and income loss [8]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain a steady investment approach, regardless of market fluctuations, and to focus on the long-term performance of their portfolios [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment strategy of value investors, highlighting the recent purchase of Kweichow Moutai by renowned investor Duan Yongping, despite the stock's ongoing decline over the past four years [2] - It contrasts the approaches of trend investors and value investors, emphasizing that value investors do not need to predict market psychology and should buy stocks that meet value investment principles without delay [2][4] - The concept of "catching a falling knife" is explored, illustrating the risks of trying to time the market and the potential for missing out on the best buying opportunities [2][4] Group 2 - The article explains why guessing market bottoms or tops is ineffective, using game theory to illustrate that investors often fail to consider the actions of others, leading to poor decision-making [4][5] - It references the "Dollar Auction" game designed by Martin Shubik, which demonstrates how participants can irrationally continue bidding beyond the value of the item, paralleling the behavior seen in market bubbles [6] - The article emphasizes that investing is not a "beauty contest," where investors try to predict the most popular stocks, but rather a focus on the long-term fundamental value of companies [8][9] Group 3 - The article highlights John Maynard Keynes' shift from speculative strategies to value investing after experiencing significant losses, focusing on the future earnings of companies rather than market trends [9] - It cites Benjamin Graham's philosophy that investors should not wait for the lowest market prices to buy stocks, as this could lead to missed opportunities and income loss [9] - The importance of maintaining a stable stock portfolio and not reacting emotionally to market fluctuations is emphasized, encouraging investors to utilize market conditions rather than be influenced by them [9]

Core Insights - The global enterprise network faces three core pain points: lack of collaborative trust, fragmented data value, and difficulty in risk quantification. Blockchain technology offers a foundation for trusted collaboration, but a single technology cannot overcome the scalability application bottleneck [1][3]. Group 1: Pain Points - Collaborative trust is lacking due to conflicts between individual rationality and collective optimality in multinational enterprises, particularly in cost-sharing and efficiency in cross-border logistics [4]. - Data value is fragmented, with cross-enterprise data interoperability below 27%, leading to "data silos" among different ERP systems and transaction records [4]. - Risk quantification is inadequate, with traditional risk assessment methods having an accuracy rate below 60% in the face of frequent uncertainties like node failures and policy changes [4]. Group 2: Technological Framework - The integration of game theory, knowledge graph reasoning, and probabilistic graphical reasoning is essential to construct a complete technical system that adapts to the complex scenarios of the global enterprise network [3][4]. - Game theory can design incentive mechanisms that shift enterprise collaboration from "passive compliance" to "active participation," potentially reducing cross-enterprise collaboration costs by 40%-50% [4]. - Knowledge graph reasoning can enhance the semantic utilization rate of global enterprise data to over 80% by integrating heterogeneous data across domains [4]. - Probabilistic graphical reasoning, particularly using Leuven school algorithms, can improve the accuracy of global network risk warnings to around 90% [4]. Group 3: Case Studies - The TradeLens blockchain platform, developed by Maersk and IBM, addresses the freight-sharing and timeliness assurance game in global container transport by designing dynamic revenue functions [6]. - The Sia blockchain project for global cloud storage uses game theory to establish revenue-sharing rules between storage and retrieval nodes, demonstrating effective collaboration with over 12,000 global nodes and a failure rate below 0.5% [6][7]. - The collaboration between SWIFT and Chainlink in cross-border payments introduces compliance contribution rewards to address the compliance game between banks and regulatory agencies, increasing compliance rates from 78% to 99% [6]. Group 4: Knowledge Graph Construction - The knowledge graph construction process involves four steps: participant identification, strategy space definition, revenue function formulation, and equilibrium goal adjustment [7]. - The mechanism enhances global supply chain collaboration efficiency by 35% and reduces port delay incidents by 62% through strategic adjustments based on cooperation depth [7]. Group 5: Risk Quantification - The Leuven school’s probabilistic graphical reasoning quantifies risk probabilities by modeling random variables, dependencies, and probability distributions, addressing efficiency and accuracy challenges in large-scale networks [10][11]. - The Akamai CDN blockchain project employs distributed Bayesian network algorithms to calculate node failure probabilities, achieving a 91% accuracy rate in failure warnings [11]. - HSBC's global forex trading blockchain platform quantifies the relationships between exchange rate fluctuations and policy risks, reducing currency loss by 42% and improving decision-making efficiency by 65% [11]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The integration of AI with the three technologies is expected to enhance the accuracy of collaborative models to over 96% by 2027, driven by advancements in large language models and graph neural networks [17]. - The establishment of global blockchain standards is underway, led by ISO, to reduce cross-enterprise technology adaptation costs [17]. - Research on quantum-resistant probabilistic graphical reasoning is being initiated to safeguard global enterprise assets against quantum computing threats [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by sales and procurement professionals in the chip distribution industry, emphasizing the need for effective strategies to identify genuine opportunities and manage client relationships to enhance sales performance [1][2][10]. Group 1: Sales Challenges - Sales professionals often encounter clients who inquire about prices without making purchases, leading to frustration and wasted efforts [1][10]. - There is a common issue where salespeople provide numerous quotes but fail to secure any orders, indicating a need for better client assessment [10][12]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the true value and potential of clients rather than blindly quoting prices [10][12]. Group 2: Procurement Issues - Procurement professionals face pressure from competitors who can match or undercut their pricing, creating a challenging environment for securing orders [2][20]. - There is a lack of alternative sourcing channels beyond well-known platforms, which limits procurement options [2][20]. - The article points out that procurement teams often struggle with high workloads and insufficient orders, leading to dissatisfaction [2][20]. Group 3: Personal Experience and Insights - The author shares a personal journey from a procurement background to entrepreneurship, highlighting the evolution of skills and knowledge gained over years in the industry [3][4][5]. - The transition from traditional procurement roles to establishing a new business model in the chip distribution sector is discussed, emphasizing the importance of adapting to market changes [5][6]. - The author reflects on the significance of time management and data analysis in improving procurement efficiency and decision-making [4][6]. Group 4: Course Offerings - A course titled "Chip Distribution Money-Making Practical Camp" is introduced, focusing on practical strategies for identifying opportunities and managing risks in sales [9][22]. - The course aims to teach participants how to analyze client needs, understand market dynamics, and navigate the complexities of the chip distribution landscape [9][22]. - Specific topics include customer classification, negotiation tactics, and risk management strategies to enhance sales outcomes [9][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and societal implications of electric scooters (referred to as "电鸡") in urban environments, particularly in Guangzhou, highlighting the tension between pedestrians and scooter riders due to safety and parking issues [5][10][71]. Group 1: Electric Scooter Prevalence - As of the end of 2024, the social ownership of electric two-wheelers in China is approximately 425 million, surpassing the number of cars at 353 million, making them the most common short-distance travel tool [56]. - In 2023, China accounted for nearly 6 million electric two-wheeler sales, representing 78% of global sales, establishing it as the largest market for electric scooters [56]. - The rapid urbanization and the lack of efficient public transport options have created a significant demand for electric scooters as a cost-effective and efficient means of transportation [58][60]. Group 2: Urban Planning and Policy Impact - The ban on motorcycles in cities has led to a policy vacuum, where electric scooters have filled the gap, but without designated lanes, leading to conflicts with pedestrians and vehicles [60][67]. - Guangzhou's infrastructure is particularly inadequate for electric scooters, with only 32% of main and secondary roads having non-motorized vehicle lanes, compared to 90% in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [64][67]. - The historical context of urban planning in Guangzhou, which prioritized public transport over two-wheeled vehicles, has contributed to the current challenges faced by electric scooter users [67][70]. Group 3: Safety and Social Dynamics - Electric scooters are involved in a significant percentage of traffic injuries, with data indicating they account for 60%-80% of trauma cases in major hospitals in Guangzhou [72]. - The article notes a growing resentment towards electric scooters, with some advocating for their outright ban, reflecting a societal struggle to balance convenience and safety [73][75]. - The dynamics between pedestrians, scooter riders, and vehicle drivers create a competitive environment for road space, leading to a cycle of frustration and conflict among all parties involved [80][81].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the success of the children's financial literacy book "The Economics That Tells Stories," authored by investor Yang Dong, which has sold 250,000 sets and 5 million copies, becoming a bestseller in the financial literacy category for children in China [1]. Group 1: Book Overview - The book has received endorsements from notable figures such as Lin Yifu, Fan Deng, Yu Minhong, and Zhou Hongyi, contributing to its popularity on various e-commerce platforms [1]. - Yang Dong aims to cultivate business thinking in children, addressing a gap in financial literacy that he observed among entrepreneurs and business leaders [2][5]. Group 2: Educational Philosophy - Yang Dong emphasizes the importance of instilling business thinking from a young age, aligning with current educational reforms that focus on practical applications and real-world connections [5][6]. - The book integrates complex concepts like "sunk cost" and "game theory" into engaging stories, making them accessible for children [2][9]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Book - The book differs from traditional children's literature by incorporating compelling narratives with real conflicts and resolutions, encouraging repeated reading among children [8]. - It provides a comprehensive knowledge framework, allowing children to understand the evolution of business concepts through interconnected stories [8][9]. - The book includes a "knowledge bank" that explains interdisciplinary principles, seamlessly integrating subjects like psychology and mathematics into the context of business [9]. Group 4: Practical Applications - Yang Dong suggests that parents can nurture their children's business thinking through everyday conversations about commercial phenomena encountered in daily life, such as discussing the reasons behind the success of chain stores or the logistics of product distribution [7]. - The book also serves as an introduction to investment concepts, illustrating how business thinking is essential for understanding investments and decision-making processes [12][13].