专题：投资好时节 嘉实基金2026投资策略峰会 1月23日，嘉实基金2026年度投资策略峰会在上海举行。在本次峰会特别设置的嘉实基金"投资好时 节"与小红书"万物有时节"线上联名消费专场——《既要"人感消费"，也要"人感投资"》圆桌对话中， 财经博主@晓鸥姐姐担纲主持，与嘉实优享生活基金经理郭弘毅、微博财经达人@奶员外、小红书商业 金融行业负责人木暮三位嘉宾，就新消费趋势、传统消费价值及投资实践等议题展开了深度探讨。 2026年投资展望：传统消费迎来拐点，新消费聚焦成长 针对2026年投资布局，郭弘毅提出了清晰的"双主线"逻辑。一方面，传统消费领域或迎来中期拐点机 会。在过去几年持续承压后，诸多行业出现供给收缩态势（企业纷纷缩减资本开支），而需求端已显现 从高端消费逐步复苏的迹象；叠加当前估值与机构持仓均处于历史低位，该领域的风险收益比具备显著 吸引力。另一方面，新消费领域将持续涌现结构性成长机会，那些能通过产品创新、商业模式革新，精 准满足新一代消费者需求变化的品牌，拥有较强的高成长潜力。 木暮从用户行为视角补充说明，消费与金融的边界正日益模糊，呈现出"消费资产化"的鲜明趋势。例 如，黄金被视作"佩戴在身上 ...

最近AI在全世界范围内迅速升温，几乎成了一种新共识：人人都该学会使用AI，掌握者被视为"跟得上 时代"，不会用的人则隐隐被放进"迟早要被淘汰"的队列。各类鼓吹AI效率的媒体文章充斥屏端，诸 如"一个人顶一支团队"、"一个人完成一年的工作"等标题党式的口号层出不穷。 这种叙事将复杂的社 会劳动简化为单纯的算力输出，试图构建一种"效率至上"的技术乌托邦。表面上这是一场工具革命，实 际上更像一场价值重排：谁先进、谁落后；谁高效、谁低效；谁值得被投资、谁可以被牺牲。技术焦虑 因此并不只是一种"学习焦虑"，它更像一种身份焦虑——你担心的不是"我会不会用"，而是"我会不会 被归类"。 理解这种焦虑，必须先承认一件事：技术从来都不只是一套方法，它总会携带一种社会性的评价体系。 所谓"效率""进步""创新"，在不同语境中常常并不是中性的词，而是可以用来划分等级、制造边界、分 配尊严的词。人们以为自己只是在讨论工具，实际上是在讨论谁更体面、谁更可被替换。 我最近读到《镀金的鸟笼》时，对这一点感触更深。这本书写科技企业，也写一种更普遍的社会逻辑： 当一个社会高度强调工具理性时，技术转型往往伴随着对"过去"的道德审判。所谓"高科技 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior regarding gift-giving, emphasizing the importance of health and cultural significance in products, particularly during the upcoming 2026 Lunar New Year [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Trends - Consumers are increasingly seeking gifts that not only meet health needs but also convey emotional resonance and cultural value [2][3]. - The demand for health-related products in the gift market has surged, with 90.98% of consumers planning to give gifts during the Spring Festival, and 43.34% opting for nutritional and health products [3]. Group 2: Market Growth - The Spring Festival gift market has shown stable growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% [3]. - Sales of intangible cultural heritage (ICH) products on platforms like Douyin are projected to exceed 6.5 billion units in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 30% [3]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Brands are moving beyond simple collaborations with ICH symbols to deeply integrate ICH techniques with product value, exploring unique development paths in the "health + ICH" sector [4]. - Notable examples include brands like Clarins and Proya, which have created products that blend health benefits with cultural narratives [4]. Group 4: Case Study - Xiaoxian Dun - Xiaoxian Dun exemplifies the "health + ICH" model by creating products that balance cultural and commercial value, avoiding superficial use of ICH as mere decoration [6]. - The "Longma Ankang" gift box, inspired by ancient legends and crafted using traditional shell inlay techniques, reflects a deep respect for ICH while maintaining high product quality [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The annual speech emphasizes the need for businesses to shift from opportunistic thinking to long-term problem-solving in the face of economic challenges, highlighting the importance of addressing real difficulties rather than merely seeking trends [9][11][12]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The current economic environment is characterized as an "adjustment period," where many businesses face significant difficulties, leading to a collective struggle for survival and growth [9][18]. - Specific industries, such as the restaurant sector, have seen a 24.2% decrease in business-related dining and a 7.7% drop in average spending per customer, resulting in a reduction of restaurant lifespan from over two years to just 15 months [20]. - The birth rate in China has halved over seven years, impacting industries related to maternal and infant care, leading to a cascading effect on various sectors as fewer children are born [22][23]. Group 2: The Concept of "Great Migration" - The "Great Migration" is introduced as a necessary strategy for businesses to adapt and thrive amidst challenges, akin to how wildebeests migrate for survival [24][26][32]. - Companies must embrace change and seek new opportunities rather than remain stagnant in competitive markets, which are likened to overpopulated ecosystems where resources are scarce [31][32]. - Successful examples of this migration include a restaurant that enhances emotional value for customers and a baby stroller company that pivoted to producing pet strollers in response to changing consumer demographics [46][55]. Group 3: Avoiding Category Rigidity - Category rigidity is identified as a significant barrier to innovation, where businesses become too focused on existing products and fail to adapt to new consumer needs [58][61]. - The example of a fish farmer who successfully increased the price of a common fish by addressing new consumer demands illustrates how businesses can escape category rigidity by redefining their value propositions [63]. - The concept of "value reordering" is introduced, where consumers are becoming more selective about their spending, leading to a dual behavior of cutting costs in essentials while splurging on non-essentials [110][124]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior Insights - Recent consumer behavior indicates a complex landscape where individuals are cutting back on essential spending to indulge in non-essential purchases, reflecting a psychological shift rather than a straightforward economic decline [128][129]. - The phenomenon of "value reordering" suggests that consumers are recalibrating their spending priorities, influenced by external pressures and a desire for control over their financial situations [132][133].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity for businesses and individuals to undergo "migration" in response to the systemic "drought" in ecological niches, which is characterized by the end of growth opportunities and increased competition. This migration involves abandoning old advantages and moving towards new demands, capabilities, markets, organizations, and technological orders [4][5][6]. Group 1: Overall Framework - The speech is structured into eight major parts, focusing on six critical migrations that determine whether a business can survive and grow: category migration, value migration, model migration, overseas migration, intelligent migration, and demographic migration [4][6]. - The overarching theme is that in an environment of "ecological drought," businesses must strategically migrate to survive and rebuild growth [4][5]. Group 2: Major Migrations 1. Category Migration - Category rigidity arises from excessive optimization of old demands and slow responses to new demands. Innovation requires redefining problems rather than merely improving existing solutions [6][8]. - A methodology for category migration includes stopping current practices, redefining the problem, and addressing new demands [6][8]. 2. Value Migration - The consumption landscape is shifting towards a "value reordering" era, where consumers exhibit frugality in some categories while being generous in others, indicating a shift from pure price sensitivity to emotional and meaningful consumption [8][9]. 3. Model Migration - As product life cycles end, core capabilities can still migrate and create new value. The key to successful migration lies in capability assessment, market scanning, and model validation [10][11]. 4. Overseas Migration - In increasingly crowded domestic markets, "going overseas" serves as a systematic migration strategy, offering new market opportunities and validating capabilities on a global stage [15][16]. 5. Intelligent Migration - AI and smart technologies are not merely tools but cognitive extensions that redefine human-machine collaboration, altering efficiency and business models [16][17]. 6. Demographic Migration - Changes in population dynamics, such as declining birth rates and aging populations, serve as long-term demand reshapers, impacting various industries [18][19]. Group 3: Practical Recommendations - Companies should conduct capability assessments, identify three unique capabilities, and explore new applications for these capabilities in adjacent industries [19][20]. - Businesses are encouraged to view overseas expansion as a means to amplify capabilities rather than a short-term revenue fix [20][21]. - The article suggests designing emotional touchpoints and small satisfactions to enhance customer loyalty and word-of-mouth [21][22]. Group 4: Conclusion and Action Items - The conclusion stresses that when ecological conditions are harsh, migration is preferable to mere competition. The six core migrations are essential for businesses to survive and grow [22][23]. - Immediate actionable items for companies include conducting a "river crossing meeting" to reassess priorities, performing capability inventories, and experimenting with both functional and emotional product lines [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for businesses to adapt and evolve in response to changing market conditions, advocating for a "great migration" away from traditional competition towards innovative solutions that meet new consumer demands [5][59]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Industries - The restaurant industry has seen a 24.2% decrease in business banquets and team-building events, with average customer spending dropping by 7.7%, leading to a reduction in restaurant lifespan from over 2 years to just 15 months [21][22]. - The maternal and infant industry is experiencing a significant decline, with newborns in China dropping from 18.83 million in 2016 to 9.02 million in 2023, impacting various related sectors [25][26]. - Many businesses are facing systemic "ecological drought," where traditional revenue streams are drying up, leading to increased competition and reduced profitability [18][28]. Group 2: The Concept of "Great Migration" - The "great migration" is illustrated through the example of wildebeests in Africa, which must migrate to survive, paralleling the need for businesses to seek new opportunities rather than engage in destructive competition [31][56]. - Companies must make a choice between risking everything for new opportunities or remaining stagnant in a competitive environment, which is likened to the "Mara River dilemma" faced by wildebeests [49][50]. Group 3: Case Studies of Successful Adaptation - A restaurant called "烤匠" has successfully attracted customers by focusing on emotional value and creating a unique dining experience, demonstrating a shift from basic offerings to enhancing customer experience [62][64]. - AirBuggy, a premium baby stroller brand, pivoted to producing pet strollers in response to declining birth rates in Japan, successfully leveraging their core competencies to meet new market demands [72][75]. Group 4: Avoiding Category Rigidity - The article discusses "category rigidity," where businesses become too focused on existing products and fail to adapt to new consumer needs, exemplified by the case of a fish farmer who innovated by creating a premium product through a unique feeding process [84][95]. - Companies must recognize and respond to evolving consumer demands rather than clinging to outdated business models, as illustrated by the transformation of traditional products like beds and tables to meet modern needs [99][102]. Group 5: Value Reordering - The concept of "value reordering" is introduced, where consumers are becoming more selective about their spending, often choosing to save on essentials to splurge on experiences or luxury items that provide immediate satisfaction [188][210]. - This shift in consumer behavior reflects a broader trend of psychological adjustment to economic pressures, leading to a dual approach of frugality in some areas while indulging in others [205][206].